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Is It Time To Buy Russia (RSX)?

Daily Chart AJanuary 11 InvestWithAlex

1/11/2015 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 52 points (+0.32%) and the Nasdaq down 6 points (-0.12%)

While the US stock market is massively overpriced, Russian market is being sold at give away valuations. Here is another way to look at it, the capitalization of the entire Russian Stock Market is equal to that of Apple (AAPL). Both are at around $540 Billion.

I continue to maintain that Russia is the most undervalued market in the world. Let’s take a closer look at their 3 year chart – represented by (RSX)

Russia - RSX - InvestWithAlex

A number of things become immediately apparent.

  1. RSX remains in a clear long-term technical downtrend. There is nothing to suggest that the market has shifted gears into a bull leg.
  2. RSX might be putting in an important double bottom. And if this double bottom holds, RSX might soon start its Bull Market.
  3. The RTS collapsed 75% during the financial crisis and the bear market of 2007-09. Our mathematical and timing work indicates that the US will have a severe bear market between 2015-2017. If so, Russian market is likely to continue with its downtrend. 

Which interpretation is correct? 

It is too soon to tell. Yet, if you are long-term investor (3-10 years) I believe Russia represents an amazing buying opportunity. On valuation basis alone. It can’t go to zero and sooner or later this market will recover.  And considering today’s valuation levels any such recovery will be spectacular. Most likely at 10X or more.

Further and if I may, I would like to suggest a possible trigger point for the Russian bull market to start. Last week I wrote Endgame In Sight: Putin Declares War On Saudi Arabia. Will The US Respond?

If Mr.Putin is able to bring “The House of Saud” down, plunging Saudi Arabia into the chaos it deserves, the price of oil should immediately recover. Stabilizing the Russian Economy and giving RSX the pretext it needs to start a multi-year rally.

For now, it might be a little too early to invest in the Russian market. However, this investment opportunity should definitely be on your radar screen. Even in your portfolio if you are a long-term investor.

Fun fact: the Russian market is still up 2,600% from its 1998 crisis bottom.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update.January 11th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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Endgame In Sight: Putin Declares War On Saudi Arabia. Will The US Respond?

putin-salman-sword

Happy New Year Everyone!!!

It is good to be back and blogging. Quite a few things to cover over the next few days. Including today’s gap down at the open, the sell-off in China and year end window dressing. More on that in a few.

First, let’s concentrate on important macro events that will have severe consequences on the stock market in 2016. Something no one is talking about. In October of last year I have suggested that Mr. Putin end game was not to stabilize Syria, but to wipe out Saudi Arabia.  Will Putin Destroy Saudi Arabia?

Not directly, of course, but Iran has now official entered this final chapter on behalf of Russia.

The primary question now is…..will the US Government stand by its long time ally Saudi Arabia or abandon it as it did with every other government? Mr.Putin is betting on the latter and he has a one year window to get it done.

Again, to accomplish a complete victory in the Middle East Mr. Putin must destabilize and collapse Saudi Arabia. I believe that is to be his end game at the present moment. Such a development would deliver a major blow to the US in the region, cement his power and bring the price of oil back up (buy oil?).

And that might actually happen much faster than anyone believes.

Either way, get some popcorn, this will be an interesting story to watch in 2016

Z30

End Game In Sight: Putin Declares War On Saudi Arabia. Will The US Respond? Google

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Is Russia About To Annihilate ISIS?

putin-plane

My mother lives in a very nice and safe suburban neighborhood in San Diego. Yet, she is terrified of terrorists and ISIS. Thanks Fox News!!! I mostly laugh, but it is indicative of how insane most things are in this day and age.

For close to two years I have maintained that the New Cold War has started and that Russia will retaliate for Ukraine. It appears that Mr. Putin is finally ready to make his move.

U.S. warns Russia on military buildup in Syria

John Kerry was overheard saying: “God damn commies, who do they think they are? Only the US is allowed to destabilize the region and bomb the crap out of a sovereign nation without the declaration of war”.

On a more serious note, if they really go after them, Russia will be able to wipe out ISIS and all associated terrorist parties (American backed “freedom fighters” on Monday and just regular terrorist by Friday) within a few months. That should stabilize the region and stop the humanitarian/refugee disaster we are all witnessing today.

