Tag: US Dollar

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Is The US Dollar About To Crash?

USD Forecast

Many bears believe the future is quite simple. The FED will forgo raising interest rates, the US Dollar will collapse, gold will surge and the stock market will crater. For instance, Peter Schiff: ‘Real Move of Dollar Is Going to Be Crash’

I do not share in such an apocalyptic view. The reality or the financial markets we are dealing with today are a lot more complex. Take a look at the chart above.  It clear shows that the US Dollar broke out of a decade long downtrend late last year. This appears to be a structural move higher, not just a quick speculative blow off top.

In other words, the chances of the USD collapsing here are slim.  Don’t get me wrong. Nothing moves straight up/down and some volatility is to be expected, but I wouldn’t proclaim that the dollar is about to crash. The market doesn’t see it and I tend to agree.

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Is The US Dollar About To Crash?  Google

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Why Dollar Strength Suggests Upcoming Turbulence

dollar surge

A little over 3 years ago, some swanky EU supermodels were refusing payment in the US Dollars. Today, you would be hard pressed to find a single person who is not bullish on the greenback. This worries me and here is why.

We are in an incredibly complex macro economic situation. The debt levels are massive, almost every country is trying to devalue/monetize their currency, there are numerous asset bubbles and the FED is trying to re-load their toolbox before the next recession starts (just around the corner now).

In other words, people are panicking into the dollar at exactly the wrong time. As the chart above illustrates, almost every financial disaster has been preceded by such a run up. Followed by a multi-year decline. Finally, the commercials are heavily shorting the dollar at this stage. We talk about all of that and what to expect next in our latest weekly podcast. Click Here to listen.

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Why Dollar Strength Suggests Upcoming Turbulence   Google

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Is The US Dollar About To Reverse?

Daily Chart January 26thrd

1/26/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 6 points (+0.03%) and the Nasdaq up 14 points (+0.29%). 

The stock market continues to trade within a tight trading range. That might change in a relatively short order. If you would like to find out which way the market will break and when, please Click Here. 

In the meantime, the US Dollar continues to surge higher. Given the chart below, is it prudent to expect this trend to continue for the foreseeable future? Let’s explore.

dollar-chartAs discussed in our weekly podcast (Saturday’s post), it is highly probable that the dollar is approaching a major turning point for the following reasons.

  • The long-term chart above suggests that we are still in a major downtrend and now approaching a major resistance level.
  • Everyone is long the “King Dollar”.
  • For the dollar to truly bottom, a double bottom around 2011 levels is likely.
  • International currency war were everyone is trying to debase their currency has started.
  • The FED might postpone interest rate increases
  • Upcoming recession and another QE is likely.
  • Etc…..

In other words, there are many reasons for the US Dollar to come down now. As a result, it would be wise not to have a large long dollar position going forward. And if you do, it would pay to watch your position like a hawk.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. January 26th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

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Is The US Dollar About To Reverse?  Google

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The Best Investment You Can Make Today. It Will Shock You To Your Core. Guaranteed.

USD Chart Feb 2014That’s right….. the United States Dollar. 

Yeah, yeah, I know what your are thinking. Dollar is a piece of shit and this Alex dude has lost all of his marbles. The FED is printing $65 Billion a month, interest rates are technically negative and hyperinflation is just around the corner.

Americans will soon need to use barrels of cash just to buy anything at the local supermarket. If you are to listen to Gold Bugs or PermaBears you would soon believe that the US will soon turn into Zimbabwe and that only gold and shotguns will save you.

zimbabwe-money

Clearly, there is no love for the dollar, but hear me out. There is a couple of reasons to love the USD. 

Reason #1: Everyone hates it. What do I constantly try to teach you here? To generate huge profits you must buy what other people hate. So, instead of buying Google at over $1,000 you buy Stinky Fertilizer, Inc (STINK). Assuming the company is fairly priced and has good fundamentals.

Reason #2: The USD has nothing to do with all the credit being generated at the present moment. There is a distinction between a balance sheet transaction between the FED/banks and the actual “physical” dollars. There is only a few of the real dollars to go around compared to the credit outstanding. That is why when the credit collapses the USD typically surges higher.

