Tag: stocks

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The Future Of Cooking & How To Make Money Off Of It

In the late 1990’s GreenMountain/Keurig Coffee Company (GMCR) introduced the first generation of their at home/office coffee machines. And if you would have invested $10,000 in GMCR in 1999 you would have close to $5 Million today (50,000% ROI). That’s just one of the reasons as to why it makes sense to pay attention to future kitchen technologies.

I present you you Robo Chef: ROBOT CHEF THAT CAN COOK ANY OF 2,000 MEALS AT TAP OF A BUTTON TO GO ON SALE IN 2017

While the version above is bulky and probably expensive, it is just a matter of time before someone develops a cheaper and more compact product. When they do, it is likely to be incredibly popular. So, keep your eyes open for the company that does. The rewards are likely to be significant.

Z30

The Future Of Cooking & How To Make Money Off Of It  Google

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Put Option Cost At An All Time High, Crash Coming?

business headlines about our worldLong-term crash protection put option cost has doubled.Traders pay up for crash protection-time to worry. Just a structural change or an ominous sign of things to come?

“Long-dated crash put protection costs on the have more than doubled over the past 9 months,” a Goldman Sachs options research team led by John Marshall wrote. “We believe it is an important development to watch as it implies investors are increasingly concerned about downside risk even as U.S. equities trade near all-time highs.”

Specifically, the options that have more than doubled in value are 55 percent out-of-the-money puts that expire in five years. That is to say, in order for these derivatives to pay off come expiration, the S&P would have to lose more than half its value over the next five years.

“We see reason for concern as put prices were up a similar amount in 2007 ahead of the financial crisis, diverging from credit and equity at that time as well.”

This is a complex matter to discuss and the increase above could be caused by a number of different things. Changing dynamics in the options markets, hedging, balance sheet issues, etc…. With that in mind, maybe some smart folks are building large short positions in an anticipation of a large decline or worse, a crash. That would make even more sense.

Z31

Put Option Cost At An All Time High, Crash Coming?  Google

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Dream Big & Speculate Away

Daily Chart April 14 2015

4/14/2015 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 60 points (+0.33%) and the Nasdaq down 11 points (-0.22%).  

Everyday I attempt to bring you a few more data points in order to illustrate that we are in a massive financial bubble. We have two more today. First, Mr. Cramer.

Cramer: Go for it! Dream big for your portfolio

Where Mr. Cramer tries to convince me that I am just not intelligent enough to understanding proper valuation techniques.  You see, its not that Netflix, Facebook, Twitter, Alibaba, etc…. are overvalued, I am just too stupid to understand how to value them properly.

Cramer thinks that some stocks are undervalued simply because investors just can’t think big enough and imagine what could happen in the future. And there could be big bucks in store if investors try to think outside of the box.

So, dream big and buy on margin. After all, it appears we live in a world where valuations no longer matter. Call me crazy, but I think Mr. Cramer had the exact same view at 2000 and 2007 tops.

Second, about a month ago Mark Cuban brought up the issue of a massive venture capital bubble and its illiqudity. I wrote about it earlier What Most People Don’t Know About Mark Cuban’s Bubble Call. It also important to note that the same bubble exists in today’s private equity funds. Well, at least in their attempts to take this junk public at incredible valuation levels (watch the video below).

That is to say, the game of musical chairs continues to intensify. In both private and public markets. When will it stop? Based on my work, we do not have that much, if any, time left. Big losses are ahead.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 14th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

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Dream Big & Speculate Away Google

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Why The FED Has No Clue

Daily Chart April 13 2015

4/13/2015 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 81 points (-0.45%) and the Nasdaq down 8 points (-0.15%). 

The stock market continues to behave as forecasted. If you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here.

Despite the appearance of having complete control over our financial markets, the FED might lose that power of perception fairly soon. And once the FED trade goes, the markets should implode. I have long argued that the FED has no idea of where we are and what their reckless QE and zero interest rate policy has done.  Case and point…..

Exclusive: Fed’s Williams sees less risk of rate retreat after lift-off

“So even if the economy got some bad shocks, really you are probably just talking about flattening that path out a bit, or maybe raising rates more slowly.”

Economic lift-off……what economic lift-off? See, I told you they were clueless. Over the last few months I have presented at least a dozen data points showing that the US Economy is rolling over and accelerating down. (Ex: chart below). Plus, forward earnings and guidance are expected to be adjusted lower due to the strong dollar and the same economic issues. We should see the evidence of that in Q-1 reports.