And the downside?

The profitability of American Industrial Military complex is likely to decline. There is no money in dropping expensive bombs in the middle of nowhere if there is no “perceived” threat. At least not until the next hot spot is re-ignited. Your move Mr. Obama. Tell us all again how Russia will destabilize that region, if that is even possible, and up the ante on our path to war with Russia.

z32

Is Russia About To Annihilate ISIS?  Google

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Cold War Accelerates As Ruble Plunges

cold-war-investwithalex

As I have mentioned before, forget everything else. This is the most important issue and it will impact all of us. A quick update on the subject matter.

Most people will argue against my World War 3 forecast by saying that any such war is impossible in today’s day and age. I would disagree, as would our scientific community. It is just a matter of time now. My report outlines exactly WHEN it will start.

Z31

Cold War Accelerates As Ruble Plunges  Google

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NATO Continues To Encircle Russia – War Imminent

NATO-expansion-2At times I am amazed with America. And not in a good way. We live in a country where more people care about “Caitlyn” or the color of one’s skin than the fact that this country is being run by criminally insane narcissists. That is to say, the US Administration continues on with its drive to set a clear path to war. A war that will wipe us all out.

In the meantime, China and Russia continue to forge a closer relationship. Don’t forget, China needs Russia’s massive nuclear arsenal while Russia needs China’s massive army. And the common enemy? Naturally, the US/NATO.

Meaning, things continue to develop exactly as was outlined in my book Nuclear World War 3 Is Coming Soon.When, How & Why  Unfortunately, I no longer believe the American populace is intelligent enough, by and large, to stop our government’s relentless drive towards war. A mistake we will all pay for. Tik tak…..tik tak….tik tak.

Z30

NATO Continues To Encircle Russia – War Imminent Google

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How Russia Won The War In Ukraine

NATO expansion2

I have said this since 2013 and I will say it again. There are only two reasons there is a conflict in Ukraine.

  1. NATO expansion.
  2. Russia’s willingness to go into an all out war (even nuclear war) to ensure that Ukraine doesn’t join NATO.

It is as simple as that. So, will the peace treaty hold? Well, if the EU/US/NATO stay out of Ukraine, you will see this conflict die off over time. Although an eventual regime change in Ukraine becomes unavoidable. In other words, Mr. Putin will once again setup a puppet government. To victor go the spoils.

Yet, if we see more sanctions, if we see the US military training Ukrainian army, if the US supplies weapons, if NATO continues its expansionary march……expect this war to re-ignite over night. With one primary difference. Ukrainian army is on a brink of collapse and it will be over fast. That is to say, expect Russian victory either way.

My “War Cycle Work” confirms the conclusion that this war in Ukraine will be over soon. What war cycle? The one discussed here Nuclear World War 3 Is Coming Soon.When, How & Why (Full Report) Basically, this cycle and its derivatives can predict every single war the US will fight.

Here is an example that I kept out of the report. The US entered World War 1 on April 6th, 1917. Exactly 84 years from that date (war cycle discussed in the report) brings us to April of 2001. Just 5 months shy of September 11th, 2001 and the start of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Make no mistake, the big war between Russia/China Vs. NATO/EU/US is coming. Just not yet. It will start in 2029 and it will literally devastate this planet.

Until that happens, Ukrainian conflict will go on a back burner and Russia will claim its victory. No other outcome is possible at this juncture.

Z30

How Russia Won The War In Ukraine Google

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Russia Cuts Ukraine’s Gas. What Happens Next?

sorry no gas Just when you thought the situation in Ukraine was getting better, it got worse…..a lot worse. Russia cuts gas supply to Ukraine as tensions grow.

Further, Russia suggested that it will find alternative routes to the EU market if Ukraine starts stealing EU bound gas (which is highly probable). If Ukraine tries to steal Europe-bound gas, Gazprom will develop alternative routes.

While many will make a political or a geopolitical issue out of this, I view this in a very simple light. Ukraine owns Russia close to $4.5 Billion in gas debt and it should pay. Particularly after Ukraine received a $3.2 billion bailout tranche from the IMF and another $1 Billion from the US to do just that. Or was that money already stolen? 