That is exactly what happened during the 2007-2009 credit crisis. The dollar index shot up from 71.30 in 2008 to 89.20 in 2009. When credit collapses, people scramble for dollars as there isn’t enough to go around. Typically, driving the value of the USD higher.

Reason #3: From the long-term technical perspective the USD is setup for a large move here. The long-term chart (from 2005…not provided here) shows that the currency is about to break out. Either up or down. Since everyone hates the currency and since my mathematical work predicts the credit crunch as well as the significant stock market decline, I would anticipate the dollar to break out to the upside.

CONCLUSION:

The best investment you can make right now is to accumulate dollars. Worst case scenario is that the dollar stays around the same levels while the stock market declines. Giving you the ability to buy great companies at significant discount. 

The best case scenario? Dollar zooms up while the market goes down to the tune of 40%. Giving you a higher purchasing power, no risk and massive returns down the road. Of course, this scenario would work wonders for foreign investors in particular.  

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The Best Investment You Can Make Today. It Will Shock You To Your Core. Guaranteed. Google

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Warning: The US Dollar Is About To Surge

Daily Ticker Writes: Why the Dollar Will Always Be the Reserve Currency for the World

USD

On Friday morning the U.S. dollar came close to its lowest point of the year against the euro, according to The Wall Street Journal, on expectations that the Fed will have to continue its easy money policies for longer than first forecast thanks to the government shutdown.

“I’ve never been very worried about this,” he asserts. “The reason for that is there really is no alternative. The Chinese are not going to offer – and they cannot, given where they are in development, I think, for a decade or more – a genuine competitor for the dollar.”

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

I tend to agree with the premise of this article. As of right now there is no clear alternative to the US Dollar. The Chinese Yuan cannot be that alternative as it is technically not even a freely traded currency.  It will be decades before Chinese Yuan approaches the point of even being considered as an alternative to the US Dollar. The Euro? Well, there are too many structural issues in Europe.

There is a real possibility that Euro won’t even survive over the next decade. The majority of European economies (well, almost everyone except Germany) are in a big fiscal mess that is not getting any better. If anything, it is getting a lot worse. With the upcoming worldwide recession over the next few years (I discuss in my previous blogs posts) there is a real possibility that it might force some countries out of the EU and out of the Euro.  

That is one of the reasons of why I am so bullish on the US Dollar for the time being. No doubt that the US has some serious economic and structural problems. Yet, that in itself doesn’t determine the value of its currency.

It is quite possible for the currency to appreciate significantly even under dark economic circumstances and that is what I foresee for the US Dollar. Be aware of that.    

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

Warning: The US Dollar Is About To Surge 

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What Everybody Ought To Know About The US Dollar

Daily Ticker Writes: Why the Dollar Will Always Be the Reserve Currency for the World

USD

On Friday morning the U.S. dollar came close to its lowest point of the year against the euro, according to The Wall Street Journal, on expectations that the Fed will have to continue its easy money policies for longer than first forecast thanks to the government shutdown.

“I’ve never been very worried about this,” he asserts. “The reason for that is there really is no alternative. The Chinese are not going to offer – and they cannot, given where they are in development, I think, for a decade or more – a genuine competitor for the dollar.”

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

I tend to agree with the premise of this article. As of right now there is no clear alternative to the US Dollar. The Chinese Yuan cannot be that alternative as it is technically not even a freely traded currency.  It will be decades before Chinese Yuan approaches the point of even being considered as an alternative to the US Dollar. The Euro? Well, there are too many structural issues in Europe.

There is a real possibility that Euro won’t even survive over the next decade. The majority of European economies (well, almost everyone except Germany) are in a big fiscal mess that is not getting any better. If anything, it is getting a lot worse. With the upcoming worldwide recession over the next few years (I discuss in my previous blogs posts) there is a real possibility that it might force some countries out of the EU and out of the Euro.  

That is one of the reasons of why I am so bullish on the US Dollar for the time being. No doubt that the US has some serious economic and structural problems. Yet, that in itself doesn’t determine the value of its currency.

It is quite possible for the currency to appreciate significantly even under dark economic circumstances and that is what I foresee for the US Dollar. Be aware of that.    

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!