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Bulls Win As Housing Bubble Gets Even Bigger

Daily Chart AAMarch 11 InvestWithAlex

3/11/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 217 points (+1.28%) and the Nasdaq up 86 points (+1.85%)

Before we take a look at the state of today’s housing market, let’s take a quick look at what was surely an unusual trading week. Mostly due to the ECB/Draghi decision to go all in, subsequent market sell-off and a powerful bounce.

What does all of that mean?

Well, it depends on your overall outlook. If you are bull, you are likely confident that Mr. Draghi will continue to juice worldwide markets ever higher. If you are bear, you are confident that this is a desperate move by a powerful central bank. A bank that is basically out of options. The truth, as always, is somewhere in between.

In reality, none of the above really matters. As always, the stock market follows its exact trajectory. Hitting both price and time points of force. And when that TIME/PRICE top arrives, the market will turn around and head lower. ECB/Draghi or not. If you would like to find out when that is, please Click Here. 

Now, it has been quite a while since we have looked at the state of today’s real estate market. Consider the latest…..

Well, isn’t that wonderful. It appears the real estate market is once again firing on all cylinders. But before you celebrate by refinancing your home and taking equity out, to spend it on useless junk, consider this simple proposition. We might be in a real estate bubble blow off stage. But only in selected markets.

Long story short, I am not changing the opinion expressed here so many times before. Today’s real estate bubble will end up blowing up. Just as it did in 2006. Here is the view expressed on this blog before ….Is Today’s Real Estate Bubble Bigger Than 2006?

And I am not the only one who thinks this way. Carl Icahn also believes that the real estate market is in a massive bubble. A bubble that will collapse. 

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please NoteA bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 11th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

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Secret Timing Work Reveals What The Stock Market Will Do Next

Daily Chart AFebruary 26 InvestWithAlex2/26/2016 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 57 points (-0.34%) and the Nasdaq up 8 points (+0.18%)

While both bulls and bears can claim a victory of sorts for the time being, only one thing is certain. This has been a frustrating market for all involved. Consider the following. The NYSE, largest index by capitalization, hasn’t gone anywhere in exactly three years. So much for that bull market everyone keeps talking about.

To make things more complicated, financial media’s sentiment has turned violently negative over the last few weeks. Something I talked about here Shocking: Here Is Why The Stock Market Is Rallying All of that while numerous short-term technical indicators are flashing a clear “overbought” warning signal.

What to make of it all? 

I hope my long-term analysis below can help clear things up.

Below is a comprehensive longer-term review of the stock market and what the next few years hold. 

In the early January of 2000, the US Economy wa s booming. The Dow was fast approaching 11,800 and the Nasdaq was a stone throws away from its improbable benchmark of 5,000. Everyone was making a ton of money and as far as most people were concerned, the future looked very bright.  So much so, that very few people predicted a bear market of 2000-2002, let alone a secular 2000-2017 bear market that was about to begin.

The only way to do so was to know and to understand the cyclical TIME structure oscillating within the stock market.  For instance, an analyst working with such time cycles would know that the stock market’s 17-18 year cycle was topping out in conjunction with the 5 year cycle that started at 1994 bottom.  The bull market that started at the bottom in August of 1982 was coming to a conclusion. In fact, it would top out exactly 17.5 years after it had started or on January 14th, 2000 at 11,800. The 5 year cycle that started in December of 1994 would top out at exactly the same time; 5 years and 35 trading days after it had started.

What does this have to do with predicting a severe bear market of 2014/15-2017?

Everything.  Based on my work the stock market is a mathematically precise entity. And while there are hundreds of TIME cycles oscillating within the stock market at any one time, I will concentrate on only two to prove my point.  The 17-18 cycle and the 5 year cycles. We will look at these cycles over the last 100+ years and I will prove to you, without a shadow of a doubt, they work.

THE 17-18 YEAR CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET:

Long Term Dow Structure3

Long-term cycles within the stock market tend to oscillate going all the way back to the first day of trading, in May of 1790.  If you would be inclined, I would encourage you to verify that information for yourself. For our purposes we will start our analysis a little bit later or exactly 100 years ago. As the chart above indicates, the stock market tends to oscillate in clearly defined 17-18 year alternating Bull/Bear market cycles.

  • 17.5 Year Bull Market (1914 bottom to 1932 bottom): The previous bear market terminated in July of 1914. At that time the US stock market shut down for World War 1. The stock market remained closed between August of 1914 and December of 1914 (a very rare occurrence). When the market finally reopened in December of 1914 it immediately began a rally that would not terminate until October of 1929. Followed by a now famous 1929 stock market crash and a massive 90% 3 year decline. The cycle terminated at the bottom in 1932, completing the 17.5 year bull market cycle at that time.

*Note: It is important to address the 1929-1932 bear market and its impact on the overall 1914-1932 Bull Market cycle. It is a complex matter to discuss without sufficient background or understanding, but the final (short-term) structural composition of this Bull Cycle inverted over the last 3 years (1929-1932). Mostly due to a massive rally between 1924-1929 and a number of down cycles converging on this time period at the same time.  Regardless, the overall cycle lasted 17.5 years.

