Tag: Stock Market

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Bitcoin (BTC) Is About To Do What ?

In early January of this year we confirmed Bitcoin’s November of 2022 bottom as a longer-term precise mathematical bottom and have suggested at the time that Bitcoin will run up to above $30K. No one believed us at the time – what else is new. 

It appears now that the proverbial Bitcoin bulls are coming back from the dead, their outlandish predictions are once again gaining steam. Not so fast….here is our latest Bitcoin (BTC) update……

BITCOIN (BTC)
Date of Analysis: October 30th, 2023

Our mathematical and timing analysis for Bitcoin shows the following…….

    • Short-term Bitcoin should remain range bound as it seeks out a mid-term top. We currently do not have any good mid-term time/price projections for this completion point. It’s a bit of a mess. 
    • Once the mid-term top arrives BTC will decline into a major bottom scheduled to arrive around XXXX of 20XX. 
    • We do have some bottom projection points, with the most likely bottom located at XXXX (+/- 100), but we would need a mid-term top point above to confirm this in full. 
    • Once the bottom arrives Bitcoin will turn into a fast mover and surge to a new all time high by about November of 20XX. This is the move to participate in. 

In summary, expect a range bound Bitcoin until a major bottom arrives around XXXX of 20XX. Then a powerful move higher to a new all time high. A more exact targeting analysis will be available as we approach the junctures above. 

If you would like to see our exact TIME & PRICE targets for Bitcoin’s (BTC) major bottom, as well as our precise turning point “targeting analysis” , please CLICK HERE

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Bull Or Bear? You Decide

Daily Chart May 14th InvestWithAlex

5/14/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 189 points (+1.05%) and the Nasdaq up 69 points (1.39%). 

As yours truly, David Stockman and Mohamed El-Erian continue to warn their followers that a big stock market decline and a severe recession are coming down the pipeline.

David Stockman: 

  • “The worldwide central bank money printing spree of the last two decades has generated massive excess capacity and mal-investment all around the planet.”
  • “What is coming, therefore, is not their father’s inflationary spiral, but an unprecedented and epochal global deflation.”
  • “So the central banks just keep printing, thereby inflating the asset bubbles worldwide. What ultimately stops today’s new style central bank credit cycle, therefore, is bursting financial bubbles. That has already happened twice this century. A third proof of the case looks to be just around the corner.”

Mohamed El-Erian: 

  • Financial markets have grown addicted to central bank easing, and that addiction could cause a heap of trouble when central banks tighten the credit spigot.
  • “It reminds me a little bit of 2007 and 2008,” when investors tried to discern when the turn would come away from easy credit conditions, El-Erian said. “I’m not so confident that I will see the turn coming, and turns tend to happen quite quickly.”

I couldn’t agree more. The only remaining question is…….are the US Equity markets currently going through a 10 month distribution or consolidation period? If distribution, the time to pay the piper may be soon at hand.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 14th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

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Bull Or Bear? You Decide Google

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Last Hurrah? Foreigners & Hedge Funds Buy Real Estate In Bulk

Dead-cat-bounce

Foreign investors are always the last to arrive. This should not come as a surprise to anyone. Just cycles repeating themselves.

Foreign Money Is Pouring Into U.S. Real Estate, and It’s Not Just Houses

As the pot of money set aside for U.S. commercial real estate grows, competition for the best properties is pushing investors to buy in bulk. Based on the pipeline, which includes the GE deal, the second quarter may be one of the biggest on record for property transactions, according to Real Capital. It’s so hard to get things on a single-asset basis,” said Janice Stanton, an executive managing director at commercial brokerage Cushman & Wakefield Inc. “You’re starting to see larger and larger transactions.

Blackstone is a prime example of the thinking above. Their investment thesis in real estate is very simple. 1. The bottom is in. 2. There is a massive housing shortage. 3. Real estate prices will continue to rise.  That sounds great, except for one thing, it’s a bunch of nonsense that can easily be discredited.

Now, remember, while these guys have been somewhat correct thus far by being one of the largest real estate buyers/investors in the nation, the market hasn’t spoken yet. All they have done is bought a huge amount of illiquid real estate that they will be unable to unload when a bear market in real estate prices resumes. As often is the case, one minute you are a financial genius and a half an hour later you are a retarded idiot (after the market moves against you).

In another sign that the “Dead Cat Bounce” for the Real Estate market is now over, Blackstone Group has announced that it’s real estate acquisition pace has slowed 70% from last years pace due to higher prices. In fact, this is the trend seen across the industry. Investors, hedge funds, institutions are all slowing down their real estate acquisitions to the tune of 70-90%.

