Tag: stocks

Posted on

Is Obama Causing Ukraine’s Meltdown? Plus, Market Update

Ukraine has two things in abundance. Beautiful women and people stupid enough to believe that the EU and/or Obama will come to their rescue. 

Today President Obama warned Ukraine’s government against crossing the “Red Line” against its citizens and using force. Truly, I am in disbelief.

First, Obama administration works behind the scenes (aka covert CIA Operations or some crap like that) to instigate Ukrainian instability and uprising, then Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland says “Fuck The EU” for the whole world to hear.

So, what business does the USA has interfering in Ukraine’s and Russia’s business? 

Well, it shouldn’t, but for some reason it does. It is either because the US completely lost all of it’s marbles or because Obama would like to get back at Putin. Apparently, the negative propaganda spin through western media is not doing it’s job. Whatever it is, I think Obama is about to look stupid again. Just as he ended up with Syria and Iran. 

The only way Ukraine will join the EU or the West is over Putin’s dead body. Make no mistake, he controls it and he will not let it go. No matter how many protesters they will have to kill. For Russia, losing Ukraine to EU would be equivalent to the USA losing Kentucky to Cuba.  Not happening.

I just hope that the situation resolves itself without any further bloodshed.  The next few days will be very critical.  

Obama-Red-Line

MARKET UPDATE: 

2/19/2014 – An across the board down day with the Dow Jones down -89 points (-0.55%) and the Nasdaq down -35 points (-0.82%). 

The Dow started the day by zooming up into our previously suggested upper range of 16,222 before reversing and subsequently dropping 182 points.  In the process confirming a bearish short-term trend on the hourly chart. 

Should we celebrate this precise hit as per our earlier forecast? 

Not quite yet. I tend to be a little bit more on the safe side and would like to wait for a follow through to the XXXX tomorrow or over the next few days before confirming an exact price/time hit. I did reverse my QQQ position today at $89.71, going XXXX at the same price, with a stop loss @ XXXX. Please check our updated portfolio section within member section. 

Other than that, we are right where we need to be in both price/time and in terms of portfolio allocation. Portfolio allocation suggested to all parties on 2/18/2014 is still in effect.

END OF UPDATE: —-Please Note: XXXX is available to our premium subscribers in our + Subscriber Section. It’s FREE to start. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Is Obama Causing Ukraine’s Meltdown? Plus, Market Update Google

Posted on

The Bear Market Of 2014-2017 Is Starting. Why, How & When (Revisited)

As markets opened up on January 2nd, 2014, everyone was excited. After all, what was not to like. In 2013 alone, the Dow Jones was in the “new” bull market and according to most people, the rally would continue for the foreseeable future. And why not. After all, the economy was doing better, the unemployment rate was going down to 6.6%, corporate earnings were growing at a good clip. The stage was set for the bull market to continue or so everyone thought.

How little did they know.  What they didn’t (and still don’t) know is that the bull market topped out just two days earlier, on December 31st, 2013 at 16,588 on the DOW (Mathematical top, the actual top will come later in the year).  Ushering in the final stage of the Cyclical Bear Market that will take us into the final 2017 bottom.

How do I know?  I specialize in highly advanced mathematical timing work that can identify turning points in both price and time.  It is rarely wrong, particularly over the long-term time frames. Please get the first two chapters of my book CLICK HERE to learn more about the timing work that I do.

This report is to explore  the Why, How & When of the subject matter at hand. Particularly, why we are about to go thought a bear market leg, where we are in the long-term cyclical structure of the bear market, how long the final bear market will last, where will the market be at the end of the cycle, when it will end and what to expect thereafter. We will look at the matter from the fundamental, technical and timed value approach to investing.

The WHY?

This is probably the easiest question to answer. However, before I can do so, we must go back a few years to understand what got us into this predicament in the first place.

The tech bubble really took off in November of 1994, culminating with a spectacular blow off and a subsequent collapse in January of 2000. With the Nasdaq collapsing close to 80% and the DOW declining to the tune of 40%, the FED’s were concerned.  The country was already in the recession, facing much worse, a deflationary depression.

The FED’s opened up the flood gates by cutting interest rates into the negative category and flooding the market with cheap money.  The money flowed into two primary areas of the economy. The stock market and the housing market. Driving up the values of both in a spectacular fashion.

By 2007 we were  in a massive speculative bubble.  In the stock market, the credit markets and in the real estate market.  Not only were we in a bubble of historic proportions, but it was not fundamentally sound. Meaning, it was brought on by massive fraud happening in the real estate sector.  Here is a good chart showing overvaluation.

market to gdp

Actually, what surprised a lot of people, including myself, is how long that bubble went on. Even though traditional media would like you to believe that no one saw the bubble or the subsequent collapse coming, that is nonsense. At least a dozen people I know, saw it coming. Some did so as early as 2004-05. Maybe I am hanging out with too many bears.

The 2007-2009 collapse was unavoidable. There was too much fraud, juiced up earnings and bad credit in the system. Just like there is today. When it happened, instead of fearing a deflationary depression, the FED’s where scared shitless, fearing an outright collapse of our financial system and the subsequent “Greater Depression”. Rightfully so.