  • 17 Year BEAR Market (1932 bottom to 1949 bottom): The cycle originated at the bottom in July of 1932 and lasted until June of 1949. During this period of time we had a post great depression bounce, 1937 crash and World War 2. Yet, despite the overall upward trajectory, this clearly defined 1949 bottom remained 60% below its 1929 top and well below both its 1937 and 1942 tops.
  • 17 Year BULL Market (1949 bottom to 1966 top): The market surged higher between 1949 bottom and 1966 top. This was the so called “Golden Age” of post war reconstruction and the American industrial boom. During this time the Dow appreciated over 500% in a clearly defined bull market cycle.
  • 16.5 Year BEAR Market (1966 top to 1982 bottom): The market stayed relatively flat during this period of time with a few notable declines of 30-50%. With the 1972-1974 mid cycle decline of 54% being the largest one.  This clearly defined bear market completed in August of 1982. Approximately 25% below its 1966 top.
  • 17.5 Year BULL Market (1982 bottom to 2000 top): A very well known period and a clearly defined bull market. The market surged higher from its August of 1982 bottom to reach its historic top in January of 2000. During this time the Dow appreciated over 1,400% in one of the strongest bull markets in history.
  • 17 Year BEAR Market (2000 top to 2017 bottom): Even though the market is sitting near all time highs (as of this writing in January of 2014) and even though most people have assumed that the new bull market has started, in relative terms the market hasn’t appreciated very much since its top in 2000. The Nasdaq is still down. Plus, with the final down leg of this bear market being ahead of us (based on my mathematical and timing work), the BEAR market of 2000-2017 should complete itself in a negative territory or below its 2000 top.

It is important to note that the small variation (of +/- 1 year) in duration of these cycles is caused by smaller or larger cycles arriving at the same time. As such and based on the cycles above, we are no longer working in an arbitrary fashion when it comes to predicting the stock market.  In other words, if the stock market repeats a clearly defined 17-18 year Bull/Bear cycle over a 220 year period of time (since 1790) and does so without interruption,  it is safe to assume that the future is predictable and not random.

THE 5 YEAR CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET

One other easily identifiable cycle within the stock market is the 5 year cycle. These 5 year cycles represent one completed growth pattern or one completed Bull or Bear cycle. Typically, they tend to appear for 5 years, disappear and then reappear at a certain point in the future. While they are not sequential as the 17-18 year cycle above, once their place within the overall stock market is understood, they show up at exactly the right time.  For instance,

  • 1914 -1920: Bull Market
  • 1924-1929: Bull Market (followed by a 1929 crash)
  • 1932-1937: Bull Market (followed by a 1937 crash)
  • 1937-1942: Bear Market
  • 1966-1971: Bear Market
  • 1982-1987: Bull Market (followed by a 1987 crash)
  • 1994-2000: Bull Market (followed by a 2000 crash)
  • 2002-2007: Bull Market (followed by a 2007 crash)
  • 2009- July of 2014: Bull Market

One thing to understand about these 5 Year cycles is that they are exact. They have much lower level variance as compared to their longer counterparts. Essentially, we are NOT talking about 5 years +/- 6 months. We are talking about 5 years +/- a few days. For instance, the 2002-2007cycle started on October 10th, 2002 (at 2002 bottom) and terminated on October 11th, 2007. If you are counting, that is exactly 5 Years and 1 day or scary accurate. I encourage you to study the other cycles outlined above in order to prove to yourself how shockingly accurate they all are.

 CONCLUSION: 

In summary, predicting a bear market of 2015-2017 is rather simple.  All 17-18 year bear cycles end with a 2-3 year bear market. For instance, 1912-1914, 1946-1949 and 1979-1982. And while most believe that the secular bear market ended at 2009 bottom, that is not the case. The secular bear market of 2000-2017 is still in effect and will terminate only when the year 2017 is reached. Although the final price bottom will be higher than the mid-cycle bottom reached in March of 2009.

Further, the 5-Year cycle that started on March 6th, 2009 bottom terminated on July 16th, 2014 (Look at NYSE for confirmation). Suggesting that the stock market is now ready to initiate its bear leg (despite recent higher highs). When I combine this cyclical analysis with the rest of my mathematical and timing work, the outcome is crystal clear. A severe bear market of 2015-2017 is just around the corner.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please NoteA bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 26th  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Shocking: The Real Reason Behind January Sell-Off & What Happens Next  Google

What You Ought To Know About Today’s Stock Market Composition.

Daily Chart AFebruary 19 InvestWithAlex

2/19/2016 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 22 points (-0.13%) and the Nasdaq up 17 points (+0.38%) 

Let’s start with today’s long-term picture.

