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4 Reasons Why The US Unemployment Rate Will Be At 20% By 2017

Hey, don’t hate the messenger. I am just a financial analyst with a knack for accurately predicting financial markets and overall economies. If you really need someone to blame, I have got a few peeps for you.  You can start with Bush, Obama, Greenspan, Bernanke and every member of Congress/Senate over the last 15 or so years.

It was their irresponsible fiscal management that has led us all into this predicament.  Let’s take a look.

Reason 1:  Today’s Unemployment Reading Is Not Very Accurate

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As per Chart 1, according to the Bureau of Labor today’s unemployment rate stands at 6.7%. However, this number alone doesn’t show a clear picture. It excludes a number of categories. Primarily, those working part-time, but looking for a full time job and those who have given up looking for any sort of a job, exiting the labor pool completely. Perhaps waiting for a better time.   

unemployment rate 2 investwithalex

Now, if you take a look at Chart 2, you will note that the total unemployment rate (including the people above) is at around 12.5%. I believe that is a much better representation of today’s unemployment number. Particularly, when you take distrust in our Government’s statistics into consideration.

In conclusion and according to our Government’s own numbers, the true starting unemployment number  should be at 12.5% and not 6.7%.  I can argue that the overall number is technically higher, but to be conservative let’s go ahead and stick to 12.5%.  

Reason 2: Upcoming Bear Market (2014-17) Will Throw The Economy Into A Severe Recession

This has been my fundamental view for quite a bit of time. Today’s economic “recovery” is nothing more than an illusion driven by massive amounts of credit pumped into our economy by the FED . If you are counting, 3 Trillion over the last 3 years alone while maintaining a negative interest rate environment.

Listen buddy, there is no free lunch.  If you think that these actions to save the US Economy from the “Great Recession” of 2007-09 will be without consequences, you are gravely mistaken.  A few weeks ago my mathematical timing work has confirmed that December 31st, 2013 was indeed the top of the bull market that started in March of 2009. The bear market will last over the next 3 years and take the Dow Jones into the 9,000-10,000 range.  Ushering in a severe US recession.

In such a recessionary environment we should anticipate massive labor force losses as businesses give out pink slips by the millions. Just like they did in 2007-09.

As such, we should anticipate the unemployment rate to go much higher. Let’s be EXTREMELY conservative and assume that the upcoming recession will only retrace 50% of the 2010 unemployment high of 18% as per Chart 2.

This puts our true unemployment projection at 15.25% by 2017 bear market bottom.

Reason 3: ObamaCare

I wrote a detailed analysis about this yesterday. The Congressional Budget Office on Tuesday said that the Affordable Care Act will contribute to the equivalent of 2 million workers out of the labor market by 2017, as employees work fewer hours or decide to drop out of the labor force entirely. 

doctor-obamacare-investwithalex

With the US labor force being roughly 155 Million people, a cool 1.3% of people will lose their jobs in one form or another due to ObamaCare alone. Thanks Obama.  

However, if you read my analysis on February 4th, you would note that I effectively argued that ObamaCare losses are likely to be close to 4 million jobs and not 2 million. Effectively putting additional job losses at 2.6%.

We are now at 17.85% unemployment by 2017.

Reason 4: Productivity Gains, Technological Improvements, Outsourcing & Robotics

It costs about $2.5/hour to outsource your job to either India or the Philippines. Robotics are pushing the envelope for blue color workers and some products out there can achieve a $2.81 hourly run rate…..today. With constant improvements in this new field, some estimate the hourly cost to be down to about $1.50/hour over the next few years.

How can anyone compete with that? Well, you can’t.

Further, productivity gains and other technological improvements will have a significant impact as well. Again, let’s be on the safe side and assume the 4 points above will cost an additional 3 Million in job losses or 2% of the total labor force by 2017.

Putting us at 19.85% true unemployment by 2017 bear market bottom.  

CONCLUSION:

When we get there, the US Government will never admit to this number and will use every accounting trick in the book to hide the reality. Yet, you know better dear reader. Just like today’s unemployment number of 6.7% is not indicative of today’s true unemployment picture, 2017’s true number will be hidden behind the veil of “Economic BS”.  

What can you do? Other than ensuring that your job is safe…..absolutely nothing.  That is the sad part.  As far as I am concerned the scenario above is already baked into the cake and there is nothing anyone can do. Even praying to Jesus Christ won’t help. 