They proceeded to open the flood gates one again, drowning the market in free cash/credit, providing trillions in bailout money and backstopping the collapse. A little bit later, the FED’s introduced QE to push interest rates into the negative territory while providing “growth credit” to our nearly dead economy. The money flowed mostly to….yep, you have guessed it…….financial institutions (who initiated the collapse), hedge funds and high net worth individuals. Giving them a risk free way to speculate, well, in pretty much everything.

However, such actions do come at a cost and that is where we find ourselves today. That is what you have to understand.  The environment we find ourselves in today is not a “unique economic environment” but a continuation of the disastrous policies initiated by the FED against the US Economy since the 1990s. Well, the 1987 crash and Greenspan to be exact.

Today, the US Economy is nothing more than a  giant Ponzi scheme, shuffling money around, borrowing from Peter to pay Paul. It is identical to maxing out your credit cards, then getting more cards and maxing them out again just to pay the interest on the first batch. With one primary difference.  Thus far, the US has been saved through having a reserve currency, ability to print unlimited amounts of money and most importantly, through having the confidence of foreign investors/creditors.  When the trust goes away, and it will, there will be hell to pay.

As 2014 starts we find ourselves in the biggest credit bubble in the history of mankind. It was this credit that drove the stock market recovery from the March of 2009 bottom. It was this credit that drove the housing market recovery and the recovery in corporate earnings.  It was this credit that created an illusion of economic growth and recovery.  How much credit?  Over $3 Trillion in FED printing alone over the last few years.

Yet, if you take the credit away, the underlying economy is nothing more than a giant house of cards on a very shaky foundation.  When you take the unlimited credit away or the velocity of such credit slows down, both happening now, the whole house of cards will come down. And that is precisely where we find ourselves today.

What I want you to understand without a shadow of a doubt is  this. Today’s economic environment has very little to do with reality. Everything you see, everything that you see doing well, has been driven up by credit and speculation.  Eventually, the house of credit collapses and we find ourselves in a midst of an economic disaster. Once again. Unfortunately, just like every Ponzi scheme eventually collapses, so will this  one. There is no way to avoid this now.

The HOW?

It depends who you listen to when it comes to apocalyptic views on our Economy and our financial markets.  On one extreme, we have hyperinflationist. They believe that actions by the FED will cause a hyperinflationary environment to the likes of Zimbabwe. In their view, the dollar will collapse, the gold will surge and Americans will use barrels full of $100 bills just to buy a loafs of bread in the neighborhood supermarket.

On the other side, you have deflationists. They believe the stock market, the credit market, the real estate market, …..everything will collapse, ushering in the next “Great Depression”.  According to them it would be best to accumulate cash, canned food, guns and ammo.

Who is right? No one and everyone. Let me explain. 

The massive printing and credit we have experienced over the last couple of years has, indeed, caused massive inflation. But not where you would expect. Yes, there are certain items throughout the economy like food and basic utilities that have appreciated substantially. However, their rise is not nearly enough to account for massive credit infusion and negative interest rates. So, where did all the money go?

The inflation everyone seeks and talks about went straight into various asset classes. Yes, you have guessed it right. Stocks, real estate, junk bonds, etc… Driving most to extreme overvaluation levels. Not only in the US, but worldwide.

Some analyst would argue that today’s stock market is not overpriced based on simplistic analysis such as P/E Ratios. However, such analysis misses the elephant in the room. A large portion of today’s corporate earnings have been driven by the same credit infusion. Without said credit, the real P/E ratio would be astronomical. How high?  Based on my conservative calculations, at least 2X and as high as 5X from today’s levels. Meaning the real S&P P/E ratio is somewhere between 36 and 100. Making current stock market not only expensive, but “are you fucking kidding me” expensive.

This is precisely what happened during the 2007-09 meltdown. While the pre bust P/E stood around 20 at the 2007 top, it quickly zoomed up close to 125 as soon as corporate earnings built on credit vanished into thin air. An identical situation to today’s markets.

s&p ratio

So, how will this house of cards collapse? Will we have inflation or deflation moving forward?

I think everyone, including bulls, bears, inflationist’s and deflationists will be disappointed at the end of the day. At least based on my mathematical work.  Yes, my work shows a bear market between 2014-17, but not as extreme and not as violent as most people would anticipate. It shows a bear market most closely resembling the bear market between January 2000 and March of 2003 on the Dow Jones (not Nasdaq).

Meaning, a volatile non directional move with a general downtrend.  An extremely difficult environment for both bulls and bears to make money in. Those wishing to make money in such an environment really only have two option. Go short at the inception of the bear market move and stay short for the duration of the move. Surely, to be a unnerving experience. The other option would be to try and time the turning points while trading in and out of bull/bear legs. A skill requiring a lot of experience and know how.

Of course, there is another option that might be more suitable for those wanting to avoid the entire mess. That option is to get out now, stay in cash and pick up substantially undervalued assets at the bottom of the bear market in 2017.

The When?

NOW. Based on my mathematical timing work the bull market from March of 2009 bottom has topped out on December 31st, 2013 (Mathematical top, the actual top will come later in the year). Ushering in the last leg of the cyclical bear market leg that started in January of 2000 and taking us into the final bottom of 2017.

What kind of timing work do I use? The chart below is just one data point.

