7/10/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 211 points (+1.20%) and the Nasdaq up 75 points (+1.53%). 

Most market participants, bulls and bears, will walk away from this week’s market action confused. Not my subscribers. The stock market continues to perform within the confines of our exact forecast. If you would like to find out what happens next,  please Click Here. 

So, what is the biggest fallacy in today’s stock market?

Illusion of stability and/or trust in all things “Government” (FED/ECB/IMF/EU,China, etc..). Consider the following.

Maintaining The Illusion Of Stability Now Requires Ever-Greater Extremes

Right on the mark. It appears we live in an environment where the people in power are attempting to create a one way street to prosperity. Through zero interest rates, QE, stimulus, stock market intervention, etc… What the idiots don’t understand is that they end up creating bubbles of immense proportions. Bubbles that just 10-15 years ago would have been unfathomable.

The downside is, the bigger they are the louder they pop. Make no mistake, we are getting there…… and soon.

Mohamed A. El-Erian: Don’t think China is investable

I couldn’t agree more. At least for now, China is bouncing. Just as was suggested here earlier in the week. Yet, desperate the measures taken by the Chinese Government, it is a clear sign not to touch China with a 10 foot pole. When authorities prevent people from selling while jailing short-sellers, you know it is a dire situation.

Don’t get me wrong.  As I indicated earlier in the week, China might go though a massive bounce here. Maybe even a higher high. That is speculation, not investing. When government steps in like this, the end is near and you don’t want to be there. Plus, if you can’t get out when you need to, there is no point in getting in.

Russia poses ‘greatest threat’ to US national security: Dunford

Excuse my language, but I am getting really sick and tired of this Industrial Military Complex propaganda BS. What threat? How can Russia pose a threat if it is the US who is building a massive NATO presence on the Russian border. Not the other way around. If we don’t count Alaska, I think the closest Russian military outpost is 4000 miles away from the mainland. How many more f$*#ing wars will the idiots in Washington get us into before ICBMs start criss crossing the oceans?

Short Sales Are at Their Highest Level Since the Financial Crisis

I don’t think this has anything to do with short-term moves. I think this is a more structural or longer-term position. Typically, short sellers are on the “smart side” of the money. Here is what they are seeing…..

• Artificially propped up markets.
• Government interventions (they never last).
• Massive bubbles in all asset classes.
• The stock market at the third highest valuation ever. Right behind 1929 and 2000.
•  Overwhelming bullish sentiment…
• Etc….

This is exactly what I am talking about in terms of “fallacy”. What you are witnessing right now is the calm before the storm. Once investors realize that the FED is not in control, you will see a rather rapid correction of 25-40%. Understandably, by the time most people realize this, it will be too late.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 10th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

The Biggest Fallacy In Today’s Stock Market  Google

7/2/2015 –  A slight down day with the Dow Jones down 28 points (-0.16%) and the Nasdaq down 4 points (-0.08%). 

Considering today’s overwhelming bullish sentiment, the chart above tells a different story. A much simpler story. The NYSE Index (largest stock composite by capitalization) hasn’t gone anywhere in exactly 1 year. In fact, the index is down 2% since July of 2014. So, are we in a period of distribution and this is your last chance to sell -OR- is the stock market getting ready for a massive leg up. To answer that question, consider the analysis below.

Below is a comprehensive longer-term review of the stock market and what the next few years hold. 

In the early January of 2000, the US Economy wa s booming. The Dow was fast approaching 11,800 and the Nasdaq was a stone throws away from its improbable benchmark of 5,000. Everyone was making a ton of money and as far as most people were concerned, the future looked very bright.  So much so, that very few people predicted a bear market of 2000-2002, let alone a secular 2000-2017 bear market that was about to begin.

The only way to do so was to know and to understand the cyclical TIME structure oscillating within the stock market.  For instance, an analyst working with such time cycles would know that the stock market’s 17-18 year cycle was topping out in conjunction with the 5 year cycle that started at 1994 bottom.  The bull market that started at the bottom in August of 1982 was coming to a conclusion. In fact, it would top out exactly 17.5 years after it had started or on January 14th, 2000 at 11,800. The 5 year cycle that started in December of 1994 would top out at exactly the same time; 5 years and 35 trading days after it had started.