Z30

Russia Cuts Ukraine’s Gas. What Happens Next?  Google

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Russia and China Sign A Historic $400Bn Gas Deal. EU Freaks Out.

Russia China Pipeline Investwithalex

Mr. Putin just became a whole lot richer as Russia Signs $400 Billion Gas Deal After Decade of Talks  

Infrastructure investment from both sides will be more than $70 billion and will be the world’s largest construction project, with Russia providing $55 billion up front and China $22 billion. This is Gazprom’s biggest contract to date.

While the gas deal itself is historic, the geopolitical ramifications of this deal are much more important.

First, it will allow Russia and Putin (who will rule Russia for as long as he wants) to diversify away from the EU.  The next time either the EU or the US will threaten Russia with NATO, war or sanctions they might very quickly find their gas turned off and their economies collapsed.

More importantly, as the US continues to poke both Russia and China with their “freedom and god given righteousness” stick, Russia and China continue to form much closer ties. Such close ties will eventually turn into a military alliance to counterbalance NATO (aka the US Industrial Military Complex) in South East Asia and in Europe. Just as predicted in my report here…Nuclear World War 3 Is Coming Soon.When, How & Why

Z30

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Why Russia Should Invade Ukraine As Soon As Possible.

why russia should invade ukraine

I know this is not going to be a popular opinion, but here it goes anyway. First, let me ask you something. Have you ever been punched in the face by a 70-80 year old grandma over a piece of bread because she was probably starving to death? I have. It had happened to me shortly after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 (I was 12 at the time). The store shelves were empty, ruble worthless and people were trying just to survive in any way that they could. Even the vodka was rationed. If I remember correctly a family could get one bottle per month through government issued coupons. A lot of alcoholics reserved to drinking rubbing alcohol and cologne. I kid you not.

Today, Ukraine faces a similar fiscal Abyss. The West and the IMF will do absolutely nothing to resolve the situation. Any money or aid that will go directly to Ukraine will either be stolen or be paid out to Russia in the form of gas and other liability payments. Sure, but won’t Ukrainians have freedom and democracy? Don’t make me laugh. We no longer have freedom in the US with the NSA watching your every step. Plus, if the West is allowed to control Ukraine, you will quickly see Ukraine turn into a failed state (with Russia exerting it’s influence) or worse, a state where a proxy war between Russia and the US/NATO will rage for many years to come

The only true solution at this stage is for Russia to come in and take over Ukraine….. one way or the other. It will bring Ukraine back from an economic brink and stabilize it’s politics. This will allow Russia to turn the gas back on and immediately pump billions into Ukraine’s economy. Sure, it’s not an optimal solution from the West’s side, but it’s the best solution for Ukraine. Trust me, empty stomachs and economic/political collapse become a lot more important than an illusion of freedom and democracy being propagated by the west.  

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Why Russia Should Invade Ukraine As Soon As Possible. Google

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Why Russia Will Go Into East Ukraine & It’s Impact On The Stock Market

In a number of posts over the last couple of days I have made the case that Russia is laying the groundwork for their eventual invasion of East Ukraine. WHY? They must do so to counterbalance the US/NATO. If they don’t and Ukraine falls into Western/EU/NATO hands it will be viewed as a major defeat/disaster for Russia. Plus, Ukraine is a huge mess right now. It is literally facing a fiscal Abyss that will make the Great Depression in the US look like the tech boom of the late 1990’s.  Further, people in East Ukraine are desperate to join Russia. Given their economic catastrophe and ethnic Russian background you will see people declaring independence and calling for referendums to join Russia, just as Crimea did. This is already happening.

Kiev will respond with force to put down the uprising (already happening) and Russia will be “forced” to go in to protect ethnic Russians. I will give this a maximum of 10-14 days to fully play out and for Russia to enter East Ukraine. As you can imagine this will spark a massive fight on an international stage between Russia/West and everyone else. In fact, I would expect the economic warfare and the cold war to intensify from this point on. Putin already suggested that Russian companies should de-list from foreign exchanges to avoid future problems. You must connect the dots here.

The US Stock market is not prepared for any of this. As such, when Russia invades expect stocks to crater and gold to surge.     

why russia will go into ukraine m

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Why Russia Will Go Into East Ukraine & It’s Impact On The Stock Market Google