Long Term Dow Structure35

To fully understand the chart above please get and read my book Timed Value. To quickly summarize, I use 3-dimensional analysis that unifies price and time into one value in order to analyze and time the market with incredible accuracy.  For instance, the chart above show that between 1994 and 2009, a 16 year period of time, the  market exhibited only 22 points of variance. Giving us precise timing and amazing accuracy.

An analyst familiar with this type of an analysis would be able to pick out every single major turning point over the last 20 years. To the day. For example, when 2007 top was reached and confirmed an analyst working with this type of an analysis would know that the upcoming bear move would be exactly 8,137 (3-dimensional units), the angle of the move and it’s exact termination point. So, while everyone was freaking out during the collapse of 2008-09, an analyst performing this work would either be positioned to profit from the collapse or waiting on the sideline for the bottom in March of 2009.

Then, we have cycle work that I talk about in my book as well. While there are a number of important cycles operating in the stock market at any given time, the one we have to take into consideration today is the 5-year cycle. While the 5-year cycle works for both bull and bear markets, it is most easily noticed during the bull moves. For example,  1924-1929, 1932-1937, 1982-1987, 1994-2000, 2002-2007 and now 2009-2014. While these 5-year cycles are the easiest to identify, there are many more. In both bull and bear moves. Plus, such cycles are not arbitrary, meaning they do not terminate at 5 years +/- 6 months. In most cases they terminate at exactly 5 years, with very little, if any, variance.

Taking both, my mathematical and my cycle work into consideration, we can safely assume that December 31st, 2013 was indeed the top of the bull market run (Mathematical top, the actual top will come later in the year). Well, when I take a number of other things into consideration. Things that I do not discuss in this short report.

How Low Will We Go & Exactly When Will This Bear Market Start?

If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

CONCLUSION:

In this report we have looked at fundamental, mathematical and cycle data points.  With the fundamental case being clear cut and to the point, only a few questions remained.

When will the stock market top out and begin its bear market leg?  How violent will the decline be and how long it will take?  What will the impact on the overall economy be and how low will the market go?

It is my hope that the report above helped to answer all of the questions. The bear market of 2014-2017 will not be the one for the “record books”, but it will server its purpose. Completing the cyclical bear market that started in January of 2000 while ushering in the next bull run. Unfortunately, the next bull run is likely to be based on inflationary pressure as opposed to any sort of true fundamental recovery. More on that in one of my future reports.

If you would like to get more information and more exact forecasts (to the day), please visit us at www.investwithalex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

The Bear Market Of 2014-2017 Is Starting. Why, How & When Google

Posted on

CNBC To American People. STFU Already. The US Economy Is On Fire. Plus, Market Update.

 

Apparently the perpetually bullish machine….aka…CNBC is tired of people doubting this “Amazing American Economic Recovery” over the last few years (please see the article above).  That’s right. How dare are those unemployed, underemployed and out of labor pool fools (about 15% of workforce) doubt the American machine of prosperity. How dare are those drunk college kids with $1.08 Trillion debt burden question the validity of their education. How dare does anyone question this real estate recovery.  After all, there is a billion of Chinese millionaires out there buying every house that they can in the deserts of Nevada and California.

Of course, we know better than that. This so called “American Economic Recovery” is an illusion at best. An illusion driven by debt, credit and speculation.   An illusion were only a select few with direct access to free credit were able to benefit from the economic recovery over the last couple of years.  You know, the exact same folks who are trying to tell us that the economy is doing great. Unfortunately, the rest of us were not so lucky.  

Now, a lot of people are starting to concentrate on class warfare.  Yet, we must understand that it is not the class issue, but rather, an economic issue that will impact us all.  No economy can function, grow and excel to the best of its ability if 90-95% of the population is left behind. I am not sure why it is so hard for CNBC, our administration and the FED to understand that.  Now, with my bitching done….

MARKET UPDATE:

2/18/2014 – An interesting day with the Dow Jones remaining relatively flat by losing only -23 points (-0.14%) while the Nasdaq surged higher with a sizable gain of +29 points (0.68%).

One thing we have to keep in mind is that our timing work is based on the Dow. As of right today, our forecast/trading plan presented on Saturday remains in force and in play. I continue to believe that our forecasted turning point will appear as expected. As such, our previously discussed positioning, outlined on Saturday, should remain in place. 

Further, at least structurally the Dow is confirming our turning point. What I am seeing on Nasdaq somewhat confirms the thesis. I am seeing the most speculative issues appreciate in a vertical fashion, including large gaps and everything else. If this doesn’t feel like a blow off top, at least on the Nasdaq, I don’t know what does.  

In summary, my work continues to show that we are close to a short-term turning point scheduled on XXXX. With that in mind, we just have to wait for the market to do its work over the next few XXXX. 

CONCLUSION & POSITIONING:

 (*** Please Note: About 75% of the information contained within this section has been deliberately removed. Particularly, exact dates and prices of the upcoming turning points. As well as trading forecasts associated with them. I deem such information to be too valuable to be released onto the general public.  As such, this information is only available to my premium subscribers. If you are a premium subscriber please Click Here to log in. If  you would be interested in becoming a subscriber and gaining access to the most accurate forecasting service available anywhere, a forecasting service that gives you exact turning points in both price and time, please Click Here to learn more. Don’t forget, we have a risk free 14-day trial).

As mentioned in my earlier forecasts, we are looking at February XXXX as a major turning point.To be exact, this particular turning point is located at…

Date: XXXX
Price: XXXX

Hence, I suggest the following positioning over the next few days/weeks to minimize the risk while positioning yourself for a forecasted market action.

