Tag: Stock Market

December 12, 2013December 12, 2013

If you would like to take it one step further, this is a good time to start researching SHORT opportunities.

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Stock Market Update, December 13, 2013

What Jim Rogers Thinks You Should Know About Gold

Daily Ticker Writes: Jim Rogers Forecasts a Drop to $900

Commodities investor Jim Rogers tells The Daily Ticker that gold, having lost its luster as a safe haven, could drop to $900 or $1,000 in the next 1-2 years. Longer term, he has a very different forecast. Gold will soar to “well beyond $1,900 an ounce,” topping its record $1,920 high reached in September 2011, says Rogers, author of Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets. The reason: “massive currency debasement” around the world. “Every major central bank in the world is printing a lot of money plus war, chaos, riots in the street, governments failing,” says Rogers.

Despite that forecast, Rogers warns investments not to consider gold – or any other investment — safe. “I would never use the word ‘safe’ when I’m speaking about investing.”

There are only a few investors that I listen to when they speak. Jim Rogers is one of them. A brilliant and very interesting guy. So, when he says something you better listen. I highly recommend that you click on the link and listen what he has to say. The video is just 2 minutes long.

My stock market timing work kind of confirms his thesis on gold. I already talked about gold in one of my previous posts CLICK HERE and the fact that I don’t really understand it or know how to value it properly.

Jim mentions that he anticipates gold to decline further over the next few years to shake out the bulls before resuming its bull market due to currency debasement and inflation. My work confirms this as a highly probably scenario.

As the markets and the economy decline over the next few years in a deflationary environment, so should the gold. As we bottom in 2016 and begin the inflation cycle I talked about before, gold should start appreciating. Perhaps significantly. Just my two cents.

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December 5, 2013

Stock Market Update, December 6th, 2013

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position.

Even though the market has reversed itself, just a little bit, there is no change in our overall position for the time being. As my mathematical work clearly shows, the bear market will start in 2014. If you would like to know the exact date of the turn, I will make that information available in early 2014.

For now, the market continues to linger around its all time highs. My previous updates remain right on the money. Please click on the links below to see them.

November 22nd Report

November 28, 2013November 28, 2013

If you would like to take it one step further, this is a good time to start researching SHORT opportunities.

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Stock Market Update, December 6th, 2013

Stock Market Update, November 29th, 2013

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position.

Once again, no change since the last market update to alter my opinion. As my mathematical work clearly shows, the bear market will start in 2014. Would you like to know the exact date of the turn? I will make that information available in early 2014.

For now, the market continues to push through it’s daily highs, behaving as anticipated. My previous updates remain right on the money. Please click on the links below to see them.

November 22nd Report

November 27, 2013November 27, 2013

If you would like to take it one step further, this is a good time to start researching SHORT opportunities.

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Stock Market Update, November 29th, 2013

A Secret Way To Make A Killing In The Stock Market Over The Next 12 Month

BloombergWrites: Subprime Loans Are Boosting Car Sales

A woman came into Alan Helfman’s showroom in Houston in October looking to buy a car for her daily commute. Even though her credit score was below 500, in the bottom eighth percentile, she drove away with a new Dodge Dart. A year ago, “I would’ve told her don’t even bother coming in,” says Helfman, who owns River Oaks Chrysler Jeep Dodge Ram, where sales rose about 20 percent this year. “But she had a good job, so I told her to bring a phone bill, a light bill, your last couple of paycheck stubs, and bring me some down payment.”

The New York Times Writes: New Boom in Subprime Loans, for Smaller Businesses

A small, little-known company from Missouri borrows hundreds of millions of dollars from two of the biggest names in Wall Street finance. The loans are rated subprime. What’s more, they carry few of the standard protections seen in ordinary debt, making them particularly risky bets.But investors clamor to buy pieces of the loans, one of which pays annual interest of at least 8.75 percent. Demand is so strong, some buyers have to settle for less than they wanted.

A scene from the years leading up to the financial crisis in 2008? No, last month.

It’s scary how predictable human animal is from the psychological perspective. In fact, contrary to a popular believe human psychology IS the primary driver behind the stock market volatility.

Just two quick observations. First, as the articles above indicate the subprime is back in a big way. In 2003-2007 it was the real estate market, where anyone who could (and even those who couldn’t) fog a mirror could get a massive real estate loan. Today you can see the same situation in car loans and loans for small businesses. Thank god the amounts are smaller. Second, the speculative bubble and the frenzy building in the stock market. Everyone is falling over each other predicting the Dow 20,000 or up +40% in 2014. Of course, exactly at the wrong time.

Where were these people at 2009 bottom? Did any of them predict the DOW going up over +150% between 2009 and today? Of course they didn’t. They were too busy screaming that the world is about to end and we are on the verge of another great depression. Now, with credit easily flowing again, we are committing the same mistakes. Those who can take a step outside the box should now be able to see how easy it is to profit from such insanity.

As I have said so many times before, the bear market will start in 2014. Get ready to short overvalued garbage and make a killing.

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A Secret Way To Make A Killing In The Stock Market Over The Next 12 Month

November 24, 2013November 24, 2013

What Everybody Ought To Know About Upcoming Emerging Market Crisis

BusinessWeek Writes: Bad Loans Could Spark an Emerging-Markets Crisis

The world’s largest emerging markets recovered quickly from the 2008 financial crisis because consumers and companies went on a borrowing binge. Now, as those economies cool, bad loans are haunting banks from Turkey to South Africa. India is injecting money into state-run lenders facing a huge rise in soured debt, and Chinese banks have been told to increase provisions against lending losses. “Credit growth in emerging markets has been phenomenal since 2008,” says Satyajit Das, author of a half-dozen books on financial risk.

