timing is everything

Today’s job number came in as expected (217K added Vs 215K Expected), pushing the official unemployment rate to 6.3%.

Is this recovery a real deal or a bunch of nonsense?

You be the judge, but if we study the chart above the answer becomes painfully obvious. If we are to add back the unemployed, the underemployed and those who are not looking (gave up) but want a job, the number jumps to 12.5%. Making today’s economic recoveries one of the weakest on record.

So, we are left with two possibilities here. The job growth is simply lagging the stock market and we will soon get a surge in hiring, capex spending, corporate profit growth, etc…. -OR- the stock market is in a massive bubble and this job growth (however weak) has nearly maxed out. Unfortunately, based on my mathematical and timing work, it’s the latter.

What You Ought To Know About The Real Unemployment Rate Google

Hey, don’t hate the messenger. I am just a financial analyst with a knack for accurately predicting financial markets and overall economies. If you really need someone to blame, I have got a few peeps for you. You can start with Bush, Obama, Greenspan, Bernanke and every member of Congress/Senate over the last 15 or so years.

It was their irresponsible fiscal management that has led us all into this predicament. Let’s take a look.

Reason 1: Today’s Unemployment Reading Is Not Very Accurate

As per Chart 1, according to the Bureau of Labor today’s unemployment rate stands at 6.7%. However, this number alone doesn’t show a clear picture. It excludes a number of categories. Primarily, those working part-time, but looking for a full time job and those who have given up looking for any sort of a job, exiting the labor pool completely. Perhaps waiting for a better time.

Now, if you take a look at Chart 2, you will note that the total unemployment rate (including the people above) is at around 12.5%. I believe that is a much better representation of today’s unemployment number. Particularly, when you take distrust in our Government’s statistics into consideration.

In conclusion and according to our Government’s own numbers, the true starting unemployment number should be at 12.5% and not 6.7%. I can argue that the overall number is technically higher, but to be conservative let’s go ahead and stick to 12.5%.

Reason 2: Upcoming Bear Market (2014-17) Will Throw The Economy Into A Severe Recession

This has been my fundamental view for quite a bit of time. Today’s economic “recovery” is nothing more than an illusion driven by massive amounts of credit pumped into our economy by the FED . If you are counting, 3 Trillion over the last 3 years alone while maintaining a negative interest rate environment.

Listen buddy, there is no free lunch. If you think that these actions to save the US Economy from the “Great Recession” of 2007-09 will be without consequences, you are gravely mistaken. A few weeks ago my mathematical timing work has confirmed that December 31st, 2013 was indeed the top of the bull market that started in March of 2009. The bear market will last over the next 3 years and take the Dow Jones into the 9,000-10,000 range. Ushering in a severe US recession.

In such a recessionary environment we should anticipate massive labor force losses as businesses give out pink slips by the millions. Just like they did in 2007-09.

As such, we should anticipate the unemployment rate to go much higher. Let’s be EXTREMELY conservative and assume that the upcoming recession will only retrace 50% of the 2010 unemployment high of 18% as per Chart 2.

This puts our true unemployment projection at 15.25% by 2017 bear market bottom.

Reason 3: ObamaCare

I wrote a detailed analysis about this yesterday. The Congressional Budget Office on Tuesday said that the Affordable Care Act will contribute to the equivalent of 2 million workers out of the labor market by 2017, as employees work fewer hours or decide to drop out of the labor force entirely.

With the US labor force being roughly 155 Million people, a cool 1.3% of people will lose their jobs in one form or another due to ObamaCare alone. Thanks Obama.

However, if you read my analysis on February 4th, you would note that I effectively argued that ObamaCare losses are likely to be close to 4 million jobs and not 2 million. Effectively putting additional job losses at 2.6%.

We are now at 17.85% unemployment by 2017.

Reason 4: Productivity Gains, Technological Improvements, Outsourcing & Robotics

It costs about $2.5/hour to outsource your job to either India or the Philippines. Robotics are pushing the envelope for blue color workers and some products out there can achieve a $2.81 hourly run rate…..today. With constant improvements in this new field, some estimate the hourly cost to be down to about $1.50/hour over the next few years.

How can anyone compete with that? Well, you can’t.

Further, productivity gains and other technological improvements will have a significant impact as well. Again, let’s be on the safe side and assume the 4 points above will cost an additional 3 Million in job losses or 2% of the total labor force by 2017.

Putting us at 19.85% true unemployment by 2017 bear market bottom.

CONCLUSION:

When we get there, the US Government will never admit to this number and will use every accounting trick in the book to hide the reality. Yet, you know better dear reader. Just like today’s unemployment number of 6.7% is not indicative of today’s true unemployment picture, 2017’s true number will be hidden behind the veil of “Economic BS”.

What can you do? Other than ensuring that your job is safe…..absolutely nothing. That is the sad part. As far as I am concerned the scenario above is already baked into the cake and there is nothing anyone can do. Even praying to Jesus Christ won’t help.

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