If You Are A Trader: On February XXXX, we will be looking for a confirmation that the market has hit its turning point (as per above) and has reversed itself……on an hourly chart. Once such confirmation occurs, I would liquidate our……….

If No Position: XXXX

If Long: XXXX

If Short:  XXXX

END OF UPDATE: —-Please Note: XXXX is available to our premium subscribers in our + Subscriber Section. It’s FREE to start. 

—————————————————————————————————————–

CNBC Idiots

CNBC Writes: Stop whining! The US economy is in good shape

Based on current growth dynamics, this year promises an even better outlook for employment creation and America’s contribution to the world economy.

The most recent evidence from survey data indicates that the U.S. service sector (approximately 90 percent of the economy) continues to expand in a steady and sustained fashion. Despite recent distortions caused by bad weather, the same is true of the manufacturing industries, where the capacity utilization rate is approaching its long-term average of 80 percent.

The U.S. economy is underpinned by growing real incomes, increasing employment, record-low borrowing costs and an easing access to credit facilities as banks continue to open up their channels of consumer financing.

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

CNBC To American People. STFU Already. The US Economy Is On Fire. Plus, Market Update. Google

Posted on

Warning: George Soros Is Shorting The Market. Should You?

No matter what you think of him, when George Soros does something in the financial markets, it typically pays to pay attention.

So, what is he up to? 

As ZeroHedge reports below he is increasing his PUT option position against the stock market and increasing his CALL options position for gold mining ETFs. Let’s explore both positions a little bit further. 

While his bearish position against the market represents a small portion of his overall portfolio, about 11%, it is up significantly since Q3…… establishing a clear upward moving trend. Certainly, a large chunk of it was put in as a hedge against his overwhelmingly bullish allocation. However, I think there is something bigger brewing under the surface. 

George Soros is not stupid. I hope we can all agree on that. He is not about to go and put up a massive short position when the market is in a clear technical uptrend. Yes, he is hedging, but he is also getting ready to go short when the time is right.  I would do exactly the same thing. Test the water at a potential point of inflection (today’s market), feel it out with a small position, go big once the market confirms the downtrend. That’s just proper money management. 

I am certain Mr. Soros understands today’s macro economic environment better than anyone else out there. What he sees troubles him. Massive global credit bubble throughout western economies, emerging markets and China. Substantial asset overvaluation and a general “psychological” setup that shorts can only dream of. In other words, the market is perfectly setup for a bear leg. The bear leg that the market will exhibit between 2014-2017, as per our forecast. 

On the gold side, I am starting to like both Gold and Gold Miners here. From both the technical as well as the fundamental point of view. From the technical side, both are exhibiting signs of stabilization and a reversal. This bodes well with my fundamental analysis of the overall market. As the bear market decimates the US Economy (once again) over the next 3 years (2014-17), the FED’s are bound to keep the stimulus coming. At any cost. Trying to get inflation and dollar devaluation going. Under such circumstances Gold typically does very well. Not only as a monetary instrument of “stability”, but also as hedge against economic trouble.

So, should you short the market and buy gold?  Yes and Yes. The question is…..when? Please log in into your Premium Account to find out the WHEN.  

george-soros-investwithalex

A curious finding emerged in the latest 13F by Soros Fund Management, the family office investment vehicle managing the personal wealth of George Soros.

Actually, two curious findings: the first was that the disclosed Assets Under Management as of December 31, 2013 rose to a record $11.8 billion (this excludes netting and margin, and whatever one-time positions Soros may have gotten an SEC exemption to not disclose: for a recent instance of this, see Greenlight Capital’s Micron fiasco, and the subsequent lawsuit of Seeking Alpha which led to the breach of David Einhorn’s holdings confidentiality).

The second one is that the “Soros put”, a legacy hedge position that the 83-year old has been rolling over every quarter since 2010, just rose to a record $1.3 billion or the notional equivalent of some 7.09 million SPY-equivalent shares. Since this was an increase of 154% Q/Q this has some people concerned that the author of ‘reflexivity’ and the founder of “open societies” may be anticipating some major market downside.

Then again, as the chart below shows, as a percentage of total AUM, the put position rose to 11.1% of his notional holdings. By way of reference, as of June 30 2013, his SPY put may have had a smaller notional value, but it represented both more shares (7.8 million), and was far greater as a % of AUM, at 13.5%.

Finally, remember that what was disclosed on Friday is a snapshot of Soros’ holdings as of 45 days ago. What he may or may not have done with his hedge since then is largely unknown, and since there are no investor letters, there is no way of knowing even on a leaked basis how the billionaire has since positioned for the market.

That said, while the SPY puts are most likely simply a hedge to his overall bullish exposure, perhaps more notable was the $25 million call position that Soros put on the gold miners ETF which has been beaten into oblivion over the past year, in the fourth quarter. Does Soros think that it is finally the miners’ turn to shine?

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Warning: George Soros Is Shorting The Market. Should You?  Google

Posted on

Weekly Update & Market Forecast. Very Important Update

daily chart Feb 14, 2014

Weekly Update &Summary: February 15th, 2014

Markets continued to rally throughout the week with the Dow Jones appreciating 360 points (+2.28%) and the Nasdaq gaining 118 points (+2.86%). Structurally, the market did very well, closing all the gaps during the span of the week.  There was a gap left around 15,500 on the Dow, but it will be closed during the subsequent bear market leg.   