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4 Reasons Why The US Unemployment Rate Will Be At 20% By 2017 Google

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Warning: Why Does CNBC Wants To Destroy Your Wealth

CNBC Idiots

CNBC Writes: Why long-term investors should buy this selloff 

After a year of steady and quite remarkable gains, fear has crept back into the stock market. Concerns about the U.S. economy have joined emerging market weakness and jitters about the Federal Reserve’s stimulus reduction to send the S&P 500down 6 percent from the high reached Jan. 15. But savvy traders are advising long-term investors that this selloff is presenting a terrific opportunity to buy stocks at a discount.

“If you’re a long-term investor, now’s the time to be allocating,” said Rich Ilczysyzn, senior commodities broker at iiTrader. “I know there’s a lot of pension fund capital waiting to be allocated. They may wait for a specific trigger, maybe 5 percent, or maybe 10 percent. But it’s not going to give the retail guy a lot of time to jump on. And what’s going to happen is, people are going to miss the absolute bottom.”

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

Only the pump and dumpers or the idiots in the financial media can say that a mere 6% selloff is a “buying opportunity of a lifetime”.  I think that teach that phrase in the stock broker school to be repeated like a retarded parrot. Well, I guess I shouldn’t expect anything else from CNBC, a perpetual BS machine.

I would admit to one thing. It was quite entertaining to watch CNBC on huge down days in 2008 and 2009. To watch their “deer in the headlights” faces as they whined while trying to figure out why the collapse was happening. According to them, no one saw it coming.

WRONG, dear talking heads. Plenty of people saw it coming, including myself, and have tried to warn others. Yet, no one wanted to listen. We have the exact same situation today. That is fine by me. That is human nature and I have no desire to shove my work or opinion down anyone’s throat.   

At the same time, one reality remains. The stock market is incredibly overpriced.  Particularly, if you take credit and speculation into consideration.  The most important point to understand here is that corporate earnings over the last 5 years have been driven by the same credit infusion (by the FED to the tune of $85 Billion a month + negative interest rates) that spilled into the stock market. When this QE goes away and/or when the velocity of credit slows down, both happening now,  the stock market as well as the earnings will collapse.

Leading to a significant recession and a massive amount of wealth disappearing into thin air. As I have already mentioned on this blog a number of times,  my mathematical work has confirmed that the bull market has already topped out on December 31st, 2013 and the bear will take us into the 2017 bottom. I am not sure if I can be any more clearer than that.

As such, if you want to listen to retards on CNBC (no offence to the genuinely challenged community) telling you that this is a buying opportunity of a life time, go for it.  Just ask yourself, where were they when the real buying opportunity presented itself in the March of 2009. 

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Warning: Why Does CNBC Wants To Destroy Your Wealth Google

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Shocking Truth Finally Comes Out. ObamaCare Will Destroy 4 Million Jobs. The Government Itself Confirms.

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Business Insider Writes: CBO: Obamacare Will Lead To 2 Million Fewer Workers In The Labor Force By 2017

The Congressional Budget Office on Tuesday said that the Affordable Care Act will contribute to the equivalent of 2 million workers out of the labor market by 2017, as employees work fewer hours or decide to drop out of the labor force entirely. 

The reduction in the numbers of hours worked projected by the CBO will lead to the equivalent of 2 million fewer workers in the labor force in 2017. That number will rise to about 2.5 million in 2024. Previously, the CBO had estimated the equivalent of 800,000 fewer workers by 2021.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

What a fucking disaster.

I use the rule of TWO to either multiply or divide the data coming out of the US Government. It give me a much more accurate data. For instance, when the government wants its data to look favorable, multiply it by 2 to get a more accurate read and vice versa.

For example, multiply the current unemployment rate of 6.7% by 2 and you end up with 13.4%. As far as I am concerned, a much more accurate representation of unemployment when you take part timers and those who have given up looking for work into consideration.

The Congressional Budget Office just announced that the Affordable Care Act will contribute to the equivalent of 2 million workers out of the labor market by 2017. Since they want this data to look as favorable as possible, go ahead and multiply it by 2 to get a more accurate indicator. What does that mean?

The Government itself just admitted that ObamaCare will cost 4 Million jobs.
I am speechless.

As far as I am concerned any regulation that destroys jobs, hurts businesses and slows economic growth is an evil law. Period.  I am afraid, due to the upcoming recession (based on my timing work) the net job losses due to ObamaCare will be much more than 4 Million jobs.