He blames near-zero-percent interest rates in the U.S. and other developed nations, which have kept borrowing costs artificially low. “Many borrowers will struggle to repay the debt,” he says. “We’re ripe for a new emerging-market crisis.”

Read The Rest Of The Article

Could spark an emerging-markets crisis? You think? How about will spark an emerging-market crisis. How about its already happening in countries like India with their currency being in a free fall.

This is a systemic issue that comes from a singular source of low interest rates propagated by the FED. Of course everyone will borrow as much as they can when financing is flowing freely and interest rates are close to zero. Particularly those in a week financial position. It allows them to survive for a little bit longer and they have nothing to lose. Yet, there is no chance in hell that these companies or borrowers can ever repair these loans. Particularly not when both the US Economy and its financial markets are facing strong headwinds. The outcome? Massive defaults and substantial equity price declines in most emerging markets.

Especially when you take the 2014-2017 bear market in the US into consideration (forecasted based on my mathematical timing work). While the US market is set for a 30-50% haircut, most emerging markets will not fare as well.

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November 21, 2013

Stock Market Update, November 22, 2013

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position.

Once again, no change since the last market update to alter my opinion. The market continues to push through it’s daily highs as it marches forward. My previous updates remain right on the money. Please click on the links below to see them.

November 21, 2013November 21, 2013

As we continue to hold our long position while waiting for the market reversal, right now might be a good time to start thinking about how you would liquidate your holding and/or re-allocate your capital once the bear market of 2014-2017 starts. If you would like to take it one step further, this is a good time to start researching SHORT opportunities.

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Stock Market Update, November 22, 201

Warning: The Biggest Market Story No One Is Talking About

Everyone is running their mouth. Bernanke is talking about indefinite QE, Yellen is saying that she will accommodate the markets any way that she can and Larry Summers is talking about 0% interest rates to avoid economic depression. All of that is garbage.

The only thing that truly matter is the 10-Year Note chart above. As you can see the chart is extremely bullish. I have said numerous times here, it is fatal to believe that the FED’s can control interest rates. They can influence them over the short term, but interest rates will behave as they should over the long run. The chart above clearly indicates that interest rates have reversed their course and are climbing up. Given massive amount of leverage and speculation in the system, even a misery 0.5% increase from this point on will have huge negative consequences. Should interest rates zoom up within a short period of time (which they might) there will be hell to pay.

This is the most important trend to watch going forward. So far the trend is incredibly bullish (for interest rates). This plays very well into my forecast of the bear market starting in 2014. This confirms it.

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November 19, 2013

Your Secret Invitation To The Bull Orgy. Please RSVP asap.

Bloomberg Writes: Junk Glistens Under ‘Bernankecare’ as Worst Stocks Win

Carl Giannone says he’s given up hunting for quality stocks. Now he’s simply riding the wave of upward momentum in the U.S. market. “It’s a game of musical chairs,” said Giannone, who manages an equities team at T3 Trading Group LLC in New York. “You just want to make sure you can sit down.”

The Federal Reserve’s near-zero interest rate turns five years old next month, the longest period without an increase in history. Coupled with more than $3 trillion of asset purchases, it adds up to “Bernankecare,” said Joshua Brown, chief executive officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management in New York. And it’s causing parts of the market to behave strangely. Stocks of companies with weak balance sheets are rising twice as fast as stronger ones; junk borrowers get rates lower than their investment-grade counterparts did before the credit crisis; and initial public offerings are doubling on their first day of trading.

While in the minority, some investors say prices have climbed so high it’s possible to look ahead and see an ugly end.Laurence Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., the biggest U.S. money manager, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Nov. 12 that he feared a bubble and the Fed ought to quit buying so many securities.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

Have you ever seen a real bull orgy? I haven’t, but a fathom it would be a fairly gross site to feast your eyes upon. Luckily for you can see an artificial one by turning on CNBC or reading any other kind of financial media. Bulls are salivating over each other, predicting the DOW at 20,000, 25K, 50K, to infinity and beyond. It’s quite entertaining to watch.

The article above is right on the money. At this stage everything is in the speculative bubble that will pop and it has become a game of musical chairs. However, that is not why I bring this up. I want to point your attention to a psychological breakdown of market participants. We all know the saying “Buy Low Sell High” or “Buy When There Is Blood On The Streets”, yet not a single person I know actually does it.

Case and point, March 2009 bottom. Not a single person I know, not on TV or elsewhere advocated buying. No, they were all talking about the end of the world, how low the market will go and what stocks to short best. The blood was running on the street, the stocks were being given away and these fools couldn’t see the forest through the trees. Now the situation is completely reversed. When everyone should be selling and/or going short, everyone is screaming BUY, BUY, BUY. It’s a fools game and if you buy today you are that fool. I guess human psychology, the primary driver behind the stock market, will never change.

With such a backdrop it is very nice to know exactly when the Bear leg of 2014-2017 will start and the damage it will do. While Bulls are busy having their orgy, the market is getting ready for a massive haircut. You have been warned.

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November 15, 2013November 15, 2013

Stock Market Update, November 15th, 2013

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position.