Most of the bears who were incredibly excited just two weeks ago are now throwing their hands in the air, in complete disbelief, proclaiming something to the tune of “f$&# this s*&#”. Blaming the FED, market manipulation and everything else under the sun for this unprecedented and powerful two week market rally.  Of course, exactly at the wrong time.

Listen, even though the Nasdaq has set a new all time high, the Dow remains over 400 points below its December 31st, 2013 top.  Plus, we have to take into the consideration the fact that the technical trend is still incredibly bullish. Showing no sign that the bear market has started……as per our claim.

So, what is going on?

Based on my mathematical work, the market is performing just as it should. As I always say, it’s the markets job to confuse, frustrate and destroy as many investors as possible. And that’s exactly what it is doing.  

In my original forecasts in 2013 I have suggested that March of 2014 will be the top of the bull market. That was until I came across a missing piece of data suggesting that December 31st of 2013 was indeed the top. Meaning, as of right now the market continues to trace out the necessary pattern towards its ultimate price and time targets in March of 2014. Yes, a XXXX. 

There is another important point to consider. While it is fairly easy to predict the market over an extended period of time (Ex: 2017 bottom of the bear market) it becomes increasingly difficult to do as the time frame compresses from annual, to monthly, to daily, to hourly, etc…. That has to do with a number of data points an analyst has to consider while working with smaller time frames. Simply put, the amount of available mathematical and cyclical data multiplies exponentially as one begins to narrow down the time frame.

What does that mean? It means that it becomes increasingly complex to predict the market over the short time frames. Not impossible, just more difficult.

Which brings us today’s market environment. We have a number of very important points of force coming up over the next few weeks (described below). Points of force that, at least based on my analysis, clearly outline the market structure over the next few weeks and months. If we are to execute our trading strategy properly, we should be able to walk away with significant gains. All while most other market participants are left behind to scratch their heads in outer confusion. As always.   

Please find the points of force (turning points) and the trading strategy associated with it in the Mathematical & Timing Analysis Section below.  

Fundamental Analysis: 

There has been no change in the fundamental picture. As you know, my fundamental case remains fairly straight forward and clear cut. All stocks and most other markets (credit and real estate) are substantially overvalued due to a massive infusion of credit by the FED over the last few years and pure speculation. How overvalued are we?  

1929-2014-Scary-Chart-021414

Well, during the week there has been a lot of hoopla made about the chart above. Comparing today’s market pattern to the one right before the 1929 stock market crash. Claiming that today’s market is tracing out the same patter, right before the crash.

Certainly, if we look at the chart from the fundamental point of view we can argue that the market is indeed incredibly overpriced and is set for a huge, maybe a  90% huge drop.

Let me just say that the collapse is not going to happen. At least based on my mathematical work. First, comparing patterns between today’s market and the market in 1929 is like comparing oranges to tractors. It is meaningless. One must understand where we are in cyclical composition of the market. And we are nowhere near 1929. If you have to compare, 1912, 1946 and 1981 would be much better options.

Second, simply because the market is overpriced, it doesn’t mean that it is about to collapse 90%. It doesn’t work that way. Remember the market has an internal structure. It is exact and perfect. It always does what it is supposed to do by tracing out its points of force. Any move outside of such points would be equivalent to Earth suddenly jumping into Saturn’s orbit for no apparent reason at all.

The lesson for this week is as follows…..

Even though the market is incredibly overpriced (as per my discussion last week) and even though some patterns “look” similar to the ones leading into the 1929 crash, it doesn’t mean anything. Particularly when it comes to making money through investing and/or trading.  

Macroeconomic Analysis: 

There is so much to report here that I am beginning to think that the entire world is going to hell in a hand basket. From Nikkei shifting into downtrend again, to Spain and Turkey deciding to jointly build an aircraft carrier. Because you know, having hyperinflation, collapsing currency, economic depression and 25% unemployment between both countries is not enough. I am just curious to find out who will control any such aircraft carrier. Perhaps it will be Turkey from Monday to Thursday and Spain from Thursday to Sunday. God forbid if they decide to go into war against each other. My brain is starting to hurt just thinking about this stupidity.  

Then you have a slow down in Germany and EU bureaucrats discussing numerous scams of how they can raise enough capital to sustain the EU. Including a plan to outright confiscate/control savings of EU citizens. No, I am not kidding you. Of course, most of it (if not all of it) is the direct result of an insane monetary policy our leaders have put into action over the last two decades. The idea that we can somehow print our way to prosperity. It only works, until it doesn’t.

Technical Analysis: 

While the overall technical picture continues to remain murky, the resolution should be just around the corner.

Long-Term: The trend is still up. Market action in January-February could be viewed as a simple correction in an ongoing bull market. 

Short-Term: The short term picture shifted from negative to positive. Giving us a technical indication that both the short term and the long term trends are up. Yet, that in itself can be misleading as per our timing analysis discussion below.