“The institutional wave has passed,” Gray, who oversees almost $80 billion in property investments, said in a telephone interview. “It’s at a much lower level than it was 12 or 24 months ago.”

What happens next?

Easy. The real estate market might hover here for some time. Not too long thought. As soon the Bear Market of 2015-2017 hits and the US falls back into a severe recession, you will see housing going down once again. Once investors realize where we are in the real estate cyclical composition (dead cat bounce and not expansion) you will see the likes of Blackstone trying to get rid of their properties as fast as possible. With investors heading for the doors, mass volume of real estate should hit the market. Collapsing existing values just as fast, if not faster, than their initial descend between 2006-2010.

Good luck selling your 43,000 rental properties Blackstone. 

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Last Hurrah? Foreigners & Hedge Funds Buy Real Estate In Bulk Google

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Are The Bears Stupid Or Something?

Daily Chart May 13th InvestWithAlex

5/13/2015 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 7 points(-0.04%) and the Nasdaq up 5 points (+0.11%) 

Is there a party at the Hamptons during the week? The stock market remains within the confines of its “Mind Numbing” trading range. We have had the same situation in the summer of 2014. At that time I have suggested that such a low period of volatility will result in a violent move thereafter. And so it was. Today, we are facing a very similar outcome.

A massive and rather rapid stock market decline is coming later on this year. And while we won’t have a crash, considering the amount of margin debt out there, quite a few people will get wiped out. If you would like to find out exactly when this move will develop, to the day, please Click Here. 

At least for now, the bulls continue to point their finger at the bears and laugh.

Bears Beware: Bond Rout Puts Investors on the Wrong Side of Central Banks

The article suggests that it is suicidal to fight the majority of central banks today. As their primary concern remains inflationary stability and asset price appreciation.

And while the premise above sounds about right, the author and the money managers in question make a fatal mistake. They have create a direct correlation between zero interest rates/QE and subsequent asset price bubbles we are experiencing today.

That is a fatal assumptions because the link might not have anything to do with the reality. As I often suggest, the stock market traces out its exact mathematical points of force. It will decline when the TIME/PRICE are right. Not before nor after. That is to say, the stock market will start its decline when the time is right, no matter what the fundamental picture is and no matter what central banks are doing.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 13th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

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Are The Bears Stupid Or Something?  Google

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Greenspan And Paulson Expect A Sell-Off….Should You?

Alan-Greenspan-Investwithalex

The biggest “Economic Miracle”…aka… fraud of all time, Mr. Alan Greenspan thinks that A. The FED will raise rates and B. The stock market will sell-off. Mr. Paulson shares in his view.

This comes on top of Janet Yellen recent admission that the stock market is overpriced. But wait, this gets even better. Mr. Greenspan comes through with an excellent investment advice.

“The best strategy for equity investment has always been buy and hold, and forget it.  Once you start to try and trade the market. I don’t care how good you are, how smart you are, you will not beat an index fund.”

That sounds nice in theory until you are sitting at 2009 bottom with a 50-60% loss. So, let’s recap. Greenspan, Paulson and Yellen think that we are in some sort of a bubble, the rates will rise and the market will sell-off. If you still believe that today is a good time to be fully invested, well, you are on your own.

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Greenspan And Paulson Expect A Sell-Off….Should You?  Google

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What You Ought To Know About Investing In Today’s Market

Daily Chart May 12th InvestWithAlex

5/12/2015 – Another down day with the Dow Jones down 37 points (-0.20%) and the Nasdaq down 17 points (-0.35%). 

Over the last few weeks I have suggested that today’s short setup is about as ideal as the long setup was at 2009 bottom. Hence, short sellers should be thankful for such high prices.

Bill Gross introduces the same idea, but in the bond market Bill Gross’s ‘Short of a Lifetime’ Would Mean Armageddon (watch the video, it’s worth your time).

“It’s Just A Matter Of Time”

While the conversation in the link above has to do with zero yielding German bonds, the same line of thinking should apply to the US Treasury market. At some point “follow the FED” trade will fail and the yields will surge. And while I don’t think we are there yet, it is just a matter of time. As a result, my forecast remains, 10-Year Treasury note will see a double bottom at 1.4-1.5% over the next two years before this 30 year bull run in yields is over.

When it comes to the stock market, “short equity” setup we are facing today is about as ideal as it was at 2000 and 2007 tops. Very limited upside or risk (if any) and massive downside. In other words, long-term investors should heed the lessons of two previous market tops. And instead of trying to figure out how many more years this secular bull market has left (hint: we are still in a secular bear market that started in 2000), they should seriously consider shifting their portfolios to the short side or cash.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 12th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

What You Ought To Know About Investing In Today’s Market  Google

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Why The Smart Money Is Betting On Surge In Volatility

VIX Investwithalex

VIX/VXX continue to trade at the bottom of their respective trading ranges. Over the last few weeks our podcast discussed how commercials are building a massive long position in volatility.  They might not be the only ones.