Quite a few investors today,particularly permabears, make the fatal mistake of assuming that today’s imbalances are so great that they will surely lead to a crash of historic proportions. Think in terms of 1929, 1937, 1972, 1987, 2000, etc…

Case and point……Chilling ways the global economy echoes 1930s Great Depression era

Let me tell you something, they are dead wrong and they will pay dearly for it. That is, when this bear market bottom comes and they are caught with their pants down shorting everything in sight.

Their misunderstanding stems from not fully understanding where we are in the overall cyclical composition of the market.

And where are we?

We are nearing completion of a 2000-2017 secular bear market. An exact analysis was outlined here previously….Year End #1 – Why This Analysis Scares The Bejesus Out Of Bulls

That is to say, we are in a period of time similar to 1912-1914, 1946-1949 and 1980-1982. And NO, we are NOT in danger of a major collapse suffered in 1929 or 1937 or 1972 or 1987, etc… Those tend to appear in early stages of bull/bear cycles. Not at the end.

In other words, those who expect financial Armageddon might have to wait a little bit longer. We won’t get one here. But don’t get me wrong, I am not saying that a substantial decline is not possible here.

Now, let’s take a look at the short-term composition. 

Here is a good look at the subject matter…..Bearish engulfing’ pattern vies for financial-sector sway with bullish ‘abandoned baby’

Not bad, but I am sticking to my own and much more accurate/superior analysis. Here is the analysis presented to you a few weeks ago. Notice, we remain within the confines of my trading range.

We remain in a very complex market environment. Here is the chart I presented to you almost two weeks ago. Suggesting at the time that the market will remain within a certain trading range until the structure below (sphere) completes itself on a certain date and price. When it does, a powerful directional move will start. If you would like to find out when that PRICE/TIME arrives (to the day) and where the market will push next, please Click Here. 

February Chart

Finally, you might want to listen to what David Stockman is saying here. I don’t know what the bulls are smoking:

“I think your traders are smoking something stronger than what I can legally buy here in Colorado. Everywhere trade is drying up, shipping rates are at all-time lows,” he said. “There is a recession that’s going to engulf the entire world economy, including the United States.”

And while I am not sure what the bulls are smoking either, they are surely inhaling a lot of greed while exhaling a lot of BS.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 19th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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What You Ought To Know About Today’s Stock Market Composition. Google

How We Perfectly Timed November 2015 Market Top

Daily Chart AFebruary 5 InvestWithAlex

2/5/2016 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 212 points (-1.29%) and the Nasdaq down 146 points (-3.25%). 

I’ll be very frank and to the point here. This update falls under my “$100,000 Guarantee”

February Chart

I first introduced my TIME turning point of November 27th (+/- 2 trading days) to my subscribers in early September of 2015. At that point I have suggested that this TIME turning point is one of the most powerful TIME turning points of the year. Just as strong as May 19th TIME turning point was.

As the market bottomed (higher low) on September 29th and then surged higher it became evident that Nombember 27th would be a top and not a bottom.  As a result, I then introduced the elliptical structure above. Displaying clear resistance levels.

To summarize, as we pushed into this top we knew two things.

  1. The exact TIMING – Nobember 27th and…
  2. The price level where the market is likely to top out (at resistance).

In fact, this is the chart to my subscribers, first posted in our subscriber section on October 31st, 2015. Before the projected top was put in and subsequent decline.

feb 3 chart

Actually, this top was quite a bit uglier than the work above indicates. The actual PRICE top on the Dow arrived on November 3rd. The top on our TIME turning point of November 27th was slightly lower (secondary top).  Then,  the market proceeded to run into our elliptical resistance at lower levels twice more. Once on December 17th and once on December 29th, before the massive sell-off in early January. I discuss why we had those attempts at resistance in our subscriber section in greater detail.

The chart above also helps explain the market action thus far and most importantly, what happens next.  There are two things to consider at this time……

  1. The market will remain within a tight trading range until the elliptical structure above terminates. My subscribers know the exact date and price of such termination.
  2. Something incredibly important will happen as soon as this structure terminates. Unfortunately, what that is, is only available to my subscriber.

If this type of Price/Time analysis is of interest to you, please Click Here

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please NoteA bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 5th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

How We Perfectly Timed November 2015 Market Top Google

Shocking: The Real Reason Behind January Sell-Off & What Happens Next

Daily Chart AJanuary 29 InvestWithAlex1/29/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 392 points (+2.42%) and the Nasdaq up 107 points (+2.38%) 

After a scary August and September of 2015, bulls have been able to declare a victory of sorts in October/November. Erasing most of the earlier losses and leading the market to one of the best performing months in years (October). So much so that most investors believed, wrongly I might add, that the Dow 20K was once again just around the corner.

Unfortunately, the Dow topped out on November 3rd and then proceeded to oscillate violently for close to two months before initiating a massive sell-off on December 29th. The speed of the subsequent sell-off into January 20th bottom caught many people by surprise. Not us. We were expecting it all along. And if you are wondering why and/or what happens once today’s bounce plays itself out, I encourage you to check our long-term analysis below.

Below is a comprehensive longer-term review of the stock market and what the next few years hold. 