What does this have to do with predicting a severe bear market of 2014/15-2017?

Everything.  Based on my work the stock market is a mathematically precise entity. And while there are hundreds of TIME cycles oscillating within the stock market at any one time, I will concentrate on only two to prove my point.  The 17-18 cycle and the 5 year cycles. We will look at these cycles over the last 100+ years and I will prove to you, without a shadow of a doubt, they work.

THE 17-18 YEAR CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET:

Long-term cycles within the stock market tend to oscillate going all the way back to the first day of trading, in May of 1790.  If you would be inclined, I would encourage you to verify that information for yourself. For our purposes we will start our analysis a little bit later or exactly 100 years ago. As the chart above indicates, the stock market tends to oscillate in clearly defined 17-18 year alternating Bull/Bear market cycles.

• 17.5 Year Bull Market (1914 bottom to 1932 bottom): The previous bear market terminated in July of 1914. At that time the US stock market shut down for World War 1. The stock market remained closed between August of 1914 and December of 1914 (a very rare occurrence). When the market finally reopened in December of 1914 it immediately began a rally that would not terminate until October of 1929. Followed by a now famous 1929 stock market crash and a massive 90% 3 year decline. The cycle terminated at the bottom in 1932, completing the 17.5 year bull market cycle at that time.

*Note: It is important to address the 1929-1932 bear market and its impact on the overall 1914-1932 Bull Market cycle. It is a complex matter to discuss without sufficient background or understanding, but the final (short-term) structural composition of this Bull Cycle inverted over the last 3 years (1929-1932). Mostly due to a massive rally between 1924-1929 and a number of down cycles converging on this time period at the same time.  Regardless, the overall cycle lasted 17.5 years.

• 17 Year BEAR Market (1932 bottom to 1949 bottom): The cycle originated at the bottom in July of 1932 and lasted until June of 1949. During this period of time we had a post great depression bounce, 1937 crash and World War 2. Yet, despite the overall upward trajectory, this clearly defined 1949 bottom remained 60% below its 1929 top and well below both its 1937 and 1942 tops.

• 17 Year BULL Market (1949 bottom to 1966 top): The market surged higher between 1949 bottom and 1966 top. This was the so called “Golden Age” of post war reconstruction and the American industrial boom. During this time the Dow appreciated over 500% in a clearly defined bull market cycle.

• 16.5 Year BEAR Market (1966 top to 1982 bottom): The market stayed relatively flat during this period of time with a few notable declines of 30-50%. With the 1972-1974 mid cycle decline of 54% being the largest one.  This clearly defined bear market completed in August of 1982. Approximately 25% below its 1966 top.

• 17.5 Year BULL Market (1982 bottom to 2000 top): A very well known period and a clearly defined bull market. The market surged higher from its August of 1982 bottom to reach its historic top in January of 2000. During this time the Dow appreciated over 1,400% in one of the strongest bull markets in history.

• 17 Year BEAR Market (2000 top to 2017 bottom): Even though the market is sitting near all time highs (as of this writing in January of 2014) and even though most people have assumed that the new bull market has started, in relative terms the market hasn’t appreciated very much since its top in 2000. The Nasdaq is still down. Plus, with the final down leg of this bear market being ahead of us (based on my mathematical and timing work), the BEAR market of 2000-2017 should complete itself in a negative territory or below its 2000 top.

It is important to note that the small variation (of +/- 1 year) in duration of these cycles is caused by smaller or larger cycles arriving at the same time. As such and based on the cycles above, we are no longer working in an arbitrary fashion when it comes to predicting the stock market.  In other words, if the stock market repeats a clearly defined 17-18 year Bull/Bear cycle over a 220 year period of time (since 1790) and does so without interruption,  it is safe to assume that the future is predictable and not random.

