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Daily Stock Market Update, January 16th, 2014

Daily Chart January 16 2014

 

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position.  

1/16/2014 – The stock market is stuck in the trading range since the start of the year with the DOW being down -68 points or (-0.41%). It is important to note that the market opened with a gap down and while trading closed the “UP” gap opened yesterday. Why is that important? Market always closes its gaps. Sometimes right away and at times it takes a few years. The gap down in the morning means the market must close this gap before any reasonable down move can start. This works very well with our overall analysis and the notion that the bear market will start over the next few months. We continue to hold our overall long position as there has been no change in the overall trend. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

Daily Stock Market Update, January 16th, 2014

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Shocking Truth Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know

InvestWithAlex Wisdom 10

 

Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics: Shocking Truth Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know

    • Why you are better off managing your own money. 
    • How you can outperform the best of money managers with ease. 
    • The secret behind financial media and why you should tune them out. 
    • What to do to double your portfolio performance virtually overnight. 

Did you enjoy this podcast? If so, please review it on iTunes and share it with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

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FED Economists…Stupid, Liars or Stupid Liars?

stupid economist investwithalex

 

Reuters Writes: Fed’s Evans: Optimistic 2014 will be the year economy takes off

CORALVILLE, Iowa, Jan 15 (Reuters) – Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans on Wednesday said he’s optimistic that 2014 will finally be the year the economy “takes off,” adding that monetary policy must remain accommodative for it to do so.

Wait a second. The economy hasn’t “Taken Off” yet? I am confused. If you listen to the financial media “propaganda machine”, most investment advisors and money managers, even our own president, the economy is doing great. The stock market is up over 100% in the last 5 years and everyone is getting rich.

Of course, such statements are viewed as fallacy on the main street.  For most people, things haven’t improved. If anything, they have gotten a lot worse. The reason you are seeing “perceived” improvements has nothing to do with the real economic growth and everything to do with speculation and corruption.

Yes, corruption. If you want someone to blame, there is only one place you need to point your finger. At the US Government and the FED. They have pumped our economy full of hot air in the form of credit and speculation.

That is not without cost. Eventually, our economy and our capital markets will have to readjust themselves. When they do, there will be hell to pay. As my earlier posts indicate, the bear market is about to start and when it does, we shall once again see who is swimming naked.

At least for me, only one mystery remains.  Are the FED officials (as above) good liars or are they just plain stupid. Judging on what they did to the economy thus far, I am leaning towards the later.     

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FED Economists…Stupid, Liars or Stupid Liars?  

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Attention: Would You Like To Know The Exact Date & Time Of The Bear Market Start? Find Out Now

True Color Image True Color Image

 

Interested in knowing the exact point (in both price and time) of the bear market start in 2014? You are in luck. Below is an excerpt from my upcoming book “Timed Value” telling you exactly when. While it was already published on this blog in November of 2013, I would like to bring your further attention to this portion of the book as it contains a useful forecast. Please note how accurate it has been since its original date of publication. 

————————————————————————— 

As mentioned earlier, the 3-DV of EF today is 12,364. If we analyze the four 3-DVs above, we will soon find out that 3 different numbers closely resemble today’s value of 12,364. They are

  • DE 14,094
  • AE 13,542
  • CE 13,873

All other 3-DVs and their derivatives either fall short or are outside the scope of our analysis. You will notice that the value AE is the closest one to our present value of 12,364. That basically means the market is not yet done moving up.  It also means that once the value AE 13,542 is reached, it is highly probable that it will mark the turning point in the stock market.

Further,  as of today the value EF consists of 2 input variables. Time Value of 7,742 trading hours and Price Value of 9,641 points.  Let’s further assume that based on our research we believe that March of 2014 will be the top of the bull market and/or the move EF.  This gives us an additional 80 trading days or 520 trading hours.  By adding 520 trading hours to 7,742 trading hours we get all necessary information to make an accurate estimate of the bull market top.

In addition,  we can estimate how much the market will move up between now and March of 2014. We simply adjust our 3-DV equation to look like this

SQRT (8,262^2 + X^2 ) = 13,542

When we solve the equation for X, the X = 10,730. This value represents the PRICE portion of the equation at the completion of the move.  With today’s PRICE value being at 9,641 this means the market is likely to go up another 1,089 points (10,730 – 9,641) between today and March of 2014.

