Marc Faber explains the state of current economic “miracle”. As the “Savior” Ben Bernanke would put it. It is a must watch if you are interested in economics and/or participate in financial markets. Marc believes we are in a massive FED induced stock market bubble that will come crashing down. Sooner rather than later. I couldn’t agree more. Definitely worth a few minutes of your time.
Why You Should Not Laugh At Marc Faber
7/22/2015 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 69 points (-0.39%) and the Nasdaq down 36 points (-0.70%)
Instead of repeating myself here for the 100th time, I will let Marc Faber tell you exactly the same thing. I agree 100% in terms of deflation, stock market, asset prices, expectations, Asia, Greek Ponzi finance, etc…. It is definitely worth 5 minutes of your time.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 22nd, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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Marc Faber Laughs At China, IMF/FED & The Stock Market Stupidity
Great interview with Marc Faber on China, Greece, IMF, ECB, FED and the stock market. I couldn’t agree more. Definitely worth a few minutes of your time. If the video doesn’t play, Click Here
Marc Faber Laughs At China, IMF/FED & The Stock Market Stupidity Google
Marc Faber: A Much More Severe Correction Is Coming
Financial media talking heads can’t help themselves. They can’t stop making fun of Marc Faber’s view by pointing out how wrong he has been over the last few years. Here is what most people don’t realize. There is a difference between being wrong and being too early. Something I have experienced firsthand after predicting the 2007-2009 meltdown as far back as 2005.
Marc is not wrong, he is early and we are working under the conditions where a bubble can be expanded much further than most “rational” people would believe. That is the environment today.
With that in mind, think about it in the following fashion. Should the S&P correct just 30% here, something that wouldn’t even bring today’s valuations back to their historical norms, it would wipe out the last 4 years of capital gains. Pardon me, the first time the S&P saw the 1,400 level was in 1999. So, it would wipe out 16 years of market progress. It all depends on your perspective.
Marc Faber Capitulates. Stocks About To Drop
Marc Faber has been one of the most outspoken and well researched bears over the last couple of years. Predicting anything and everything from an outright collapse to a prolonged bear market. With that in mind, it appears that Mr. Faber has finally capitulated on his bearish stance….
“I’m an investor, and I invest,” he told CNBC. “Do I want to buy European sovereign bonds at a negative yield where I’m sure to lose some money — not a lot of money, but some money — or do I want to be in some blue chip stocks? If I take a 10-year view, I think I will make more money in blue chip stocks.”
Listen, being a bear in a bull market is one of the most difficult things out there. No matter how good your research is, you begin to question your sanity and everything else in between. I remember shorting sub-prime lenders in 2006 and then wondering how it was possible for them to still increase in value. For another 18 months. When they did finally collapse, in the summer of 2008, some of them went from $70-80 a share to penny stocks in a matter of weeks.
Point being, I believe Marc Faber is switching to the long side at the maximum pain threshold. He is tired of this bull market proving him wrong, he is tired of everyone in the financial media making fun of him and he is tired of losing money/opportunity. Yet, there is another way to look at this. When a bear like Marc Faber finally throws in the tower, it is highly probable that the market top almost there. If not there already.
Trade Of The Century?
Marc Faber is well known for his overall stock market and economic bearish outlook, a view I mostly agree with. His trade of the century? Gold and gold miners. And while I believe gold will go higher over the next few years, my mathematical work does not show 10X or 5X or even 3X appreciation that most gold bugs expect.
With that in mind, gold is not the primary reason for this post. Watch the video below and pay particular attention to how the financial news anchor interviewing Marc is literally laughing at what Mr. Faber has to say. Her attitude is not her own. It simply represents a prevalent view that 95% of investors out there share. In other words, most markets participants are incredibly bullish as they continue to expect this overpriced market to go higher. What can possibly go wrong?
Marc Faber: Markets Are Out Of Touch With Reality.
My favorite bear, Marc Faber, brings out a number of important issues in the video below. I agree with all of them as they tend to match my fundamental analysis. Here is a quick summary of what he says.
- Too much risk in the financial system. Excessive speculation.
- Valuation are crazy.
- Market internals are deteriorating.
- Many stocks are already down 10-20%. Some momentum high flyers are already down 30-50%.
- General asset deflation is coming.
Why You Should Invest All Of Your Money In Cash. Hint….You Will Make A Killing.
Recently, I have been telling all of my friends and relatives to save and/or accumulate as much cash as they can. Better yet, to keep putting it in a 10-Year note. Assuming that they don’t actively invest/speculate in the stock market.