In the early January of 2000, the US Economy wa s booming. The Dow was fast approaching 11,800 and the Nasdaq was a stone throws away from its improbable benchmark of 5,000. Everyone was making a ton of money and as far as most people were concerned, the future looked very bright.  So much so, that very few people predicted a bear market of 2000-2002, let alone a secular 2000-2017 bear market that was about to begin.

The only way to do so was to know and to understand the cyclical TIME structure oscillating within the stock market.  For instance, an analyst working with such time cycles would know that the stock market’s 17-18 year cycle was topping out in conjunction with the 5 year cycle that started at 1994 bottom.  The bull market that started at the bottom in August of 1982 was coming to a conclusion. In fact, it would top out exactly 17.5 years after it had started or on January 14th, 2000 at 11,800. The 5 year cycle that started in December of 1994 would top out at exactly the same time; 5 years and 35 trading days after it had started.

What does this have to do with predicting a severe bear market of 2014/15-2017?

Everything.  Based on my work the stock market is a mathematically precise entity. And while there are hundreds of TIME cycles oscillating within the stock market at any one time, I will concentrate on only two to prove my point.  The 17-18 cycle and the 5 year cycles. We will look at these cycles over the last 100+ years and I will prove to you, without a shadow of a doubt, they work.

THE 17-18 YEAR CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET:

Long Term Dow Structure3

Long-term cycles within the stock market tend to oscillate going all the way back to the first day of trading, in May of 1790.  If you would be inclined, I would encourage you to verify that information for yourself. For our purposes we will start our analysis a little bit later or exactly 100 years ago. As the chart above indicates, the stock market tends to oscillate in clearly defined 17-18 year alternating Bull/Bear market cycles.

  • 17.5 Year Bull Market (1914 bottom to 1932 bottom): The previous bear market terminated in July of 1914. At that time the US stock market shut down for World War 1. The stock market remained closed between August of 1914 and December of 1914 (a very rare occurrence). When the market finally reopened in December of 1914 it immediately began a rally that would not terminate until October of 1929. Followed by a now famous 1929 stock market crash and a massive 90% 3 year decline. The cycle terminated at the bottom in 1932, completing the 17.5 year bull market cycle at that time.

*Note: It is important to address the 1929-1932 bear market and its impact on the overall 1914-1932 Bull Market cycle. It is a complex matter to discuss without sufficient background or understanding, but the final (short-term) structural composition of this Bull Cycle inverted over the last 3 years (1929-1932). Mostly due to a massive rally between 1924-1929 and a number of down cycles converging on this time period at the same time.  Regardless, the overall cycle lasted 17.5 years.

  • 17 Year BEAR Market (1932 bottom to 1949 bottom): The cycle originated at the bottom in July of 1932 and lasted until June of 1949. During this period of time we had a post great depression bounce, 1937 crash and World War 2. Yet, despite the overall upward trajectory, this clearly defined 1949 bottom remained 60% below its 1929 top and well below both its 1937 and 1942 tops.
  • 17 Year BULL Market (1949 bottom to 1966 top): The market surged higher between 1949 bottom and 1966 top. This was the so called “Golden Age” of post war reconstruction and the American industrial boom. During this time the Dow appreciated over 500% in a clearly defined bull market cycle.
  • 16.5 Year BEAR Market (1966 top to 1982 bottom): The market stayed relatively flat during this period of time with a few notable declines of 30-50%. With the 1972-1974 mid cycle decline of 54% being the largest one.  This clearly defined bear market completed in August of 1982. Approximately 25% below its 1966 top.
  • 17.5 Year BULL Market (1982 bottom to 2000 top): A very well known period and a clearly defined bull market. The market surged higher from its August of 1982 bottom to reach its historic top in January of 2000. During this time the Dow appreciated over 1,400% in one of the strongest bull markets in history.
  • 17 Year BEAR Market (2000 top to 2017 bottom): Even though the market is sitting near all time highs (as of this writing in January of 2014) and even though most people have assumed that the new bull market has started, in relative terms the market hasn’t appreciated very much since its top in 2000. The Nasdaq is still down. Plus, with the final down leg of this bear market being ahead of us (based on my mathematical and timing work), the BEAR market of 2000-2017 should complete itself in a negative territory or below its 2000 top.

It is important to note that the small variation (of +/- 1 year) in duration of these cycles is caused by smaller or larger cycles arriving at the same time. As such and based on the cycles above, we are no longer working in an arbitrary fashion when it comes to predicting the stock market.  In other words, if the stock market repeats a clearly defined 17-18 year Bull/Bear cycle over a 220 year period of time (since 1790) and does so without interruption,  it is safe to assume that the future is predictable and not random.