What pisses me off more than anything is complete economic incompetence at every level of our government. They have consistently done nothing but exacerbate our economic problems.

Disappearing middle class, massive debt, wars, credit bubbles, real estate bubbles, corporate earnings bubbles, stock market bubbles, upcoming recession and dim economic future is a clear indication of that. Sad. 

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Shocking Truth Comes Out. ObamaCare Will Destroy 4 Million Jobs. The Government Itself Confirms. Google

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Why The US Economy Is Just Like Philip Seymour Hoffman On Heroin

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CNBC Writes: Marc Faber: Market volatility will continue, here’s why

“It would seem to me that it’s not just tapering that is putting pressure on markets,” Faber, the author of the closely watched “Gloom, Boom & Doom Report” told CNBC on Tuesday. “In emerging economies we have practically no growth, we have a slowdown in China that is more meaningful than the strategists seem to think and than the official, Chinese statistics seem to suggest.”

“That then puts pressure on the earnings of the multinationals because most of the growth in the world over the last five years has come from emerging economies,” he told CNBC Europe’s “Squawk Box.” No growth, he said, was causing “a vicious circle on the downside” with slowing emerging economies and inflated asset markets that are now deflating, in turn putting more pressure on asset prices and on the economies.

Faber’s comments come as volatility in equity markets continued this week, prompting concerns among traders and investors that markets were at the start of a sharp correction. The moves lower follow a rally last year on the back of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary stimulus.

“Total credit as a percent of the global economy is now 30 percent higher than it was at the start of the economic crisis in 2007, we have had rapidly escalating household debt especially in emerging economies and resource economies like Canada and Australia and we have come to a point where household debt has become burdensome on the system—that is, where an economic slowdown follows.”

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

Marc Faber needs to stop reading my reports. In all seriousness, it is nice to see someone like Faber confirm your own analysis and investment thesis in its entirety.

He is, of course, right on the money.  When the entire global economy depends on massive amounts of credit and each country is trying to devalue their currency faster than the other, you know you have a big problem.  Here is a good way to look at the issue.

The US Economy and its global counterpart is no different from the Philip Seymour Hoffman. One of my favorites. The guy was on top of his game in one of the most competitive industries in the world, successful, rich and with the ability to land any type of a girl. What else does a guy need in this world?

Well, for him that wasn’t good enough. So he had to find an escape in booze and heroin. The US Economy functions in exactly the same way. Neither Greenspan nor Bernanke has the testicular fortitude to let the economy go through a typical recovery, clear the slate and keep moving on.

Instead, they have infused the economy with massive amount credit (aka heroin) at the first sight of a sneeze. Distorting all financial markets to a massive degree and making the patient addicted in the process.

Now, there is no going back. Just like Philip Seymour Hoffman OD on heroin, the US and Global Economy will OD on cheap credit. Leading to massive financial trouble around the world. There is no way to avoid it now.

While I agree with Faber, I have an extra level of analysis that he does not. Timing.  Again, my timing work is indicating that the bull market topped out on December 31st, 2013 and the market will now roll over to take us into the cyclical 2017 bear market bottom. 

With that said, right now would be a prudent time to protect yourself. 

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Why The US Economy Is Just Like Philip Seymour Hoffman On Heroin Google

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What You Ought To Know About America’s Unemployment Problem

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Reuters Writes: Help wanted: Obama calls on CEOs to help fix jobless problem

WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) – President Barack Obama will meet on Friday with a group of chief executive officers who have agreed to make sure their companies do not rule out hiring people just because their resumes show they have been out of work for a while.

More than 300 companies have agreed to a one-page list of “best practices” for recruiting and hiring people from the ranks of the long-term unemployed – a group that has struggled to find work in spite of an otherwise improved economy. “It’s saying that those who are long-term unemployed should get a fair shot,” said Gene Sperling, Obama’s top economic advisor.

The U.S. jobless rate has remained stubbornly high at 6.7 percent, but Sperling told reporters the rate would be closer to 5 percent were it not for the roadblocks to finding work for those unemployed for six months or more.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

The whole notion of Obama calling on CEO’s to “help fix jobless problem” is an idiotic notion to begin with. A PR stunt. It’s identical to throwing fire crackers at a massive cargo ship and expecting any sort of a result.

The unemployment problem is a function of the overall economy. Business will start hiring when they hit capacity and start growing again. You might scratch your head and ask, well, isn’t our economy is growing fast? At least that’s what the media keeps telling us.  