THE 5 YEAR CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET

One other easily identifiable cycle within the stock market is the 5 year cycle. These 5 year cycles represent one completed growth pattern or one completed Bull or Bear cycle. Typically, they tend to appear for 5 years, disappear and then reappear at a certain point in the future. While they are not sequential as the 17-18 year cycle above, once their place within the overall stock market is understood, they show up at exactly the right time.  For instance,

• 1914 -1920: Bull Market
• 1924-1929: Bull Market (followed by a 1929 crash)
• 1932-1937: Bull Market (followed by a 1937 crash)
• 1937-1942: Bear Market
• 1966-1971: Bear Market
• 1982-1987: Bull Market (followed by a 1987 crash)
• 1994-2000: Bull Market (followed by a 2000 crash)
• 2002-2007: Bull Market (followed by a 2007 crash)
• 2009- July of 2014: Bull Market

One thing to understand about these 5 Year cycles is that they are exact. They have much lower level variance as compared to their longer counterparts. Essentially, we are NOT talking about 5 years +/- 6 months. We are talking about 5 years +/- a few days. For instance, the 2002-2007cycle started on October 10th, 2002 (at 2002 bottom) and terminated on October 11th, 2007. If you are counting, that is exactly 5 Years and 1 day or scary accurate. I encourage you to study the other cycles outlined above in order to prove to yourself how shockingly accurate they all are.

 CONCLUSION: 

In summary, predicting a bear market of 2015-2017 is rather simple.  All 17-18 year bear cycles end with a 2-3 year bear market. For instance, 1912-1914, 1946-1949 and 1979-1982. And while most believe that the secular bear market ended at 2009 bottom, it is not the case. The secular bear market of 2000-2017 is still in effect and will terminate only when the year 2017 is reached. Although the final price bottom will be higher than the mid-cycle bottom reached in March of 2009.

Further, the 5-Year cycle that started on March 6th, 2009 bottom terminated on July 16th, 2014. Suggesting that the stock market is now ready to initiate its bear leg (despite recent higher highs). When I combine this cyclical analysis with the rest of my mathematical and timing work, the outcome is crystal clear. A severe bear market of 2015-2017 is just around the corner.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. June 5th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Advanced Mathematical & Cycle Analysis Points To A Severe Bear Market Ahead  Google

6/5/2015 –  A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 56 points (-0.31%) and the Nasdaq up 9 points (+0.18%). 

Below is a comprehensive longer-term review of the stock market and what the next few years hold. 

In the early January of 2000, the US Economy wa s booming. The Dow was fast approaching 11,800 and the Nasdaq was a stone throws away from its improbable benchmark of 5,000. Everyone was making a ton of money and as far as most people were concerned, the future looked very bright.  So much so, that very few people predicted a bear market of 2000-2002, let alone a secular 2000-2017 bear market that was about to begin.

The only way to do so was to know and to understand the cyclical TIME structure oscillating within the stock market.  For instance, an analyst working with such time cycles would know that the stock market’s 17-18 year cycle was topping out in conjunction with the 5 year cycle that started at 1994 bottom.  The bull market that started at the bottom in August of 1982 was coming to a conclusion. In fact, it would top out exactly 17.5 years after it had started or on January 14th, 2000 at 11,800. The 5 year cycle that started in December of 1994 would top out at exactly the same time; 5 years and 35 trading days after it had started.

What does this have to do with predicting a severe bear market of 2014/15-2017?

Everything.  Based on my work the stock market is a mathematically precise entity. And while there are hundreds of TIME cycles oscillating within the stock market at any one time, I will concentrate on only two to prove my point.  The 17-18 cycle and the 5 year cycles. We will look at these cycles over the last 100+ years and I will prove to you, without a shadow of a doubt, they work.

THE 17-18 YEAR CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET:

Long-term cycles within the stock market tend to oscillate going all the way back to the first day of trading, in May of 1790.  If you would be inclined, I would encourage you to verify that information for yourself. For our purposes we will start our analysis a little bit later or exactly 100 years ago. As the chart above indicates, the stock market tends to oscillate in clearly defined 17-18 year alternating Bull/Bear market cycles.

• 17.5 Year Bull Market (1914 bottom to 1932 bottom): The previous bear market terminated in July of 1914. At that time the US stock market shut down for World War 1. The stock market remained closed between August of 1914 and December of 1914 (a very rare occurrence). When the market finally reopened in December of 1914 it immediately began a rally that would not terminate until October of 1929. Followed by a now famous 1929 stock market crash and a massive 90% 3 year decline. The cycle terminated at the bottom in 1932, completing the 17.5 year bull market cycle at that time.