THE 5 YEAR CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET

One other easily identifiable cycle within the stock market is the 5 year cycle. These 5 year cycles represent one completed growth pattern or one completed Bull or Bear cycle. Typically, they tend to appear for 5 years, disappear and then reappear at a certain point in the future. While they are not sequential as the 17-18 year cycle above, once their place within the overall stock market is understood, they show up at exactly the right time.  For instance,

  • 1914 -1920: Bull Market
  • 1924-1929: Bull Market (followed by a 1929 crash)
  • 1932-1937: Bull Market (followed by a 1937 crash)
  • 1937-1942: Bear Market
  • 1966-1971: Bear Market
  • 1982-1987: Bull Market (followed by a 1987 crash)
  • 1994-2000: Bull Market (followed by a 2000 crash)
  • 2002-2007: Bull Market (followed by a 2007 crash)
  • 2009- July of 2014: Bull Market

One thing to understand about these 5 Year cycles is that they are exact. They have much lower level variance as compared to their longer counterparts. Essentially, we are NOT talking about 5 years +/- 6 months. We are talking about 5 years +/- a few days. For instance, the 2002-2007cycle started on October 10th, 2002 (at 2002 bottom) and terminated on October 11th, 2007. If you are counting, that is exactly 5 Years and 1 day or scary accurate. I encourage you to study the other cycles outlined above in order to prove to yourself how shockingly accurate they all are.

 CONCLUSION: 

In summary, predicting a bear market of 2015-2017 is rather simple.  All 17-18 year bear cycles end with a 2-3 year bear market. For instance, 1912-1914, 1946-1949 and 1979-1982. And while most believe that the secular bear market ended at 2009 bottom, that is not the case. The secular bear market of 2000-2017 is still in effect and will terminate only when the year 2017 is reached. Although the final price bottom will be higher than the mid-cycle bottom reached in March of 2009.

Further, the 5-Year cycle that started on March 6th, 2009 bottom terminated on July 16th, 2014 (Look at NYSE for confirmation). Suggesting that the stock market is now ready to initiate its bear leg (despite recent higher highs). When I combine this cyclical analysis with the rest of my mathematical and timing work, the outcome is crystal clear. A severe bear market of 2015-2017 is just around the corner.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please NoteA bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. January 29th  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Shocking: The Real Reason Behind January Sell-Off & What Happens Next  Google

Hey Buddy…..Want To Bet Against George Soros?

Daily Chart AJanuary 22 InvestWithAlex

1/22/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 210 points (+1.32%) and the Nadaq up 119 points (+2.66%).

If you have been wondering just how much imaginary wealth the stock market has erased over the last few weeks, wonder no more…..

But most investors are not at all concerned. Since the bottom on Wednesday the market has recovered quite a bit and “Buy the Dip” mentality is gaining traction faster than the overall market. At least Mr. Cramer is no longer freaking out and calling for an all out market crash.

But the worst might still lie ahead. At least according to George Soros…

But it is not only Soros. Last week I wrote about Soros’s ex partner, Jim Rogers shorting the US Indices as well.

Jim Rogers: I Am Shorting US Markets & Junk

Plus, a few others….

Icahn, Soros, Rogers, Faber, Druckenmiller All Warned…..No One Paid Attention

Point being, investors might want to thing twice about betting against industry titans such as Soros, Rogers, Icahn, etc…… Chances are, their track record is better than yours. I am just glad that my analytical framework matches theirs.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please NoteA bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update.January 22nd, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Google

What You Ought To Know About Shorting Facebook & Getting Rich

Daily Chart AJanuary 8 InvestWithAlex1/8/2016 – Another down day with the Dow Jones down 168 points (-1.02%) and the Nasdaq down 46 points (-0.98%)

I have to admit something. I hate Facebook with passion. First, it is a cesspool of pointless narcissistic activity. Not for everyone, but the % is high enough. Now, I have learned a long time ago not to make “emotional” investment decision. That is why it warms my heart to see Facebook (FB) at such dizzying valuation levels.

Here is why I believe short sellers  should drool all over Facebook (FB)

Facebook FB - InvestWithAlex

When Twitter (TWTR) was selling at $48, I wrote this….Why Twitter (TWTR) Should Go On Your “Stocks To Short” List  Less than a year later it is trading 60% lower. With that in mind, I continue to maintain that the worst is yet to come for the company. By the time upcoming bear market ends, Twitter should be below $10.

With that in mind, I believe Facebook (FB) presents us with even a better shorting opportunity. In fact, I continue to believe that Facebook is one of the best shorts out there.

And while most investors today will laugh at me when I suggest that Facebook (FB) will see $20 a share over the next 3 years, I will laugh back when it does. I promise. Here is why……

  • As discussed over the last few days, Facebook is massively overpriced. At its $275 Billion market cap, the company is now worth more than GE. At 10th the revenue base and a P/E of 95. I guarantee you, investors in Facebook today will look back in 2-3 years and wonder “What the hell were we thinking?”.
  • I am beginning to notice quite a bit of fraudulent activity on Facebook when it comes to likes, promotions, paid advertising, etc… That is firsthand knowledge, but you can Google the same and do your own research. That suggests the Facebook is running out of growth and its multiple is not justified. By a long shot. I wrote about it here Why Facebook Remains An Amazing Short Opportunity
  • See those massive gaps all the way down to $20 a share? Yep, they will have to be closed at some point.
  • We are on a verge of a multi-year substantial bear market. Click Here. When such bear markets develop, if past is any history, such overvalued and over hyped stocks tend to lose 80-90% of their value. Just as the gaps above suggest. I don’t know why this time would be any different.
  • Short interest is low.