NO. Again, the recovery you see is artificial. Driven by credit and speculation. Even the primary beneficiaries of this so called recovery (financial institutions able to borrow money for free) are for the most part not hiring. Why? It’s a complex issue. For some it has to do with technological improvements, for others with outsourcing and even robotics.

Yet, the main issue remains. There is no “TRUE” economic growth and too much uncertainty to warrant any kind of a hiring binge. By anyone.

Then there is the big issue of 6.7% unemployment. The number excludes those who have given up looking for work and those who are underemployed (part time, but want full time). If you add both categories into the pool, the true unemployment number is likely to be between 15-20%. That is a massive problem for the economy that is “supposedly” back to its pre 2007 levels.

Is there a solution? I don’t see it. If anything, the situation is about to get a lot worse. As my stock market work clearly indicates we are on verge of a severe bear market and another economic recession.

This will do nothing but make the unemployment problem a lot worse.     

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NASA Announces Plans To Send The US Economy To The Moon

economic_forecasting

Daily Ticker Writes: The economy is only going to get stronger

Zandi has a bullish outlook on the U.S. economy: he’s forecasting 3% GDP growth this year and 4% growth in 2015.

“The U.S. economy is set to experience much stronger growth as the middle of the decade approaches,” he writes in his latest macro outlook. “Businesses are highly profitable and very competitive, households have reduced debt and are saving more, and the banking system is well-capitalized and liquid.”

Zandi says better economic growth will also lead to more jobs. He estimates that 3 million new workers will be hired in 2015, up from 2.25 million in 2013 and 2012. That would mean the economy returns to full employment (a federal jobless rate of 5.5% to 6%) by 2016.

“The job market is headed in right direction,” Zandi says. “Broadly speaking the economy is performing steadily better.”

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

I am not sure who this Zandi, but one thing is for sure. If you are to believe his forecast you will be in for a beating. By the market that is.

The article above is garbage. Again, I am dumb founded that most economist and market practitioners don’t understand our current economic environment. Perhaps I was dropped on my head as a child a few too many times and see things differently. Thanks Mom!!!

Anyhow, the economic growth we see today is not real. It is driven by massive infusion of credit and speculation. That’s it. Further, there is no point to perpetuate any growth or forecast into the future. Since it is all “artificial”, it will vanish into thin air as soon as the speculative bubble driven by credit pops.

People always ask me what the catalyst will be for such an event. They are missing the point.  Typically there is no catalyst. Let me give you an example. Was there a catalyst for 2007-09 decline? NO.  The market simply started to go down in October of 2007, slowly at first, then accelerating later.  It was the stock market that drove the economy into the ground and not the other way around.  

Point being, for the most part there is no external catalyst. The market itself is the catalyst. It is the market that drives the fundamentals. Most people miss this very important point. As such, the market will go down when its ready to go down.

Based on my mathematical work that time is already upon us.   

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More Economic Insanity From The White House

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In his State of the Union address, President Obama announced that he is raising the minimum wage for new federal contract workers to $10.10 an hour. Challenging lawmakers and states to do the same. In essence, hoping that the his action will lead to an eventual rise in nationwide minimum wage.   

Here is the behind the scenes explanation of why he is doing it, why it will not work and why these idiotic economic policies by the FED and by the US Government are killing the US Economy.

Now, prior to understanding what is behind this move, you must be made aware of our overall economic environment. While it seems complex, it is quite easy.

As of right now the US Economy is being pushed and pulled by two opposite forces. Inflation and deflation. How is it possible?

Technically speaking we are in a deflationary environment. It is a naturally occurring cycle where the prices of goods and services go down due to over capacity, credit decline/collapse and stronger currency. If you think about it, deflation is great for both consumers and businesses.

Yet, our Federal Government and the FED’s are terrified of deflation. Why? Because they have a massive pile of debt that they have to pay back. A little over $17 Trillion.

The problem is, there is no way in hell they will be able to pay this debt pack under normal circumstances and no way in hell X 10, in a deflationary environment.

The only way out of this mess is through inflation or war. That is why the FEDs have been working overtime printing money and trying to inflate our debt (and our money) away. With mixed results.

Hence the reason behind our current deflationary and inflationary forces. Forcing some prices (ex: food) to go up while other prices to decline or collapse (ex: asset prices or services).