*Note: It is important to address the 1929-1932 bear market and its impact on the overall 1914-1932 Bull Market cycle. It is a complex matter to discuss without sufficient background or understanding, but the final (short-term) structural composition of this Bull Cycle inverted over the last 3 years (1929-1932). Mostly due to a massive rally between 1924-1929 and a number of down cycles converging on this time period at the same time.  Regardless, the overall cycle lasted 17.5 years.

• 17 Year BEAR Market (1932 bottom to 1949 bottom): The cycle originated at the bottom in July of 1932 and lasted until June of 1949. During this period of time we had a post great depression bounce, 1937 crash and World War 2. Yet, despite the overall upward trajectory, this clearly defined 1949 bottom remained 60% below its 1929 top and well below both its 1937 and 1942 tops.

• 17 Year BULL Market (1949 bottom to 1966 top): The market surged higher between 1949 bottom and 1966 top. This was the so called “Golden Age” of post war reconstruction and the American industrial boom. During this time the Dow appreciated over 500% in a clearly defined bull market cycle.

• 16.5 Year BEAR Market (1966 top to 1982 bottom): The market stayed relatively flat during this period of time with a few notable declines of 30-50%. With the 1972-1974 mid cycle decline of 54% being the largest one.  This clearly defined bear market completed in August of 1982. Approximately 25% below its 1966 top.

• 17.5 Year BULL Market (1982 bottom to 2000 top): A very well known period and a clearly defined bull market. The market surged higher from its August of 1982 bottom to reach its historic top in January of 2000. During this time the Dow appreciated over 1,400% in one of the strongest bull markets in history.

• 17 Year BEAR Market (2000 top to 2017 bottom): Even though the market is sitting near all time highs (as of this writing in January of 2014) and even though most people have assumed that the new bull market has started, in relative terms the market hasn’t appreciated very much since its top in 2000. The Nasdaq is still down. Plus, with the final down leg of this bear market being ahead of us (based on my mathematical and timing work), the BEAR market of 2000-2017 should complete itself in a negative territory or below its 2000 top.

It is important to note that the small variation (of +/- 1 year) in duration of these cycles is caused by smaller or larger cycles arriving at the same time. As such and based on the cycles above, we are no longer working in an arbitrary fashion when it comes to predicting the stock market.  In other words, if the stock market repeats a clearly defined 17-18 year Bull/Bear cycle over a 220 year period of time (since 1790) and does so without interruption,  it is safe to assume that the future is predictable and not random.

THE 5 YEAR CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET

One other easily identifiable cycle within the stock market is the 5 year cycle. These 5 year cycles represent one completed growth pattern or one completed Bull or Bear cycle. Typically, they tend to appear for 5 years, disappear and then reappear at a certain point in the future. While they are not sequential as the 17-18 year cycle above, once their place within the overall stock market is understood, they show up at exactly the right time.  For instance,

• 1914 -1920: Bull Market
• 1924-1929: Bull Market (followed by a 1929 crash)
• 1932-1937: Bull Market (followed by a 1937 crash)
• 1937-1942: Bear Market
• 1966-1971: Bear Market
• 1982-1987: Bull Market (followed by a 1987 crash)
• 1994-2000: Bull Market (followed by a 2000 crash)
• 2002-2007: Bull Market (followed by a 2007 crash)
• 2009-2014: Bull Market

One thing to understand about these 5 Year cycles is that they are exact. They have much lower level variance as compared to their longer counterparts. Essentially, we are NOT talking about 5 years +/- 6 months. We are talking about 5 years +/- a few days. For instance, the 2002-2007cycle started on October 10th, 2002 (at 2002 bottom) and terminated on October 11th, 2007. If you are counting, that is exactly 5 Years and 1 day or scary accurate. I encourage you to study the other cycles outlined above in order to prove to yourself how shockingly accurate they all are.

 CONCLUSION: 

In summary, predicting a bear market of 2015-2017 is rather simple.  All 17-18 year bear cycles end with a 2-3 year bear market. For instance, 1912-1914, 1946-1949 and 1979-1982. And while most believe that the secular bear market ended at 2009 bottom, it is not the case. The secular bear market of 2000-2017 is still in effect and will terminate only when the year 2017 is reached. Although the final price bottom will be higher than the mid-cycle bottom reached in March of 2009.