Mathematical & Timing Analysis: 

(*** Please Note: About 75% of the information contained within this section has been deliberately removed. Particularly, exact dates and prices of the upcoming turning points. As well as trading forecasts associated with them. I deem such information to be too valuable to be released onto the general public.  As such, this information is only available to my premium subscribers. If you are a premium subscriber please Click Here to log in. If  you would be interested in becoming a subscriber and gaining access to the most accurate forecasting service available anywhere, a forecasting service that gives you exact turning points in both price and time, please Click Here to learn more. Don’t forget, we have a risk free 14-day trial). 

As mentioned in my earlier forecasts, we are looking at February XXXX as a major turning point.To be exact, this particular turning point is located at…

Date: XXXX
Price: XXXX

Hence, I suggest the following positioning over the next few days/weeks to minimize the risk while positioning yourself for a forecasted market action.

If You Are A Trader: On February XXXX, we will be looking for a confirmation that the market has hit its turning point (as per above) and has reversed itself……on an hourly chart. Once such confirmation occurs, I would liquidate our……….

If No Position: XXXX

If Long: XXXX

If Short:  XXXX

CONCLUSION: 

We have an existing couple of weeks coming up. A few major turning points and a number of significant moves. Those anticipating the moves and those who can time them properly will be rewarded appropriately. Once the moves described above play out in full, the market will be set free to continue its next cyclical bear market leg. 

Please Note: XXXX is available to our premium subscribers in our + Subscriber Section. It’s FREE to start. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Weekly Update & Market Forecast. Very Important Update  Google

Posted on

Why The Market Top Is In and What You Should Do Next – Update

Long Term Dow Structure35

Update: 

The blog post below was published in January, warning readers that the bull market has topped out on December 31st, ushering in the next leg of the bear market. The bear market that will take us into the 2017 cyclical bear market bottom. Thus far, the market has performed just as anticipated. A substantial decline and a bounce.

However, with the Nasdaq hitting an all time high today, the question is…..is my forecast wrong?

No. Here is why. What you have to understand is that every single market and stock will have its own internal mathematical structure and it’s own rate of vibration. My mathematical work follows the Dow Jones in particular. As such, the market structure remains intact and just as we have been forecasting within our member section. In fact, an important turning point is coming up shortly, pushing and pulling the Dow towards the completion of secondary top in March of 2014. Something I have talked about on this blog a number of times.

Exactly when, where and what steps will the Dow take to get there? I highly encourage you to visit this site tomorrow in order to read our weekly update. I will answer most, if not all, of the questions.  

End Of Update…..

In my earlier blog posts I have mentioned that we had a cluster of very important turning points showing up around December 31st, 2013 and January 1st of 2014 (based on my cycle work). Indicating a significant turning point. 

Yet, my mathematical work at the time didn’t confirm. That is until Tuesday of this week. You can blame a simple brain fart or a lack of sleep on my part.  

I have shown the chart above before. To prove to you that the stock market is not random, but quite the opposite, it is exact. Showing you that there was only a 22 point variance over a 16 year period of time. Further, when we take the values on the chart above and do a few simple calculations we get a value of 12,935.

So what? 

Based on my calculations, the move between March 2009 bottom to December 31st, 2013 top on the DOW was exactly 12,836. That is an exact hit with 0.7% variance. With cycle work and mathematical confirmations coming together, I have no choice but to call for a market TOP.  

(***What calculation? You can learn more about it in my book “Timed Value” by getting two free chapters on timing HERE,  purchasing it on Amazon HERE or getting it as a free bonus HERE). 

Now, even though the market top is in, we have to wait for a technical confirmation before taking our short position. Based on my previous experience that is a prudent thing to do. 

What should you do next?

Option #1: If you are in stocks, start getting out and going into cash. Earning 2-5% annually is heck of a lot better than losing 30-40% over the next 3 years (the length of upcoming bear market). Plus, you will have money when the bottom comes to buy some wonderful companies at give away prices. 

Option #2: Profit on the short side. At the same, this will be a very difficult thing to do. The upcoming bear market is unlikely to be directional. My work shows that it will closely resemble the 2000-2003 bear market with a lot of ups and downs. As such, it will be difficult to make money on the short side.

The best advice I can give you is this. Protect and accumulate cash. Once we hit bottom in 2017, the market will start its 18 year bull market.  

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

Why The Market Top Is In and What You Should Do Next – Update  Google

Posted on

Is The Party Back On? The Stock Market Update

daily chart Feb 13, 2014

***The Market Is About To Turn. What Position Should You Take or Maintain To Maximize Your Gains While Minimizing Risk? Please Click Here To Find Out. 

An interesting day with the Dow Jones up +64 points (0.40%) and the Nasdaq up +39 points (0.94%).

The day started with about a 100 point gap down due to bad retail data. The market rallied right away to close the gap and push further to the tune of +60 points. Turning today’s seemingly regular day into a 150 point rally for the Dow.

As of right now, both the short-term and the long-term chart look exceedingly bullish.  Even though we are properly positioned, extreme caution here is a must.

It seems like the scenario discussed in yesterdays update is in play. While the Dow pushed higher it was unable to break above 16,050 for the time being.  Indicating that the highest range of this bounce leg has been reached and that the market rally is likely near exhaustion.  Whether or not we will see follow through tomorrow, is for the most part irrelevant.  Remember, time is the most important element.  

This works well with our February XXXX day provided in yesterday’s forecast. Making our next update incredibly important. Based on the market actions tomorrow I should have both price and time targets for the top on February XXXX. 