Finally, no matter what the FED says, asset bubbles do not translate to strong economic growth. The view Mr. Williams has is identical to the view Mr. Bernanke held in Q-1 of 2008. As the FED minutes revealed, Mr. Bernanke was concerned about overheating the economy and the housing sector. The 2007-2009 bear market was pushing into its 6th month by that point.

That is to say, don’t rely on the FED to make your investment decisions. And if you do, you will pay dearly for it.

Macrodata

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 13th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

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Why The FED Has No Clue Google

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The Secret Behind This Hedge Fund Manager’s Market Collapse Prediction

crispin odey

I firmly believe that the only people investors should be listening to right about now are the people who got 2000 and 2007 meltdowns right. Everyone else is just blowing smoke. Crispin Odey, the founder of London-based Odey Asset Management, is one of those people. He does not hold back….

“I just think that you and I have got grandstand seats here [to an imminent market shock] and my point is having found myself in the second quarter of last year selling a lot of equities and starting to go short, I found out just how illiquid it all was. You never actually see it until people try and get out of these things.”

That’s quite a powerful statement and I wholeheartedly agree.  A lot of gold in this The Sydney Morning Herald article and it is definitely worth 5 minutes of your time.  He goes on to say…

“For me, what I find very interesting is given the risk of recession, how is it the West stock market can be hitting all-time highs? History tends to be not very generous in this regard. If you get a recession in a low inflation environment it tends to impact the ratings of stocks dramatically. It was akin to “watching the markets take drunken bow after drunken bow. It’s amazing that nobody else is on the same page.”

The upcoming recession and the approaching stock market meltdown are so easy to see, I am not sure why the 99% go on missing it. The attitude was exactly the same at 2000 and 2007 tops. Greed or stupidity? I am not sure, but it is amazing indeed.

Z30

The Secret Behind This Hedge Fund Manager’s Market Collapse Prediction  Google

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Too Much “Bearishness”….Is The Market About To Bounce?

1

My subscribers knew since at least the end of November that December 27th, 2014 would mark a turning point. The Dow topped out on December 26th and never looked back. Thus far. Yet, the slew of bearish articles should cause some concern to those participating on the short side. Here is just a small sample.

My question is…….where were these people at the end of December when most indices were sitting at an all time high?

While late to the party, the articles above bring up a number of important issues that I have been talking about for at least a year. Primarily, the fact that today’s valuation/speculation levels are at levels unseen since the 2000 and 2007 tops. In terms of the next move, up or down, it would be too dangerous to mention it here without sufficient understanding and analysis behind it. With that in mind, if you wold like to find out what happens next, bull or bear, please Click Here.

z32

Too Much “Bearishness”….Is The Market About To Bounce?  Google

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The Extent Of China’s Credit Bubble

The chart below speaks for itself and the extent of Chinese Credit Default time bomb. Please note, this chart doesn’t include China’s so called “Shadow Banking” assets which are estimated to be at an additional $6-10 Trillion. In short, China makes US Credit Infusion by the FED look like child’s play. When China finally blows sky high, it’s defaults will be as massive at the credit expansion below. 

China Bank Assets InvestWithAlex

 

The Extent Of China’s Credit Bubble

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Fisher, The Only Honest Member Of The FED: Stocks Are At “Eye-Popping Levels”

I have a lot of respect for Richard Fisher, the head of FED Bank of Dallas. He has been consistently honest. While Greenspan, Bernanke and now Yellen tend to blow smoke up everyone’s ass, Fisher has the tendency to call it as he sees it. 

His comments (see the article below) are, once again, right on the money.  I have already demonstrated  a number of times on this blog why the stock market is incredibly overpriced…. by any measure.

While a lot of money managers would argue that the stock market is not overpriced based on simplistic P/E ratio, they are missing the point. Corporate earnings have been driven by the same credit that has been driving this stock market rally. When credit dissapears, so will the earingins. Making today’s market incredibly expensive. More expensive than 2000 and 2007.

Will that lead to a similar collapse? I am not at liberty to say due to my obligations, but you can find the answers you seek here.  