Further, the 5-Year cycle that started on March 6th, 2009 bottom terminated on July 16th, 2014. Suggesting that the stock market is now ready to initiate its bear leg (despite recent higher highs). When I combine this cyclical analysis with the rest of my mathematical and timing work, the outcome is crystal clear. A severe bear market of 2015-2017 is just around the corner.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. June 5th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Why Major Long-Term Cycles Point To A Severe Bear Market Ahead Google

 Weekly Update & Summary: June 28th, 2014

A mixed week with the Dow Jones down 95 points (-0.56%) and the Nasdaq up 29 points (+0.68%). The Dow left behind a small up gap on Thursday, June 26th at 16,867. It is likely to be closed over the next few trading days.

However, we continue to have a number of large down gaps, the one on May 27th, two large gaps on May 21st/23rd and two large gaps on April 14th/16th. Indicating an eventual correction. Further, there are a number of smaller gaps left behind, leading all the way down to February 5th low.  We continue to believe that the Dow will close such gaps when the next bear leg develops at below mentioned time frames (please see mathematical analysis & timing section below).

WEEKLY REVIEW:

The Dow Is Going To 44,000. Minus 34,000.

I was waiting for this. Nothing screams out “Market Top” more than some perma bull claiming that the market is going to hit 44,000. Bull markets don’t die of old age, why Dow 44,000 is coming

“We’ve been on record since the 4th quarter of 2008 saying that U.S. stocks were entering a 15 to 20 year bull secular bull market. While people have come around to being more bullish I don’t think people believe we have another 10 years left.”

And that’s the biggest problem with these idiotic projections and people claiming that 2009 bottom was the end of the bear market and the beginning of the next secular 20 year bull market.  I guess it’s alright to have a 20 year secular bull market, yet it is impossible to have a 20 year bear market

I have some bad news for them. If you study the market going all the way back to the first day of trading (May 22nd, 1790), you would soon realize that Bull/Bear markets alternate in almost perfect 17/18 year cycles. Meaning, the 2009 bottom was a mid cycle bottom similar to 1974, 1937, 1908, etc….. and not the termination point of the bear market that initiated on January 14th, 2000. The final 2014-2017 stage of this bear market will prove me right without a shadow of the doubt. Get ready. 

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 Shocking: American Household Net Worth Collapses

American middle class continues to vanish at astonishing speed. At least according to the new study published by Russell Sage foundation For most families, wealth has vanishe

The study, which measures the average wealth of U.S. households by income level, reveals a startling decline in wealth nationwide. The median household in 2013 had a net worth of just $56,335 — 43% lower than the median wealth level right before the recession began in 2007, and 36% lower than a decade ago. “There are very few signs of significant recovery from the losses in wealth suffered by American families during the Great Recession,” the study concludes.

I have covered the subject matter in my previous posts titled Guillotine Sales About To Surge. Make no mistake, the American middle class, and not the rich, is the driving force behind America’s success. I continue to believe that by decimating the middle class the US Government has undermined the very foundation of America’s future.

In other words, what the FED did over the last 20 years is nothing short of criminal.By concentrating of bubble blowing, asset appreciation and capital misallocation, the US Government and the FED have, for the most part, benefited only the rich. The problem is, no economy can function like this over an extended period of time. Rich or not, an economy with no middle class eventually collapses and becomes a banana republic. Unfortunately, we are approaching that threshold at breathtaking speed

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What’s Driving The Stock Market Higher?

As you very well know, many have been scratching their heads while trying to figure out what is pushing this highly speculative stock market ever higher. I have already illustrated a number of times that institutions are net sellers and while retail investors are buyers, the overall amount is not nearly enough to push the stock market to all time highs.

So, who is buying? 

In-short, corporate buybacks are the most likely culprit in today’s stocks market rally. The rich get richer as stock buybacks surge.

Repurchases and buybacks soared nearly 60 percent in the first quarter, putting a floor under a market that struggled amid a brutal winter and an economy that contracted at least 1 percent. Companies have used bargain-basement interest rates to borrow money for stock purchases. In all, corporations increased buybacks by 59 percent to $159.3 billion, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. That’s up strongly from the $100 billion for the same period in 2013 and a bit below the $172 billion high set in the third quarter of 2007, just before the financial crisis and market crash that sent indexes plunging 60 percent.