Finally, even at $20 a share, Facebook will be extremely overpriced. In other words, I just gave you a 80% gainer, but its up to you what you do with it. As always, TIMING is the key here.

Have a great weekend everyone.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update.January 8th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

What You Ought To Know About Shorting Facebook & Getting Rich Google

Global Indices, Futures, Bonds, Stocks, Commodities & Currencies. Plus, 300 Days Of NO Gains.

Daily Chart ANovember 6 InvestWithAlex

11/6/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 47 points (+0.26%) and the Nasdaq up 19 points (+0.38%). 

Despite the recent monster rally in stocks, most indices are sitting near their annual break even points. For instance, the Dow is just 80 points higher from where it opened on January 2nd. The S&P is slightly higher while the NYSE/Russell are sitting below their respective opening numbers. Only the Nasdaq is up for the year. That begs the question…. is that indicative of a speculative bubble or will other indices have to catch up? We will discuss that next week.

In the meantime, I am incredibly excited to announce our partnership with Demeter Research and Demeter Capital.  To increase our product offering and to offer you access to some of the most popular markets out there.  Plus, an active trading environment.

Matt’s work is some of the most accurate I have ever seen and it shows.  I will let our sales letter below explain everything in greater detail.  Should you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

Global Stock Indices, Futures, Bonds and Stocks
Commodities & Currencies

Active Short-Term & Long-Term Trading Environment


Just How Much Money Would You Be Able To Make While Minimizing Risk
-OR-
Just How Much Would Your Investment Returns Improve
If You Knew….With a High Degree of Certainty
Where The Next Turning Point Is
Short-Term & Long-Term

Sometimes To The Penny and In All Of Your Favorite Markets.


WELL, NOW YOU CAN HAVE THIS INFORMATION AT YOUR FINGERTIPS
(***First, take a look at the video below)And that is exactly what happened.

Who is Matt Demeter?

mattMatt Demeter is a hedge fund manager at Demeter Capital and the person behind Demeter Research. Matt graduated from Duke University with a Bachelor’s degree in Biology and Genetics.  And after seven years as a laboratory scientist, Matt entered the money management business in 2004 by starting his own hedge fund and developing a unique technical analysis system. The system you see here.  Click Here To Learn More.

One thing is guaranteed;  you will not find this work and analysis anywhere else.

Here is just a brief summary of Matt Demeter’s approach…..

  • Matt’s work is based on calculating moving averages, trend lines and support/resistance lines in 3-Dimensional Space. As Alex Dvorkin has shown and proven in his book “Timed Value”, the stock market is a multidimensional entity that moves in at least 3-Dimensional Space. Matt’s work approaches the market in a similar fashion, leading to astonishing accuracy in selected markets. Learn More
  • Fast deployment in multiple markets and most popular financial instruments.
  • Incredible accuracy. Matt’s support and resistance calculations allow him to pin point minor and major reversal points within the 0.5% margin of error 50% of the time. The other 40% fluctuate within the 0.5-1% variance band.
  • Highly active long-term and/or short-term trading environment.
  • Minimization of risk. Matt’s system often yields the margin of error of just a few ticks or pennies. Allowing him to set stop loss or reversal points shockingly close to the original entry points.
  • Matt’s approach concentrates only on high probability trades in multiple markets. This allows for further risk minimization while positioning the overall portfolio for large gains.
  • Ability to know exactly where and when major tops and/or bottoms are put in place.
  • And much more……Lean More

In other words, Demeter Research system above allows investors to….

  1. Know exactly when most popular financial instruments are at their respective short-term or long-term turning points. Sometimes to the penny.
  2. Take position at the above mentioned turning points. At times with the tightest stop loss or reversal points in the industry.
  3. And as you can very well understand, all of the above leads to market beating gains, often by a considerable margin, and in a low risk environment.

click here to learn more

P.S. And don’t forget, you can start using Matt’s approach today to achieve market beating performance. What are you waiting for? Just Click Here.

MARKETS COVERED 

stockSTOCK INDICES bondsBONDS commoditiesCOMMODITIES  EUROCURRENCIES
Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq
DAX and Euro Stoxx
Nikkei, Shanghai Composite
Brazilian Bovespa, Emerging Markets
US 10 Year Treasury Rate
Long-Term Treasuries ETF
Junk Bond ETFs
Municipal Bond ETF
Gold, Silver, Copper and Mining ETFs
Crude Oil and Energy ETFs
Wheat, Corn, Soybeans
Agricultural ETFs
Australian Dollar British Pound
Canadian Dollar Euro
US Dollar Index Japanese Yen

Global Indices, Futures, Bonds, Stocks, Commodities & Currencies. Plus, 300 Days Of NO Gains.  Google

Why This Analysis Scares The Bejesus Out Of Bulls

Daily Chart October 30 InvestWithAlex10/30/2015- A negative day with the Dow Jones down 93 points (-0.52%) and the Nasdaq down 20 points (-0.40%)

After a scary August and September, bulls have been able to declare victory in October. Erasing most of the earlier losses while leading the market to one of the best performing months in years. So much so that most investors now believe the correction is over and that the Dow 20K is just around the corner.