Stupidest investment advise ever?
Not when you are accumulating cash in order to raid the stock market at the bottom. AKA….to bathe in the blood of others. In fact, I gave the same advice in 2006-2007 or right before the collapse. Here is what happens when you accumulate cash right before or during the bear market.
First, you tend to avoid a bear market decline and losses of 30-50%. Second, you have the capital to come in at the bottom (ex: 2009) and buy the market/stocks at give away prices. Minimizing risk and maximizing gains in the subsequent bull market. Making cash one of the better investments today (because of a 2014-2017 bear market).
Marc Faber tends to agree.
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Why You Should Invest All Of Your Money In Cash. Hint….You Will Make A Killing. Google
Marc Faber Anticipates The Stock Market To Crash. Should You?
Quick Note: Our stock market mathematical and timing work does not show a crash. Rather, our work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years in an “orderly fashion”. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE
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Marc Faber Anticipates The Stock Market To Crash. Should You? Google
Market Watch: Is Marc Faber right that U.S. stocks could crash?
Writing ahead of the Fed announcement, I see a lot of buzz being generated over Marc Faber’s recent comments regarding it being too late to buy U.S. stocks now.
First, allow me to preface this writing by saying that on a personal and professional basis, I am a big fan of Dr. Faber. He was among the first to really give me a chance to express my views before I began writing for major websites and appearing in the financial media. In early 2011, I shared his deflationary call and he published one of my first writings addressing inter-market movement. That writing became the genesis for the Summer Crash of 2011 call, as well as helped form my thinking in terms of big-picture macro moves in asset markets.
I thought it appropriate to write about his concerns today, which I share as well. All year long, the media has focused on the “obvious” excuses to explain weaker housing data (weather) and the breakdown in high-beta names (risk sentiment on fear of Russia/Ukraine “tensions”). None of this jibes with what the market itself has been saying for the past few months. Economic growth for the first quarter was abysmal despite the rallying cry of “ economic escape velocity” at the start of the year. Long-duration bonds and low-beta/non-cyclical sectors all along have disagreed with that narrative.
“Do what you feel in your heart to be right- for you’ll be criticized anyway. You’ll be damned if you do, and damned if you don’t.”
—Eleanor Roosevelt
Is it too late to buy U.S. stocks? It depends very much on your timeframe. I do think that from an investment standpoint, continuing exposure to high-beta U.S. stocks over a multiyear period may be sub-optimal. There remains no real reflation, and while the world is focused on Fed tapering, the real news story is a continued deflation pulse that seems unable to be reversed despite monetary action.
That is not to say there won’t be tactical periods where stocks won’t do well, but it’s clear the 2013 playbook was an anomaly and that markets are returning to historical cause and effect. I have no dog in this fight, given that I manage absolute return, non-correlated strategies and equity-sector rotation products in mutual fund and separate account formats. However, even within equities it makes sense to tactically be defensive from a sector perspective when conditions warrant.
Ask yourself if something is wrong with this picture. Small caps relative to large caps are in a crash. Yes, the word crash is appropriate given that the last three weeks have erased all of 2013’s alpha and outperformance.
Take a look at the price ratio of the Russell 2000 ETFIWM -0.56% relative to the S&P 500 SPY -0.08% below and let me know if that doesn’t make you wonder about underlying market perception changes.
From a long-only stock perspective, I am a big believer in the idea that alpha is beta rotation in disguise. A recent paper by Charlie Bilello and I showed this going all the way back to 1926, and in a second award-winning paper addressing asset allocation (to be released in the coming days), we show that going back to 1977, one should be very aware of the behavior that long-duration Treasurys express relative to intermediate. In both cases (Utilities and Treasuries), the predictors must be respected given longer-term metrics and odds that favor an aggressive or defensive posture.
Sure, the bull market may be intact, but I would much rather position where the payout is highest. From a trading and tactical standpoint, the payout is higher in two areas and two areas only, in my opinion. The first is on the notion that U.S. high-beta large-cap sector names are next to breakdown meaningfully.
The second is the emerging market trade EEM -0.36% , which has once again weakened in recent days. It pays to pay attention to underlying market dynamics when history is on the side of inter-market analysis. The U.S. consumer areas of the investable landscape look weak, and domestic areas are taking it on the chin.
That might mean Dr. Faber is going to be proven right with the benefit of hindsight. Gloom, Boom and Doom? Perhaps the reality of where we are headed lies in each of those words wrapped into one environment.