Nothing new here as corporations continue to act as Individual/Retail investors.AKA…..Stupid Money. What’s worst is that they are borrowing money to speculate in their own stocks on margin. Driving up stock bonuses and corporate payouts for their management teams. Yet, we all know how this story ends. Just take a look at 2007-2009.

GEOPOLITICAL & MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS:  

With the week ending where it began, most of the issues discussed in last week’s update remain intact. Below is a re-print of last week’s update.

This was not a good week in terms of geopolitics. With so many conflicts happening simultaneously it certainly feels as if the world is going to hell in a hand basket.   Let’s take a quick look at the three  of the most important ones and see if they can impact our financial markets.

• Ukraine/Russia/NATO/USA/EU: As I have mentioned in last week’s update this situation continues to die off. While there is cease fire and with Putin suggesting that he will not invade, this issue might be on  a verge of completion. With that said and as with any conflict, a quick re-escalation is always a possibility. Unfortunately, the US relationship with Russia will continue to deteriorate for as long as this administration remains in place. If the conflict dies off, there shouldn’t be any impact on our financial markets.
• China/USA/NATO/Philippines/Vietnam/Taiwan/Japan:  China has already said, in no uncertain terms and a number of times, that it wants the US military presence out of Asia.  China will continue to flex its military muscles to try and control the entire region.  While there have been a number of incidents, thus far they have not caused any major problems. Yet, make no mistake, the pressure is building and this powder keg will explode. Sooner or later. No impact on our financial markets as of today.
• Iraq/Syria/USA: In a stunning turn of events, various factions of Islamic militants, crazies, al-queda, etc….. have nearly completed their takeover of Iraq in a matter of day.   Given the circumstances and reports coming out of the Iraq, it is probable that Baghdad might fall to these militant groups within a matter of weeks. Giving them control of the entire country. No amount of “strategic bombing” by the US will prevent that from happening. Only an invasion can and no one is willing to do that.

This is the most important issue now….. on two fronts. First, if successful, these Islamic militants will be able to use Iraq and parts of Syria as lawless land where anything and everything goes. Further destabilizing the region and having the ability to train as many terrorists as their little hearts desires. This will come back to haunt us. Second, OIL & OIL money.  They might end up as the wealthiest terrorist organization ever created, destabilizing the oil markets in the process.  We must watch this situation very carefully and anticipate that it MIGHT have an adverse impact on our financial markets.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR THE DOW JONES:  

Long-Term: The trend is still up. Market action in January-February could be viewed as a simple correction in an ongoing bull market. Same applies to the market action over the last few months. Yet, that in itself can be misleading as per our timing analysis discussion below.

Intermediary-Term: Since February 5th, intermediary term picture shifted from negative to positive. Giving us a technical indication that both the intermediary term and the long term trends are up. Yet, that in itself can be misleading as per our timing analysis discussion below.

Short-Term: Short-term trend remains positive for the time being. The Dow would have to break below 16,700 for the short-term trend to shift from positive to negative.

Again, even though all 3 trends are bullish for the time being, that might be misleading. Please read our Mathematical and Timing Analysis to see what will transpire over the next few weeks.    

MATHEMATICAL & TIMING ANALYSIS:  

It’s going to be a long one.

First, a re-cap. Particularly for our new subscribers. Over the last few months we have maintained that the DOW will….. 

(*** Please Note: This time around about 90% of the information contained within this section has been deliberately removed as it contain too much technical information. Particularly, exact dates and prices of the upcoming turning points. As well as trading forecasts associated with them. I deem such information to be too valuable to be released onto the general public.  As such, this information is only available to my premium subscribers. If you are a premium subscriber please Click Here to log in. If  you would be interested in becoming a subscriber and gaining access to the most accurate forecasting service available anywhere, a forecasting service that gives you exact turning points in both price and time, please Click Here to learn more.Don’t forget, we have a risk free 14-day trial).

In conclusion, xxxx

Longer-Term Overview:

The next turning point is located at……

Date: XXXX 
Price: XXXX

TRADING: 

I am now fully committed to the XXXX side of the market with 11 individual positions taken at the prices outlined below. A lot of them have done incredibly well thus far and I hope you were able to benefit as well. I will be updating you of any changes or anticipated changes before they take place.