I would hate to rain on everyone’s parade……BUT…..parabolic moves like this, off of September 29th lows, are typically corrective. Not directional. In other words, the market is correcting its down cycle before turning lower again.  That SHOULD cause some concern. Then, there is this analysis……

Below is a comprehensive longer-term review of the stock market and what the next few years hold. 

In the early January of 2000, the US Economy wa s booming. The Dow was fast approaching 11,800 and the Nasdaq was a stone throws away from its improbable benchmark of 5,000. Everyone was making a ton of money and as far as most people were concerned, the future looked very bright.  So much so, that very few people predicted a bear market of 2000-2002, let alone a secular 2000-2017 bear market that was about to begin.

The only way to do so was to know and to understand the cyclical TIME structure oscillating within the stock market.  For instance, an analyst working with such time cycles would know that the stock market’s 17-18 year cycle was topping out in conjunction with the 5 year cycle that started at 1994 bottom.  The bull market that started at the bottom in August of 1982 was coming to a conclusion. In fact, it would top out exactly 17.5 years after it had started or on January 14th, 2000 at 11,800. The 5 year cycle that started in December of 1994 would top out at exactly the same time; 5 years and 35 trading days after it had started.

What does this have to do with predicting a severe bear market of 2014/15-2017?

Everything.  Based on my work the stock market is a mathematically precise entity. And while there are hundreds of TIME cycles oscillating within the stock market at any one time, I will concentrate on only two to prove my point.  The 17-18 cycle and the 5 year cycles. We will look at these cycles over the last 100+ years and I will prove to you, without a shadow of a doubt, they work.

THE 17-18 YEAR CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET:

Long Term Dow Structure3

Long-term cycles within the stock market tend to oscillate going all the way back to the first day of trading, in May of 1790.  If you would be inclined, I would encourage you to verify that information for yourself. For our purposes we will start our analysis a little bit later or exactly 100 years ago. As the chart above indicates, the stock market tends to oscillate in clearly defined 17-18 year alternating Bull/Bear market cycles.

  • 17.5 Year Bull Market (1914 bottom to 1932 bottom): The previous bear market terminated in July of 1914. At that time the US stock market shut down for World War 1. The stock market remained closed between August of 1914 and December of 1914 (a very rare occurrence). When the market finally reopened in December of 1914 it immediately began a rally that would not terminate until October of 1929. Followed by a now famous 1929 stock market crash and a massive 90% 3 year decline. The cycle terminated at the bottom in 1932, completing the 17.5 year bull market cycle at that time.

*Note: It is important to address the 1929-1932 bear market and its impact on the overall 1914-1932 Bull Market cycle. It is a complex matter to discuss without sufficient background or understanding, but the final (short-term) structural composition of this Bull Cycle inverted over the last 3 years (1929-1932). Mostly due to a massive rally between 1924-1929 and a number of down cycles converging on this time period at the same time.  Regardless, the overall cycle lasted 17.5 years.

  • 17 Year BEAR Market (1932 bottom to 1949 bottom): The cycle originated at the bottom in July of 1932 and lasted until June of 1949. During this period of time we had a post great depression bounce, 1937 crash and World War 2. Yet, despite the overall upward trajectory, this clearly defined 1949 bottom remained 60% below its 1929 top and well below both its 1937 and 1942 tops.
  • 17 Year BULL Market (1949 bottom to 1966 top): The market surged higher between 1949 bottom and 1966 top. This was the so called “Golden Age” of post war reconstruction and the American industrial boom. During this time the Dow appreciated over 500% in a clearly defined bull market cycle.
  • 16.5 Year BEAR Market (1966 top to 1982 bottom): The market stayed relatively flat during this period of time with a few notable declines of 30-50%. With the 1972-1974 mid cycle decline of 54% being the largest one.  This clearly defined bear market completed in August of 1982. Approximately 25% below its 1966 top.
  • 17.5 Year BULL Market (1982 bottom to 2000 top): A very well known period and a clearly defined bull market. The market surged higher from its August of 1982 bottom to reach its historic top in January of 2000. During this time the Dow appreciated over 1,400% in one of the strongest bull markets in history.
  • 17 Year BEAR Market (2000 top to 2017 bottom): Even though the market is sitting near all time highs (as of this writing in January of 2014) and even though most people have assumed that the new bull market has started, in relative terms the market hasn’t appreciated very much since its top in 2000. The Nasdaq is still down. Plus, with the final down leg of this bear market being ahead of us (based on my mathematical and timing work), the BEAR market of 2000-2017 should complete itself in a negative territory or below its 2000 top.