Again, February XXXX should prove to be a turning point of this ………(Would you like to see the exact points of force in both price and time? Plus, what you should do. Please Click Here to +Subscribe to our premium service above. It’s FREE). 

CONCLUSION & POSITIONING:

While the scenario above is highly probable, we must implement proper trading positioning, in case it is not.  Positioning below is as per DOW Jones (not to be applied to individual stocks).

If No Position: XXXX

If Long: XXXX

If Short:  XXXX 

Please Note: XXXX is available to our premium subscribers in our + Subscriber Section. It’s FREE to start. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Is The Party Back On? The Stock Market Update  Google

Posted on

Stock Market Update. InvestWithAlex.com February 12th, 2014

daily chart Feb 12, 2014

A fairly uneventful and flat day, with the Dow Jones down -30 points (-0.19%) and the Nasdaq up +10 points  (0.24%).

The talk of the bottom and continuation of the bull market continue to intensify. Technically speaking “they” might be right. After all, the long-term trend for the Dow Jones continues to be overwhelmingly bullish.  The correction we have experienced since the start of the move can (for now)be classified as a typical correction. After all, the move from 16,588 on December 31st, 2013 to 15,370 on February 5th, didn’t really break any important levels. According to the bulls we are in the first few innings of a “multigenerational” bull market.

Yet, the bears are ready and hungry. Of course, the fundamental thesis is right on the money.  The rally we have experienced over the last few years has been fueled by credit and speculation. Driving most asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc..) into an extremely overvalued range.  While most bears point to 2007 top in comparison, anticipating a 50-60% slide over a short period of time, other bears go even further. Predicting a complete 1929-32 depression style type of a collapse where guns, ammo and tuna cans become your best investments.

Who is right?

No one. At least based on my mathematical work. Remember, it is the stock markets job to confuse as many people as humanly possible.  Point being,  my work shows that the stock market will drive both bulls and bears up the wall over the next couple of years. Every time the market dives, vindicating shorts over a certain amount of time and suggesting that the bear market/collapse is now in place, it will then turn around and stage a massive rally. Leading bulls to believe that the bull is back. Rinse and repeat.

The structure of the upcoming bear move 2014-2017 will be very similar to that of January 2000 – March 2003 on the Dow Jones. (not Nasdaq).  That is why proper timing of up and down moves over the next few years will become so incredibly important. Identifying the point of force (turning point) and then riding it up or down in whatever direction it points will yield the best results…..  

(Missing portion. Would you like to see the exact points of force in both price and time? Plus, what you should do. Please Click Here to +Subscribe to our premium service above).

There is a couple of things we have to consider.

1. The Dow Jones left two gaping holes on the way down. All the way up to XXXX. Not always, but typically, the market moves to close such gaps before any directional move (up or down) can take place. Our mathematical work showed that the market topped out on December 31st, 2013 at 16,588. Meaning, the market must close the gaps before rolling over and attempting a sustained bear market move. So, is it going to XXXX over the next few weeks? As of today, it is too early to say due to too many interference patterns, but it is highly probable.   

2. The next important TIME turning point we have is February XXXX. Followed by a number of significant turning points in March. This yields a number of possible scenarios. Most probable of which is as follows…..

(Missing portion. Would you like to see the exact points of force in both price and time? Plus, what you should do. Please Click Here to +Subscribe to our premium service above).

CONCLUSION & POSITIONING:

While the scenario above is highly probable, we must implement proper trading positioning, in case it is not.  Positioning below is as per DOW Jones (not to be applied to individual stocks).   As such….

If No Position: XXXX

If Long:  XXXX

If Short:   XXXX

Please Note: XXXX is available to our premium subscribers in our + Subscriber Section

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Book Formlead Big

Stock Market Update. InvestWithAlex.com February 12th, 2014 Google

Posted on

Stock Market Update. InvestWithAlex.com February 11th, 2014

daily chart Feb 11, 2014

What Position Should You Take or What Position Should You Maintain? Please Click Here

Another  very strong day in the market, with the DOW up 193 points (1.22%) and the Nasdaq up 43 points (+1.03%).

As discussed in our weekly forecast, this stock market rally follow through (over the last two days) makes one of our two scenarios obsolete.  Particularly, our  most likely scenario of the Dow Jones reaching 15,071 by February XXXX, before turning around and bouncing is no longer in play. Which shifts us to the secondary scenario. The bounce that is happening right now.

This bounce is an incredibly important move for the DOW in both price and time. Even though the move started earlier than anticipated, it is incredibly important for the structure of the market and our Bear Market Thesis.  Remember, secondary and lower high in March of 2014 is a must before any structurally sound bear market can resume.

How long will this bounce take and how far will it go?

We have a number of things to consider.  First, the last down leg on the Dow Jones left a bunch large open holes going all the way up to 16,400. It would be ideal for the market to close the gaps before rolling over and starting the next bear leg. Further, a move into the 16,400 by March of 2014 would allow us to liquidate the remainder of our long positions at fairly good prices and get us ready for taking a short position for the remainder of the bear market.  

With that said, February XXXX remains an important turning point in the market. Given today’s market action I believe that this turning point will be a halfway point of the bounce and/or the B leg of the correction (if you are familiar with Elliot Wave). In other words, it is likely to be a turning point for a short correction that will retrace a % of the current rally without compromising the bounce.  Thereafter, the Dow should bounce into the XXXX category by March to structurally complete the up move.