Remember, you should have an exact strategy and entry/exit points based on the forecast above. 

The list below is for your reference point. It entails my investment strategy for my own investment purposes. While you are free to follow me, please do so at your own risk. Do not take this as a trading advice. Please note, all of the positions below have been triggered.    

Stock	Entry Point ($)	Action Taken	Stop Loss @
xxxx	xxxx	xxxx	91
xxxx	xxxx	xxxx	1250
xxxx	110	xxxx	121-123
xxxx	74	xxxx	80
xxxx	xxxx	xxxx	260
xxxx	xxxx	xxxx	460
xxxx	35	xxxx	39
xxxx	65	xxxx	70
xxxx	120	xxxx	120-130
xxxx	100	xxxx	108-112
xxxx	112	xxxx	120

Otherwise, I suggest the following positioning over the next few days/weeks to minimize the risk while positioning yourself for a forecasted market action. (This is continuation of our previous positioning).

If You Are A Trader:  XXXX

If No Position:  XXXX

If Long: XXXX

If Short:  XXXX

CONCLUSION: 

An incredibly important week is coming up. We are now looking for our forecasts above to be confirmed over the next few trading days/weeks. I have also described what to anticipate over the next few months and exactly what you should do now. With increased volatility, multiple interference patterns and an incredibly important long-term turning points coming up over the next few months we must be very careful and risk averse here.  Those anticipating the moves and those who can time them properly will be rewarded appropriately.

Please Note: XXXX is available to our premium subscribers in our + Subscriber Section. It’s FREE to start. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast. June 28th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com Google

 Weekly Update & Summary: June 21st, 2014

A positive week with the Dow Jones up 171 points (+1.02%) and the Nasdaq up 57 points (+1.33%). As of Friday, the large upside gap that was left behind on June 11th @16,945 was successfully closed. With the market setting daily highs, no other upside gaps remain at this time.

However, we continue to have a number of large down gaps, the one on May 27th, two large gaps on May 21st/23rd and two large gaps on April 14th/16th. Indicating an eventual correction. Further, there are a number of smaller gaps left leading all the way down to February 5th low.  We continue to believe that the Dow will close such gaps when the next bear leg develops at below mentioned time frames (please see mathematical analysis & timing section below).

WEEKLY REVIEW:

American Total Debt Level Reaches Unprecedented Benchmark

American total debt level (government, business, mortgage, consumer) has hit an unprecedented level of 60 Trillion dollars. Well, $59.4 Trillion to be exact. A number so staggering that is truly impossible to comprehend. Yet, let’s give it a try. Here is what you can buy for 60 Trillion….

• 15 Trillion Big Macs at McDonald’s
• 60 Million McMansions at $1 Million each.
• 240,000 Boeing’s 777
• Or you would have to spend about $2 Million per every single minute of your life if you are to live for 70 years.

It would only be appropriate if the stock market celebrates this amazing achievement with another stock market rally. On a more serious note, there is absolutely no way that the US Government or the US Citizens can repay this amount of debt. Given our current economic environment, it would have to be inflated away. That is precisely what my mathematical and timing work shows.

Even though there are signs of inflation, technically we are still in a deflationary environment. With more debt defaults and debt liquidation coming during the bear market of 2014-2017, deflation will continue to rule. Yet, come 2017 we should see ever increasing pressure on the inflationary front. Slow at first and accelerating into double digit inflation towards the 2030′s. That in itself will create a huge mess, but it’s too early to talk about that at this stage.

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Too Much Cash On The Sidelines. Are Markets About To Stage A Massive Rally?

Tech Bubble top, Housing & Credit Bubble top……and now a “I Am A Stupid Idiot Who Never Learns Bubble” top?  Not according David Seaburg head of equity sales at Cowen and Company. Based on his research, there is a massive amount of cash on the sideline and the markets are about to surge higher.

“This could set up for a year-end chase rally when we start to see a lot of this money get put to work. Come September, we could see a massive move up. You are going to see the market grind up and people will be chasing performance until year end…. Everybody is super confused. When we start to see more data come in positive, you will start to see that cash be put back into the market.”