The bottom line is, the Government needs inflation at any cost. This brings us to President Obama’s pledge or push to increase nationwide minimum wage. Again, it has nothing to do with getting people out of poverty and everything to do with inflating away national debt and destroying the dollar.

Yet, unemployment (or true unemployment) remains high and in such an environment wages will have to stay low. No matter what President Obama does, he has very little pull in free markets and when there is a readily available oversupply of work force, wages will stay where they are.

The bigger issue here is blatant destruction of the US Economy and the US way of life through pure economic stupidity. What you are witnessing now is the end of the road and an eventual collapse of the house of cards that is the US Economy. 

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More Economic Insanity From The White House

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What You Ought To Know About Economic BS

AP Writes: State of the US economy: strongest since recession

BS investwithalex

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy is showing more strength than at any time since the Great Recession began six years ago.

Employers are hiring. Home prices, sales and construction have surged. Corporate profits and stocks have hit records. And consumers have picked up their spending.

The economy has yet to fully recover from the most devastating crisis since the Great Depression. But it’s getting closer — a point President Barack Obama was expected to highlight in his State of the Union address Tuesday night.

The propaganda machine continues to hum along. Let me remind you that the so called “Great Recession” was caused by the insane economic policies of the US Government. Mind you, they continue the same policies today, yet on a much larger scale.

— JOBS

Job growth has been remarkably steady in an uneven recovery. Employers have added at least 2.1 million jobs in each of the past three years, creating momentum that could help the economy gain speed in 2014. Each new job puts more money in the hands of people to spend. That’s why consistent job growth can give more traction to the recovery. The unemployment rate has plunged from 7.9 percent to 6.7 percent over the past year. That’s down from a 10 percent peak in October 2009.

Still, the benefits of more hiring have been muted so far, in part because much of it has been concentrated in the low-wage industries of hotels, restaurants, retailers and temp workers. Also, millions of jobless Americans have stopped looking for work. Once people without jobs stop their searches, they’re no longer counted as unemployed. As a result, the unemployment rate can fall in a way that overstates the health of the economy.

WOW, really. I am not even sure where they are getting their numbers. While the government claims the unemployment is at 6.7%, in reality, that number is much higher. With people giving up on finding work and prolific “underemployment” the real rate is most likely to be around 15%. Hence, no pay growth.  

— HOUSING

Real estate is rebounding. Home prices have climbed 13.7 percent over the past 12 months, according to a Standard & Poor’s index released Tuesday. Sales of existing homes totaled 5.09 million last year, the best such performance since 2006, the National Association of Realtors said last week. Home industry experts say the gains should continue this year, though at a slower pace because higher mortgage rates and home prices will make buying less affordable for some.

Sure, real estate has rebounded, but make no mistake. This has very little to do with an underlying economic health and everything to do with massive credit infusion and to a certain extent speculation in the sector. Once the bubble pops again, and it will, housing will decline below 2010-11 lows.

— CONSUMER SPENDING

The spending of consumers, which fuels about 70 percent of the economy, is starting to return to its pre-recession levels. The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose to 80.7 this month, well above last year’s average of 73.3. Retail sales bumped up 4.2 percent in 2013, the fourth straight annual increase. Roughly 15.6 million autos were bought last year, an 8 percent improvement and the highest total since 2007. Historically low inflation and interest rates have kept food and clothing affordable. And according to the Gallup Organization, average daily consumer spending rose $16 to $88 last year.

Fair enough, but consumer spending is a simple function of the economy. When the economy goes up, so does the consumer spending. Yet, keep the following in mind. Today’s economic recovery is driven primarily by credit infusion and speculation. As the result, consumer spending is being artificially levitated. When easy credit and speculation goes away, consumer spending will not only decline, but collapse.

— STOCKS

The Dow Jones industrial average enjoyed a monster 2013, climbing 28 percent. Corporate profits are at their highest share of the economy in the 66 years of tracking by the government. Shares were bolstered by a Federal Reserve bond-buying program that is now being wound down. The eventual end of the program, paired with weak growth in China and troubles in Argentina and Turkey, help explain the 4.1 percent decline in the stock market since the start of this year.

Again, everything associated with the stock market has been goosed by the FED and their “unlimited” money supply. That includes corporate profits and emerging markets. It is similar to living a high life while maxing out your credit cards. Eventually the bills will come due and the cards will be maxed out. When that happens, there will be hell to pay in all financial markets. As I have stated so many times before, my mathematical work indicates that the bear market has already started and it will take us into the 2017 bottom.