That is why a proper trading strategy we have executed so far is so important. While our work can determine exact turning points over the long term, it get a lot more complicated over the short term.  As such, we must always wait for a technical confirmation before taking or reversing a position.

(***Please note, we have made a number of trades within our sample portfolios today. Please log in to your account to review the trades).

Short-Term Projections & Advice:

The next point of force shifted to February XXXX. A likely intermediary top before a correction of the rally from February 5th takes place. Thereafter, the market should…..  (Would you like to see the exact points of force in both price and time? Plus, what you should do. Please Click Here to +Subscribe to our premium service above). 

Please Note: XXXX is available to our premium subscribers in our + Subscriber Section

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Stock Market Update. InvestWithAlex.com February 11th, 2014 Google

Posted on

Are Stock Valuation Higher Than 2000 and 2007 Tops? You Bet Your Sweet Ass They Are!!!

Well, kind of. The chart below is a very simple, yet a power look at today’s valuation levels. It shows that while we have already surpassed 2007 valuation levels, we are still a few clicks away from the 2000 levels. At the same time this is not the main issue here.

It is important to understand where we came from, what we are comparing and why it is incredibly important for your overall portfolio. The late 90’s and subsequent top in January of 2000 were caused by the tech bubble. We all know that. As a result of its collapse, the FED’s had opened the flood gates of credit to stabilize the economy and to avert a deep recession. That money flowed directly to real estate, mortgage finance and the stock market….creating a powder keg that exploded in 2007-09. 

The FED’s, once again, raced to the rescue, scared to death, trying to avoid the next “Great Depression”. This time around, not only did they flood the market with cheap credit, but they went as far as creating money out of thin air and monetizing the debt to the tune of $3 Trillion over the last 3 years alone. The money, once again, flowed into the stock market, and to a lesser degree real estate, creating overvaluations and speculation in every sector of the economy. 

So, let me ask you. Is it different this time? Can a collapse/recession be avoided? Are these valuation at an appropriate level or is the stock market incredibly overpriced? 

I think you know what my answer will be. It’s clear (as per chart below) that the market is above 2007 levels. What that chart does not show is that today’s values, as opposed to values in 2000, are driven by credit. Meaning, in real terms, today’s market is likely to be a lot more expensive than it was at  the high of the tech bubble. 

Dr. Marc Faber clearly agrees in the article below. As always, his analysis is right on the money. I highly encourage you to read it. 

Finally, I have clearly stated a number of times on this blog and as per my mathematical/timing work, the bull market from the March of 2009 bottom has topped out on December 31st, 2013. Further, this same mathematical work indicates that the market is set for a bear market leg that will last into 2017. As such, it would be prudent to educate yourself on the matters above while protecting your overall portfolio and wealth. 

I wish you luck. 

Chart Courtesy Of dshort.com

market to gdp

—————————————————————————————————————-
Dr. Doom: Tech stocks even more overvalued now than in 2000

With stocks worldwide off to a bad start in 2014, one man isn’t surprised by any of this.

Dr. Marc Faber, editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report, thinks the drop in the markets, particularly with US stocks, were nothing compared to what they could – or should – have done.

While turmoil in emerging markets is often cited as the culprit for stocks’ decline, others are pointing the finger at the Federal Reserve Bank for tapering its monetary stimulus. Faber believes the fall in equities is the fault of the Fed, but not because of tapering.

“It’s easy to blame someone else for ones problems,” says Faber. “Emerging markets central bankers are blaming now the Fed for the tapering… The Fed has brought about problem in emerging economies. But, it’s not the tapering. It’s the previous bubble they created because investors were chasing yield. They bought emerging market stocks, emerging market currencies, and bonds. They pushed up these asset prices to relatively high levels.”

Though the correction in stocks caught some off guard, Faber says he wasn’t surprised by anything other than people’s reaction.

“The market in the US, the S&P went from 666 in March 2009 – almost five years ago – to 1,850,” says Faber. “Now the market dropped 7% and it seems that it’s the end of the world. This is ridiculous.”

“Compared to the previous increase in prices,” says Faber, “the market retreat of 7% is nothing, nothing at all!

Where Faber sees a bubble is in the tech sector, particularly with social media stocks. He was short Twitter, which until Wednesday was up 45% from its IPO closing price of $44.90. He says he covered his short as shares dropped to $50 per share Thursday. However, he is generally not hopeful for the sector.

“Social media stocks are more overpriced than the internet shares were in year 2000,” says Faber.

Besides Twitter’s staggering 24% drop on Thursday, Pandora was down 10% and LinkedIn took a 7% hit in afterhours trading before Friday morning’s opening bell.

Faber warns investors hoping to make easy money by shorting social media stocks that they may get hurt. Yet he doesn’t buying them to make a quick buck is a good idea, either. In other words, investors should just stay away from social media stocks.

“In year 2000, between January and March, [internet stocks] still went up 30%…. And then, it collapsed,” says Faber. “I’m not saying that individual investors should short these stocks because they may get burned. But, by and large, the fact that they still go up doesn’t make them good value from a long-term perspective.”

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Stock Valuation Higher Than 2000 and 2007 Tops? You Bet Your Ass They Are!!! Google