It is important to note that the small variation (of +/- 1 year) in duration of these cycles is caused by smaller or larger cycles arriving at the same time. As such and based on the cycles above, we are no longer working in an arbitrary fashion when it comes to predicting the stock market.  In other words, if the stock market repeats a clearly defined 17-18 year Bull/Bear cycle over a 220 year period of time (since 1790) and does so without interruption,  it is safe to assume that the future is predictable and not random.

THE 5 YEAR CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET

One other easily identifiable cycle within the stock market is the 5 year cycle. These 5 year cycles represent one completed growth pattern or one completed Bull or Bear cycle. Typically, they tend to appear for 5 years, disappear and then reappear at a certain point in the future. While they are not sequential as the 17-18 year cycle above, once their place within the overall stock market is understood, they show up at exactly the right time.  For instance,

  • 1914 -1920: Bull Market
  • 1924-1929: Bull Market (followed by a 1929 crash)
  • 1932-1937: Bull Market (followed by a 1937 crash)
  • 1937-1942: Bear Market
  • 1966-1971: Bear Market
  • 1982-1987: Bull Market (followed by a 1987 crash)
  • 1994-2000: Bull Market (followed by a 2000 crash)
  • 2002-2007: Bull Market (followed by a 2007 crash)
  • 2009- July of 2014: Bull Market

One thing to understand about these 5 Year cycles is that they are exact. They have much lower level variance as compared to their longer counterparts. Essentially, we are NOT talking about 5 years +/- 6 months. We are talking about 5 years +/- a few days. For instance, the 2002-2007cycle started on October 10th, 2002 (at 2002 bottom) and terminated on October 11th, 2007. If you are counting, that is exactly 5 Years and 1 day or scary accurate. I encourage you to study the other cycles outlined above in order to prove to yourself how shockingly accurate they all are.

 CONCLUSION: 

In summary, predicting a bear market of 2015-2017 is rather simple.  All 17-18 year bear cycles end with a 2-3 year bear market. For instance, 1912-1914, 1946-1949 and 1979-1982. And while most believe that the secular bear market ended at 2009 bottom, that is not the case. The secular bear market of 2000-2017 is still in effect and will terminate only when the year 2017 is reached. Although the final price bottom will be higher than the mid-cycle bottom reached in March of 2009.

Further, the 5-Year cycle that started on March 6th, 2009 bottom terminated on July 16th, 2014 (Look at NYSE for confirmation). Suggesting that the stock market is now ready to initiate its bear leg (despite recent higher highs). When I combine this cyclical analysis with the rest of my mathematical and timing work, the outcome is crystal clear. A severe bear market of 2015-2017 is just around the corner.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please NoteA bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. August 7th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

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Why This Analysis Scares The Bejesus Out Of Bulls  Google

Why I Am More Bearish Today Than Ever

Daily Chart October 23 InvestWithAlex

10/23/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 158 points (+0.91%) and the Nasdaq up 112 points (+2.27%). 

I am going to go out on a limb here, at the risk of looking like a complete fool a couple of months down the road, and suggest that bears should be thanking their lucky starts. That is, for an opportunity to go short as these levels.

Before we get there, let me ask you something. What has changed between September 29th bottom and today? NOTHING FUNDAMENTAL, only investor sentiment. Where on September 29th investors were freaking out and numerous commentators were calling for an all out market crash, today it’s the opposite. Apparently, the bear market is over and we are getting ready to surge higher. Consider the following.

Yet, fundamentally speaking, we are still in the same conundrum. I continue to maintain that we are witnessing a major slow down in earnings and the US Economy. Most corporates missing and guiding lower is a clear evidence of that. Sure, some companies like Google, Amazon, etc…. are outperforming, but they are an exception, not the rule. The FED remains between the rock and a hard place. Unable to raise interest rates or stimulate the economy further.

If anything, we are getting numerous confirmations that earnings and the US Economy are falling apart.

As they say, a picture is worth a thousand words. Trust me, the bulls do not want to see these charts.

Chart #1: Hey everyone, look at all of those gaps. If you think the market won’t come back to close them, sooner or later, you are living in a fantasy land. But listen, we are all adults here. Who am I to tell you NOT to buy Amazon, Facebook, Google, etc….at today’s ridiculous valuation levels. As Citigroup suggests, “Be brave and go long”.
Untitled

Chart #2: Oldie but goodie. Again, overall earnings/economy are slowing down while Shiller’s adjusted S&P ratio is at its 3rd highest level in history. Investors have paid more for stocks on two other occasions. In 1929 and 2000. But, unlike yours truly, most bulls don’t mind paying the same premium today.shillers PEChart #3: Look at all of these non-confirmations from Russell 2000, Dow Transports and Biotech (IBB). These are just a few. There are many other.  New Bull market??? Yeah, sure…..to infinity and beyond.

rut

transports

ibb

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please NoteA bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. October 23rd, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Why I Am More Bearish Today Than Ever  Google