10/8/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 138 points (+0.82%) and the Nasdaq up 19 points (+0.41%)
Most market participants continue to obsess over what the FED will or will not do. And it should come as no surprise that today’s FOMC minutes failed to provide any sort of clarity. Like I have said, they are stuck and don’t know what to do.
A 25 bps rate hike here would be laughable. Which brings us to my two primary Fed related themes. Something that investors should be paying attention to and not the nonsense everyone is concentrating on.
First, I continue to maintain that the FED has missed the window of opportunity to raise interest rates. It is too late now. Why? They needed to reload their recession fighting tool kit before the next recession or a bear market strikes. The problem is………we are already there as per my mathematical and timing work. That will become evident to everyone else over the next 12 months.
That is to say, the stock market/economy will collapse while interest rates remain at ZERO. What will they do…..another round of QE? Most certainly, but that won’t save the day. The bond market might react to such a development in a negative way this time around, driving yields higher, not lower.
Second, every FED Chairman since Paul Volcker, and to a certain extent before, has been baptized by fire of a large scale market sell-off. Let me give you an example.
- Paul (The Iron Will) Volcker: Took office in August of 1979. Last down leg of a 1966-1982 bear market started in April of 1981. Baptized by fire 1.5 years into his tenure.
- Alan (The Master Printer) Greenspan: Took office in August of 1987. Baptized by fire just two months later, when the crash of 1987 took place.
- Ben (The Savior) Bernanke: Took office in February of 2006. The 2007-2009 bear leg started in October of 2007. Baptized by fire 1.75 years into his tenure.
- Janet (Everything is Peachy) Yellen: Took office in February of 2014. Now 1.75 years into her tenure.
Coincidence? Perhaps. But if the trend above holds true, Ms. Yellen is about to get creamed, along with every other bull out there. Just saying!!!
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. October 8th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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