I speculate there can’t be a better time to sell than now.

We are linked in our shattered hopes and dreams of wealth creation, the emotional baggage of sequential and frequent black swans.

I further speculate there can’t be a better time to sell than now.

Boehner is not speaking with Obama, who is not speaking to McConnell, who is not speaking to Reid, and around we go. None of them are speaking to Hillary.

I speculate that this moment is surreal and deeply disturbing.

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As the article above shows, people are starting to freak out about the whole Government Default thing. It is clear by now that most of our politicians are somehow retarded (no offense to the mentally challenged community) and we just have to live with it now.

Even the stock market and the bond market are starting to show the signs of worry. Should you worry as well?

As I have mentioned in a few previous posts, I don’t believe so. Even thought our politicians are irresponsible, I don’t think they are irresponsible enough to plunge the country into abyss of economic chaos. I guarantee you there is a lot of movement behind the scenes that I believe will put this issue behind us at any moment now. Further, I believe the existing setup gives speculators a perfect opportunity to profit. Here is how.

As I have mentioned before, the stock market has opened up a lot of gaps on the way down from the previous top. Before any sustained bear market move can take place, the market must go back up in order to close them. That should put us into a mid 15,500 range or about an 800 point move from where we are today.

Further, I believe the resolution of the Debt Crisis would be a clear catalyst for such a move. As such, traders should be setting themselves up for an upswing to benefit from an eventual resolution of an existing crisis. Who said I was always a bear?

*** Don’t Forget To Do Your Own Research Before You Follow This Advice.

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BusinessWeek Writes: A Shrinking U.S. Trade Deficit—Brought to You by Fracking

$fracking invest with alex$

Almost entirely on the back of stronger exports, last week the U.S. Commerce Department revised upward its economic growth estimate for the second quarter, from 1.7 to 2.5 percent. Exports from April to June grew at their fastest pace in two years, pushing down the U.S. trade deficit to 2.7 percent of gross domestic product. That’s less than half what it was at its peak of around 6 percent of GDP in late 2005.

Most of the boost in exports came from tangible stuff sold abroad: goods, rather than services. The biggest among them were petroleum products refined from all the crude oil the U.S. is producing—unlocked by fracking. Through June, the U.S. has exported an average of 99 million barrels of petroleum each month over the past year. That’s roughly quadruple the amount the U.S. was exporting a decade ago.

The story of the shrinking U.S. trade deficit is essentially the story of the U.S. oil boom. The last time the U.S. came close to balancing out the trade deficit, at least in terms of its share of GDP, was just after a recession ended in 1991. To feed the broad expansion that followed, U.S. oil imports grew by more than 130 percent over the next 15 years, from 192 million barrels a month in early 1991 to a peak of about 455 million barrels a month in the summer of 2006.

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Finally, some good news for a change. It would be nice to see America become energy independent over the next few decades. Not only is this great from a financial point of view, but a welcome news from a national security perspective.

I see energy sector as a growth industry over the next few decades. At the same time, investment thesis in this industry is somewhat complicated. My work clearly shows that the global economy is about to fall into another deep recession or worse. As that happens energy consumption should significantly decrease leading to much lower oil prices. While international conflicts in the middle east can play a role in destabilizing the market once again and driving prices higher, I wouldn’t worry about it too much. Anything conflict in this area is likely to be short lived.

As fracking technology improves and production yields increase, expect a lot more oil on the world market. I don’t think I have to tell you what happens when supply increases and demand goes down. A welcome news for the US Economy indeed. Unfortunately, given massive imbalances due to credit finance expansion over the last few decades, it will be of little help to the overall struggling US Economy.

Nevertheless, if you are able to pick winning companies in this sector, they should appreciate significantly.

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