Tag: stock market forecast

Posted on

Stock Market Update, November 1st, 2013

daily chart Nov 1, 2013

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position

Not much has changed since our last weekly update. Even though the DOW set a new high by a few points, it doesn’t really matter. In fact, I will leave my last weeks update mostly intact while adding a few little things here.

1. Trippe tops spread out over weeks or months are notoriously dangerous. That is exactly where we are. They typically indicate the end of a move and beginning of a counter move (or bear market in our case). Unless the market breaks to the upside here, this might be the end. 

2. My mathematical work is showing that this energy level is tapped out. The market has no room nor energy to go higher here. That is why we are seeing the triple top. 

3. The market left a huge gap around 14,800, it must go back there before any sustained rally can take place. 

LAST WEEKS MARKET SUMMARY: Still Valid 

This is where the picture gets a little bit fuzzy.  According to my mathematical work there is no doubt that we are at the inflection point with two possible outcomes.

  1. September 2013 top was indeed the top and the bear market down leg will resume shortly.
  2. The final top (a little bit higher or lower than September 2013 top) will be set in March of 2014. Thereafter the market will roll over and begin its bear phase.

As I have mentioned many times before, my mathematical work is clearly showing that the bull is ending and the 2-3 year Bear market is just beginning.  I would call the exact date, but there is just too much interference right now.  Unless a severe down leg starts over the next 2 weeks, we will have to wait until March of 2014 for the Bear to start. Until that happens a lot of ups and downs without so much as going anywhere.  The rest of my analysis remains the same.

Over the next few weeks we will find out if the if the bear market has already started or will start in March of 2014. Should the market break below 14,600 over the next two weeks, the probability is high that we have already started the bear market leg into the final 2016 bottom.  The market is certainly going back into the 14,800 as it left a huge gap there, but a firm break below 14,600 will give us a confirmation that the bear is back.

At the same time we cannot yet ignore the technical picture with the market being near an all time high. As such, I continue to advise you to maintain a LONG/HOLD position while waiting for the confirmation that the bear market has indeed started.  

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

Posted on

Stock Market Update, October 25th, 2013

daily chart Oct 25, 2013

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position

In the last couple of updates I have mentioned that the market will bounce to the 15,300-15,500 on the DOW in order to close all the gaps and to satisfy all of my requirements. Well, we are here, what’s next?

This is where the picture gets a little bit fuzzy.  According to my mathematical work there is no doubt that we are at the inflection point with two possible outcomes.

  1. September 2013 top was indeed the top and the bear market down leg will resume shortly.
  2. The final top (a little bit higher or lower than September 2013 top) will be set in March of 2014. Thereafter the market will roll over and begin its bear phase.

As I have mentioned many times before, my mathematical work is clearly showing that the bull is ending and the 2-3 year Bear market is just beginning.  I would call the exact date, but there is just too much interference right now.  Unless a severe down leg starts over the next 2 weeks, we will have to wait until March of 2014 for the Bear to start. Until that happens a lot of ups and downs without so much as going anywhere.  The rest of my analysis remains the same.

Over the next few weeks we will find out if the if the bear market has already started or will start in March of 2014. Should the market break below 14,600 over the next two weeks, the probability is high that we have already started the bear market leg into the final 2016 bottom.  The market is certainly going back into the 14,800 as it left a huge gap there, but a firm break below 14,600 will give us a confirmation that the bear is back.

At the same time we cannot yet ignore the technical picture with the market being near an all time high. As such, I continue to advise you to maintain a LONG/HOLD position while waiting for the confirmation that the bear market has indeed started.  

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

Posted on

Secret Structure Of The Upcoming Dow Decline

Dow Jones Long Term Chart

 

The chart above represents the Dow Jones between 1986 and today. It is clear from the chart that the bear market started at the 2000 top of 11,800 and continues on today even though we have already set two higher tops. Typically the bear/bull markets alternate in a 17 year cycles, so we have another 3-4 years to go before this bear market is over.

However, that is a side point to my main point. What I want you to observe is the structure of the declines between 2000-2003 and 2007-2009. The decline we had in early 2000’s was a more orderly decline with lots of ups and downs, plenty of time (2.5 years) and not to much directional energy. The move in 2007 was quite different. It was directional, it was short (1.5 years), it was high energy and it was violent.    

What’s the point of all of this? First, my work clearly indicates that we are about to start a 2-3 year bear market. All of my technical, fundamental and mathematical work confirm that fact. 

So, what kind of a move should we expect? 

