timing is everything

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position.

The stock market continues to “Melt Up“, setting new daily highs and in the process ending 2013 with a massive 24% gain. As of right now, the trend continues to be up. As such, there is no change in our overall position for the time being. As my mathematical work clearly shows and as I have stated numerous times here, the bear market will start shortly. Either way, we still have to wait for a technical confirmation.

Many bears have been emailing me lately and asking how is it possible that the market continues to go up. Something important has to be understood. The stock market traces out exact mathematical patterns as it moves over time. Meaning, the market is doing exactly what it should be doing. You see, there is a point located in both price and time that the market must hit before resuming its bear market later this year. Think of this point as a point on a map where all roads converge. The market must go there before reversing. All other fundamental and otherwise technical indicators, do not matter. It must hit that point before reversing. Such market behavior is the reason why a lot of people get hurt playing the “short term” fundamental game.

Back to the market. My previous updates and various fundamental issues associated with the market remain right on the money. Please click on the links below to see them.

November 22nd Report

November 15th Report.

November 8th Report.

November 1st Report.

As we continue to hold our long position while waiting for the market reversal, right now might be a good time to start thinking about how you would liquidate your holding and/or re-allocate your capital once the bear market of 2014-2017 starts.

If you would like to take it one step further, this is a good time to start researching SHORT opportunities.

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Stock Market Update, January 3rd, 2014

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position

Not much has changed since the last market update to alter my opinion. The market continue to push through its daily highs as it marches forward.

While everything I have mentioned before is still in play (Please Click Here To View Previous Market Update), …..here is the difference.

Since early September of this year I have maintained that the market is topping and will resume its bear market shortly. As of now there is categorically no adjustment to that view. Yet, I have also mentioned that there were two possible time frames for the bear to begin. September -November of 2013 or March of 2014. I have argued that if we are too see the bear market now (from September of 2013 top) the market must start its down move in October or early November of this year. As of now, that window has basically closed.

That leads me to believe that March of 2014 will be the final top (even if its lower than where we are today) before a prolonged BEAR MARKET into the 2016-17 bottom. My timing work doesn’t show any serious turning points between now and the end of the year. That means the market is unlikely to experience severe volatility between now and December 31st. The next inflection point I see is January 1st, 2014. I will discuss that later.

As such, I recommend holding a LONG position until the market tells us otherwise.

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