Here is just one indicator of overvaluation. 
market to gdp

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Fisher, The Only Honest Member Of The FED: Stocks Are At “Eye-Popping Levels” Google

Richard Fisher

Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, on Wednesday said he was concerned about “eye-popping levels” of some stock market metrics, and said the central bank has to monitor the signs carefully to make sure another bubble isn’t forming.

In his speech in Mexico City, Fisher said some indicators like the price-to-projected forward earnings, price-to-sales ratios and market capitalization as a percentage of GDP, are at levels not seen since the dot-com boom of the late 1990s. He noted that margin debt is pushing up against all-time records. “We must monitor these indicators very carefully so as to ensure that the ghost of ‘irrational exuberance’ does not haunt us again,” Fisher said. While a few Fed officials have mentioned unease about stock prices, Fisher’s comments are the most pointed to date.

Fisher did not spare the bond market, saying that narrow spreads between corporate and Treasury debt “reflect lower risk premia on top of already abnormally low nominal yields.” Fisher is a voting member of the Fed’s monetary policy committee this year. He has been a strong opponent of the Fed’s latest round of asset purchases.

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EU Fools Throw Away $15 Billion. Just A Regular Day At The Office.

You got to love EU Bureaucratic fools. Their own Union is basically insolvent and on the verge of a collapse, yet they are doing their best to waist another $15 Billion on an illegitimate Ukrainian government that paid snipers to kill innocent people two weeks ago.

Last time I checked Cyprus and Greece were in technical default. With Italy and Spain not that far behind and with French socialist party doings its best to drive out businesses and high net worth individuals, Germany is the only sane country left. However, with EU throwing their money away, the question is……for how long? 

Also, get a load of this, “the EU package is designed to assist a committed, inclusive and reforms-oriented government in rebuilding a stable and prosperous future for Ukraine,” Don’t make me laugh EU. Say goodbye to your $15 Billion, on top of $1 Billion from the US. You will never see it again. 

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EU Fools Throw Away $15 Billion. Just A Regular Day At The Office.  Google

EU Fools

BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union is ready to give Ukraine 11 billion euros ($15 billion) in loans and grants over the coming years to help stabilize its economy, the head of the bloc’s executive arm said Wednesday.

The aid comes on top of $1 billion in energy subsidies the United States pledged Tuesday. It will help support Kiev while it negotiates a broad bailout program with the International Monetary Fund.

The EU package is “designed to assist a committed, inclusive and reforms-oriented government in rebuilding a stable and prosperous future for Ukraine,” Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said.

The aid will include 1.6 billion euros in loans and 1.4 billion euros in grants from the EU budget and at least 8 billion euros fresh credit from financial institutions run by or controlled by the EU and its member states, the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

The package foresees helping to modernize Ukraine’s gas transit system and providing technical assistance ranging from judicial reform to assistance in preparing elections, the Commission said. The package also calls for steps to accelerate achieving visa-free travel for Ukrainians to the 28-nation bloc.

That measure, if approved, would go down particularly badly in Moscow, since Russia has sought visa-free travel to Europe for its citizen for years. Suspending discussions on that project are among the measures EU leaders will consider at an emergency meeting Thursday to punish Russia over its occupation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula.

 

Coincidentally, the headline figure of $15 billion for the EU’s aid package is the same amount that Russia was prepared to grant Ukraine in loans until the government of President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted last month.

Yanukovych took the Russian loans instead of a wide-ranging trade and economic agreement with the EU, a move that fuelled the protests that led to his ouster.

Barroso said that agreement was still on the table, and the EU is prepared to provisionally grant Ukraine the benefits deriving from it before a full ratification. Ukraine’s industrial and agricultural exporters could save some 900 million euros annually through reduced tariffs, the Commission said.

“The situation in Ukraine is a test of our capability and resolve to stabilize our neighborhood and to provide new opportunities for many, not just a few,” Barroso told reporters in Brussels. “We need to be up to this challenge.”

The timeline over which the EU funds and loans would be disbursed varied from a few hundred million euros this year to multi-billions between now and 2020. The details were left vague because the situation in Ukraine is still uncertain and negotiations between Kiev and the IMF are ongoing, EU officials said.

Most disbursements will likely hinge on the formation of a new Ukrainian government after elections in May and an agreement on wide-ranging reforms with the IMF. The fund will likely insist, among other things, on a currency devaluation and a sharp hike to natural gas prices, which Ukraine subsidizes heavily.

Ukraine estimates it needs $35 billion in international rescue loans over the next two years.