DOW PROJECTION: 16,097+1,089 = 17,186 in March of 2014

Think about this for a second and how powerful this simple calculation is. If you got your lattice structure figured out and/or you know the next 3-DV move,  you can predict with 100% certainty exactly when the stock market will top out. Not only when, but exactly where. To the day and to the point. So, while everyone else is playing the guessing game of how long this bull market will continue, you know the answer well ahead of that turning point taking place.  You know that you must hold for another 4 month in order to realize the maximum gain and then simply reverse to short position to benefit from the upcoming bear market decline.  Amazing, isn’t it?

But what if the forecast above is incorrect?

As I have mention so many times before in this book, no analyst or investor should look at any forecast in absolutely certain terms.  Until the lattice structure of the market is fully understood, there is always a possibility of being wrong. Unfortunately, understanding the lattice structure of the market is outside the scope of this book.  It is too complex and dynamic to be explained in this relatively short publication. Volumes of work must be published before clarity could be obtained. Yet, any analyst willing to put in the work, should be able to determine the underlying structure. 

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Attention: Would You Like To Know The Exact Date & Time Of The Bear Market Start? Find Out Now

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Marc Faber Confirms, We Are In A Gigantic Financial Asset Bubble

Bloombert TV: Faber: We Are in a Gigantic Financial Asset Bubble

 marc faber2

Watch The Video Here 

This should come as no surprise to my readers. I tend to agree with Marc Faber’s point of view on this.  The question is, when will the bubble pop? 

Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on your point of view, the bubble will not pop in a dramatic fashion some bears expect or anticipate. While the fundamental bearish stance is right on the money, based on my mathematical and timing work, the markets will not collapse. The market will decline to the tune of 40% over the next 3 years, but it will be a gradual (although at times volatile) process. 

Now, it baffles my mind why most people don’t see this massive financial asset bubble.  I am not entirely certain if it has anything to do with the financial media propaganda machine or simple human psychology. Perhaps a combination of both. Either way, if you don’t see the financial bubble in question I suggest you open your eyes and educate yourself. It will save you a lot of money.  

Yet, do not wait too long. The bear market is about to start. Get yourself ready.  

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

Marc Faber Confirms, We Are In A Gigantic Financial Asset Bubble

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End Of The Day Stock Market Update, January 14, 2014

 Daily Chart January 14 2014

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position. 

1/14/2014 – Just a normal day and nothing to write home about. After yesterday’s sell off the market opened with a gap up and kept going up. The day ended with the DOW being up +116 or (+0.71%). From our long term perspective there has been no change. I continue to advice to hold your long position for the time being. While over the short term the market might go down even further, my mathematical work indicates that the Bull market that started in March of 2009 has a LITTLE bit longer to go. Either way, we have to wait for a confirmation before reversing position.   

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Why The Bear Market Will Start In 2014

InvestWithAlex Wisdom 8

 

Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics. Why The Bear Market Will Start In 2014?

    • Why we are still in the bear market that started in 2000.
    • The secret behind the final leg down. 
    • Does fundamental and technical analysis confirm the bear market? 
    • When will the bear market end and how low will it go?  

Did you enjoy this podcast? If so, please review it on iTunes and share it with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

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Why Stocks Are Poised For Huge Losses In 2014

Yahoo Finance Writes: Stocks poised for huge gains in 2014: Top strategist

rocket ship to the moon investiwthalex 

Even though 2014 has started off with a whimper for the markets, Jonathan Golub, Chief US Market Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, believes that stocks could hit record highs this year.

“If we’re looking at an economy that’s probably going to grow at 2.5% this year – which is a very reasonable number,” says Golub, “that should be enough to drive something between 7% and 8% or more of earnings growth.”

“If you look at valuations, [stocks] still look very cheap relative to bond,” says Golub. “You add those two together and I don’t see why you wouldn’t have a double-digit return this year.” Golub says history shows stocks can still have a good year after a great year. In 2013, the S&P 500 had return of 29%. 

“If you look at the 10 best years over the last 75, the average return has been about 14% following really great years,” says Golub.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

The article above represents a prevailing view on Wall Street today. With bearish sentiment at an all time low, NO ONE sees any potential downside. If you are to listen to the main stream financial propaganda machine and most of the large banks, the stock market is going to the moon and beyond. 

Yet, for any reasonable investor this time period should represent a perfect opportunity to pause and reflect on where we really are. Let’s think about this for a second….

Is our economic recovery real?