It is prudent that you get yourself ready.

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Criminal Negligence Behind The US Economy

Talking Numbers Writes: Here’s why the Fed is trapped: Ron Paul

PJ-Ron-Paul-1

Ron Paul has a warning for the markets: The Federal Reserve Bank is the source of today’s market instability and it will likely get worse.

As the Fed begins its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, world markets are being rattled by two major issues: credit market instability in China and a further taper of the US monetary stimulus.

Former congressman Ron Paul believes that Ben Bernanke is going to avoid responsibility for additional tapering and foist it on his successor, Janet Yellen. He believes the Fed has its back against the wall – if it tapers any more, emerging markets will spin out of control; if it continues buying bonds at the same monthly pace indefinitely (which is expected to be $75 billion this month), US and world markets could find themselves overvalued and susceptible to a big drop if and when the music stops. The US dollar’s role as a reserve currency is part of the reason this could be a global problem, according to Paul.

“We create money out of thin air to the tune of billions and billions of dollars,” says Paul. “Then we spend it in places like China and they monetize that debt. It’s a worldwide phenomenon. Everybody has mal-investments and overinvestments and all the problems built-in. The weakest economies are going to crack first. But, eventually, I think everybody’s going to suffer from the massive monetary inflation that’s been going on, not only for the last 10 years but probably 30 years.”

I have a lot of respect for Ron Paul for one simple reason. He was the only politician in the US Congress to speak the truth about our economic predicament. Well, either that or all other politicians are idiots without an ounce of economic understanding. Judging by what they are doing to the country I think it’s the latter.   

His assessment of our economic situation is right on the money.  The FED is the problem that has distorted most of our financial markets and most of our pricing mechanisms to an amazing degree. Everywhere you look, you will find discrepancies. From the stock market to the car loan market. Everywhere.

Even though most people view our current economic situation as “typical”, it is anything but that. The FED is, indeed, backed into the corner. That is what happens when you blow financial bubbles on a massive scale. They cannot take the stimulus away. If they do, most financial markets around the world will ferociously collapse. If they don’t, the markets will simply stagnate as the velocity of credit/money slows down. Making the situation worse in the long run.

Of course, most people don’t see that. Even our own president.

President Barack Obama spoke repeatedly last year about the need to avoid what he called “artificial bubbles.” He praised Yellen for “sounding the alarm early about the housing bubble” when he announced her nomination for the job of Fed chairman on Oct. 9. “She doesn’t have a crystal ball, but what she does have is a keen understanding about how markets and the economy work,” he said.

Wrong, Mr. President. We are already in a massive speculative bubble driven by a massive amount of credit and by the FED. Bigger than 1929, 2000 or 2007.  Will the markets collapse as they did back then?  My mathematical and timing work says NO, but the main issue persists. While it might not take the form of a severe market collapse, the economy will have to suffer for decades to come under the weight of today’s economic mismanagement. 

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Cycle Work Predicts A Bear Market. What Should You Do?

USA Today Writes: Aging bull faces fresh survival tests

 bull-vs-bear1

Sadly, no bull market lives forever on Wall Street. And the current bull, which was born on March 9, 2009, and has delivered a fat gain of 172%, is no exception.

The current bull is nearly 5 years old. That’s longer than the average bull, which tends to last closer to four years, according to data going back to 1932 compiled by InvesTech Research newsletter. “Not only is the current bull a full year longer than the norm, it is about to become the fourth-longest since 1932,” says editor James Stack. “If that doesn’t make you nervous, it should.”

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

I oftentimes talk about an important 5 years market cycle on this blog. If you go back and study the market in greater detail, you will see this 5 year cycle appearing constantly. 

For instance,  from 1932 to 37, from 1982 to 1987, from 1994 -2000, from 2002 to 2007. These are just the prominent and known cycles, but there are many others. In both bull and bear market legs.  In addition, we are not talking about 5 years +/- 6 months. In most cases, the cycles were exact as my earlier analysis on this blog showed. Now, we have a very clear 5 year pattern developing  within the existing bull market run. The cycle started with a V shape bottom in March of 2009 and will complete itself in March of 2014.

What does it all mean? The 5 year cycle simply confirms our overall hypothesis that the bear market is about to start. It indicates that the market is finishing up its 5 year growth spiral and should roll over shortly to start its 3 year bear leg. Get yourself ready.

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