My mathematical work shows that the bear market over the next 2-3 years will be almost identical to the 2000-2003 move. A lot of volatility, overall downtrend, but not too much downside energy. That is not to say that the market will not go low, it is to say that the move over the next few years will not be a violent one. I hope this helps. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

Posted on

The Secret Of The Dow Chart

BusinessWeek Writes: Hedge Fund Chart Guru Tom DeMark Sees Dark Days Ahead

DOW JONES -invest with alex 

“The market’s going to have one more rally, then once we get above that high, I think it’s going to be more treacherous,” DeMark says. “I think it’s all preordained right now.” He feels this is probably irrespective of how and when the crippling impasse in Washington is resolved. “If you look at the new highs and new lows on the [New York Stock Exchange],” he says, “every time we made a higher high, there were fewer stocks in the index participating in that high. It’s getting narrower.” And once that happens, you typically get a collapse. The opposite looks to be true for gold, which he expects is making its low right now and should start to move up dramatically.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

I tend to agree with Mr. DeMark to a certain extent as my own work confirms parts of his analysis. There is no doubt in my mind that we are approaching a major top here in most financial markets. Now, it is just the matter of hard work to pin point it. As I accelerate my timing work over the next few months I should have an exact answer for you by the end of the year.

With that said, there are only two possibilities here (based on my work).

1. The market has already topped. Triple tops are notoriously dangerous and tend to mark the end of a bull market. We have already set 3 tops and as I have suggested before the market finds itself in an exciting spot. We either confirm a bear market here by breaking down below recent lows over the next 4 weeks or….

2. The market will top out in March of 2014. This type of a scenario resembles Mr. DeMark’s forecast above.

Either way, we are approaching the end of a bull leg and you should begin thinking about reallocating your capital in order to avoid losses during the bear market.

Will we experience 1929 type of a decline as Tom suggest? My work doesn’t show that. It shows a slow yet volatile decline into the 8000-9000 range on the DOW over the next 2-3 years. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

Posted on

The Secret To Predicting The Future

 BusinessWeek Writes: The Importance of Tuning Out the Noise

 PredictingFuture investwithalex

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 300 points yesterday on news of talks in Washington to resolve the government shutdown/debt ceiling crisis. Was it a relief rally? A head fake? Will the points disappear if the talks don’t produce results?

Who knows? I don’t. Nor does Wall Street or the finest brain cells and black boxes in Connecticut hedgie-land. Even the most powerful and decorated economists in the country were pretty much blindsided by the Great Subprime Meltdown, a trauma that chopped stocks in half in just months.

So, yes, we’re all pretty much flying blind.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

Articles such as these anger me. They perpetuate the notion that predicting financial markets is impossible and that no mortal should even attempt to try it.  If they do, they are surely to fail.  After all,  if not even “brilliant” Nobel winning economist can predict the future, what chance do you have?

Actually, a very good one.  In fact, it is very hard for me to understand why most people or our “brilliant economist” can’t see the future.  I am not by any measure brilliant, yet I could clearly see the 2007-2009 meltdown coming as early as 2005. I have even tried to warn people, yet most wouldn’t listen. Today, it is clear as night and day as well. Not only from the fundamental perspective, but from a cyclical and technical one as well. They all confirm.

Basically, the US Economy and its financial markets are about ready to roll over and go down significantly. No, it will not be an overnight drop, but it is now unavoidable.  My work indicates that it will take 2-3 years for the market to hit its lows with lots of up and downs in between. I will present my timing work over the next few months that will illustrate that a little bit better. 

My only advice is this. We are not flying blind. Ignore financial media and concentrate on reality and fundamentals. When you do, you will very soon realize exactly where we are in the economic cycle and clearly see what is coming up over the next few years. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Posted on

Stock Market Update, October 3rd, 2013

daily chart Oct 3, 2013 

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG position.

With the US Government shut down, threats of the first ever default and politicians pointing fingers at each other, it has been quite a boring week for the stock market with the Dow down about 250 points (so far) for the week and about 700 points over the last 3 trading weeks.

Let’s attribute that to normal market fluctuations. However, things are starting to get interesting. It is possible that the fundamental and the technical factors are indeed lining up for the confirmation I have been seeking for so long. Please allow me to explain.

The market has opened up a bunch of gap downs over the last 3 weeks. Some of them being as high as 15,600. That means the market will have to go back up in order to close them. As I have mentioned before, I believe the government shut down should be short lived. There are already signs that Republicans are starting to capitulate. If that happens I would expect a short term relief rally that should push stocks higher to close all the gaps.

That COULD be our point of inflection. If the market reverses itself at that point and continues lower by breaking recent lows, I would most likely welcome you to the beginning of the bear market I have been predicting. For now, we continue to wait for our confirmations.

As such and for the time being I continue to maintain my “HOLD” position for the DOW if you are long.  

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!