NO. The main street is not feeling any type of an economic recovery. With poverty rates being at 50 year highs and with “real unemployment” pushing over 15%, only financial entities have been able to benefit from any type of an economic recovery.  Once again, the perceived economic recovery has been driven by massive infusion of credit into the financial system through QE, low interest rates and speculation.    

Is the stock market overpriced?

Absolutely. While everyone will have their own definition of “overvalued”, as a value investor, I cannot find anything to invest in.  Everything is overvalued and the prices I see today are reminiscent of 2000 and 2007 time frames.  However, if you enjoy buying $1 bills for $5, go for it.

Is there extreme Bullish sentiment?

Yes. Most sentiment indicators show that most bears have been killed. Some of the bullish sentiment readings are at an all time highs. Higher than 1987, 2000 and 2007.  

What does history teaches us about such times?

Well, the history teaches us that such times are dangerous. Listen, there is no doubt that the market is overpriced and highly distorted by credit and speculation. This cannot continue for an indefinite period of time. No matter what, the markets always readjust themselves.  As my mathematical work clearly indicates, the bear market is about to start in 2014. Get yourself ready. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

Why Stocks Are Poised For Huge Losses In 2014

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Stock Market Update, January 10th ,2014

daily chart Jan10, 2014

 

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position. 

Make no mistake. A severe bear market is coming and will start in 2014. That has always been my position and my advanced mathematical work confirms. If you would like to get a little bit more information, please click on the report at the bottom of this post to learn more. 

Fundamentally speaking, there is no reason for the market to be at these levels. The rally you see has been caused by a number of things. 1. Massive credit infusion into the financial markets/economy in the form of QE by the FED to the tune of $85 Billion per month. 2. Pure speculation and people panicking into stocks. 3. Market structure based on my mathematical work. Also known as, the market must complete its up move before reversing downward. 

Technically speaking, while the market is showing signs of a fatigue and a roll over, this is not yet the top.  Either way, we have to wait for a technical confirmation before reversing position. My previous updates and various fundamental issues associated with the market remain right on the money. Please click on the links below to see them. 

November 22nd Report

November 15th Report. 

November 8th Report.

November 1st Report.

As we continue to hold our long position while waiting for the market reversal, right now might be a good time to start thinking about how you would liquidate your holding and/or re-allocate your capital once the bear market of 2014-2017 starts.

If you would like to take it one step further, this is a good time to start researching SHORT opportunities.  

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!  

 Stock Market Update, January 10th, 2014

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Why You Shouldn’t Be “Panic Buying Stocks” Right Now

Bloomberg Writes: Bull Market Has Years Left  for Shaoul on S&P 500 Values

 panic-buying-investwithalex

Valuations in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased by the most since the financial crisis last year as 460 stocks rose, more than any year since at least 1990. Neither are reasons to bet against equities now.

While Wall Street strategists are the most cautious in almost a decade after the broadest U.S. rally on record sent price-earnings ratios up 19 percent, expanding multiples have preceded advances twice as often as they have retreats, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Since 1936, the S&P 500 (SPX)has risen 69 percent of the time following quarters when valuations widened, the data show. The average return is 14 percent in years after more than 400 constituents climbed, according to data compiled by Strategas Research Partners.

“One sign that things are becoming more popular is they’re more expensive,” Michael Shaoul, the chief executive officer of Marketfield Asset Management LLC, which oversees about $19 billion, said in a Jan. 2 interview in New York. “I would be quite surprised if this bull market didn’t continue for another two to three years.”

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

Most people, smart money, dumb money, institutions and money managers are panicking into stocks.  I didn’t think it was possible, but as surely as night follows day, human psychology doesn’t change.

This is particularly true just a little under 5 years after everyone got their head handed to them during the 2007-2009 decline. A fascinating thing to watch from the psychological perspective particularly because we know, based on my mathematical timing work, that the last phase of the bear market is about to start. When we look at the market from such a perspective a number of things become apparent. First, even though the “real” fundamentals are terrible, if you are to listen to most people in the financial media the fundamentals have never been better. Then you have everyone predicting the continuation of the bull market for at least a few more years. To infinity and beyond.  

Finally, there is a tremendous amount of psychological pressure on everyone to be back in the market. It seems like everyone is making money hand over fist and only the real BIG IDIOTS remain on the sidelines. Yet, we know the opposite is true. What we are witnessing now is the blow off phase of the bull market that is about to complete. Please do not forget that.

Interested in knowing exactly when the bear market will start? Please check out our premium section. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

 Why You Shouldn’t Be “Panic Buying Stocks” Right Now