Almost $100 Million of VIX Options Traded Hands in a Split Second Today

Is someone hedging or are they simply building a massive long position in volatility? While we won’t know for sure, here is what we do know.

  • The stock market has been stuck in a fairly tight trading range over the last 10 months (NYSE). Even more so over the last 5 months. Driving volatility lower.
  • Most stocks are selling at dizzying valuation levels.

Both are temporary. In other words, longer-term, someone is making a smart bet by accumulating volatility (VIX/VXX) at or near today’s levels. Once a bear market kicks in and we break out of this trading range, volatility should skyrocket. If you would like to find out exactly when we anticipate that to happen, please Click Here.

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Why The Smart Money Is Betting On Surge In Volatility Google

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Investment Wisdom Of The Day

taleb investwithalex“I was convinced that I was totally incompetent in predicting market prices – but that others were generally incompetent also but did not know it, or did not know they were taking massive risks. Most traders were just “picking pennies in front of a steamroller,” exposing themselves to the high-impact rare event yet sleeping like babies, unaware of it.”
― Nassem Nicholas Taleb

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Investment Wisdom Of The Day Google

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Just To Reach Historical Norms The S&P Must Fall 50%

PE Ratio

John Hussman, president of Hussman Strategic Advisors, believes the S&P 500 stock index would have to fall by 55 percent to reach historical norms.

“The notion that equity valuations cannot, or will not, revisit normal run-of-the-mill prospective returns (or better) in the coming decade has utterly no support in the historical record. We made similarly ‘preposterous’ but ultimately accurate statements in 2000 and 2007 about the size of the market loss that would likely complete the cycle”.

John is absolutely right and you can see the same from the chart above. The average P/E ratio oscillated around 15 over the last 120 years. And that would indeed warrant close to a 50% haircut from today’s levels.

Impossible? Here is a fun fact. Did you know that between 1899 and 1949, a 50 year period of time, the Dow barely moved. In nominal terms it gained approximately 2% a year. Inflation adjusted, it lost over 25% of its value. The same occurred between 1790 and 1860.

Any notion that we are in some sort of a new economic/financial reality is a foolish one. The stock market is in a massive bubble and it will decline substantially over the next two years. As per our mathematical and timing work. Click Here 

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Just To Reach Historical Norms The S&P Must Fall 50% Google

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Market Crash In 2016….Why Wait?

Daily Chart May 11th InvestWithAlex

5/11/2015 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 86 points (-0.47%) and the Nasdaq down 10 points (-0.20%).

A massive and rather rapid stock market decline is coming later on this year. And while we won’t have a crash, considering the amount of margin debt out there, quite a few people will get wiped out. If you would like to find out exactly when this move will develop, to the day, please Click Here. 

Over the last few months a few analysts suggested that a bear market and a possible crash will occur in 2016. Something to do with the presidential cycle, the need to have a blow off top and increased gravitational forces in Andromeda Galaxy. For instance, Analyst Says Bull Market Will Not End With Top Tech Stocks So Cheap.

Excuse my ignorance, but why exactly is it impossible for us to have a large scale decline, maybe even a crash, in 2015? 

Personal preferences and wishful thinking aside, here is our current setup…..

  • Extreme overvaluations in most sectors of the stock market.
  • Outright bubbles in Tech and Biotech.
  • An adjusted P/E ratio above 1929, 1937, 1966, 1987, 2007, etc…. tops. Only 2000 top was higher, due to the lack of earnings in the tech sector at that time.
  • The FED is about to raise interest rates.
  • Any remaining QE velocity is quickly dissipating.
  • Macroeconomic data is collapsing (previous charts).
  • The US Economy is on a verge of an official recession. Q1 growth of 0.2%. Inventory build up saved the GDP from going negative.
  • Earnings growth estimates are accelerating down (previous charts).
  • We are still in a secular bear market.
  • 10 Months of market distribution. (NYSE since July of 2014)
  • Extreme bullish sentiment.
  • Margin debt is at an all time high.
  • Fund outflows continue to accelerate (weekend update).
  • Etc….

I am sure I have missed quite a  few points, but you get the idea. Sounds like a perfect recipe for a disaster to me. The best part is, I don’t think we have to wait until 2016.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 11th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Market Crash In 2016….Why Wait?  Google