I agree with him on one thing, everyone is super confused. Yet, I don’t think it points to massive rally by the end of the year. On the contrary. Money managers are sitting in cash because everything has been driven into a bubble territory. I am a perfect example that. There is absolutely nothing to buy. As a fundamental value investor I am unable to find anything of value. ZERO. Not a single company is “undervalued”. If that doesn’t scare you, I am not sure what will.

Further, my advanced mathematical and timing work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning exactly when this bear market will start in 2014 (to the day), please CLICK HERE. 

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China’s Massive Debt Experiment Continues Unabated.

China’s massive credit bubble continues to expand China Inc borrows $14 trillion, overtakes US as top corporate borrower-S&P.  Here are just a few bits that should scare the bejeezus out of you.

• Chinese corporate borrowers owed $14.2 trillion at the end of 2013 Vs $13.1 trillion owed by U.S. corporations.
• This means that as much as 10 percent of global corporate debt is exposed to the risk of a contraction in China’s informal banking sector.
• Cash flows and leverage at Chinese corporations are the worst among global peers, having deteriorated from being the best in 2009.

As I have mentioned in the past, most of China’s economic growth over the last 5-years has been financed by a massive credit expansion. The likes of which we have never seen before. The result? 

• $21 Trillion Debt Mountain. Roughly the same size as the entire US Banking Sector. It took the US 220 years to get to that number, it took China just 5 years of explosive credit growth.
• $6 Trillion In Shadow Banking. Actually, no one knows how large this number is. I have read good data/reports putting this number at $10-15 Trillion range.
• Empty cities, shopping centers, massive speculative bubble in real estate, built out infrastructure, rising cost of labor and export driven economy.

How much longer can this go on? Well, that’s a Trillion dollar question…..or a $40 Trillion dollar question. Either way, one thing is for sure, this will not end well nor will it end in an orderly fashion.

GEOPOLITICAL & MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS:  

With the week ending where it began, most of the issues discussed in last week’s update remain relevant. Below is a re-print of last week’s update.

This week has not been a good week from a geopolitical sense. With so many conflicts happening simultaneously it certainly feels as if the world is going to hell in a hand basket.   Let’s take a quick look at the three  of the most important ones and see if they can impact our financial markets.

• Ukraine/Russia/NATO/USA/EU: As I have mentioned in last week’s update this situation continues to die off. While there is an all out conflict and a mini civil war,  this issue might be on  a verge of completion. With that said and as with any conflict, a quick re-escalation is always a possibility. Unfortunately, the US relationship with Russia will continue to deteriorate for as long as this administration remains in place. If the conflict dies off, there shouldn’t be any impact on our financial markets.
• China/USA/NATO/Philippines/Vietnam/Taiwan/Japan:  China has already said, in no uncertain terms and a number of times, that it wants the US military presence out of Asia.  China will continue to flex its military muscles to try and control the entire region.  While there have been a number of incidents, thus far they have not caused any major problems. Yet, make no mistake, the pressure is building and this powder keg will explode. Sooner or later. No impact on our financial markets as of today.
• Iraq/Syria/USA: In a stunning turn of events, various factions of Islamic militants, crazies, al-queda, etc….. have nearly completed their takeover of Iraq in a matter of day.   Given the circumstances and reports coming out of the Iraq, it is just a matter of days before Baghdad falls and militants gain control of the entire country. No amount of “strategic bombing” by the US will prevent this. Only an invasion can and no one is willing to do that.

This is the most important issue now….. on two fronts. First, if successful, these Islamic militants will be able to use Iraq and parts of Syria as lawless land where anything and everything goes. Further destabilizing the region and having the ability to train as many terrorists as their little hearts desires. This will come back to haunt us. Second, OIL & OIL money.  They might end up as the wealthiest terrorist organization ever created, destabilizing the oil markets in the process.  We must watch this situation very carefully and anticipate that it WILL have an adverse impact on our financial markets.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR THE DOW JONES:  

Long-Term: The trend is still up. Market action in January-February could be viewed as a simple correction in an ongoing bull market. Same applies to the market action over the last few months. Yet, that in itself can be misleading as per our timing analysis discussion below.

Intermediary-Term: Since February 5th, intermediary term picture shifted from negative to positive. Giving us a technical indication that both the intermediary term and the long term trends are up. Yet, that in itself can be misleading as per our timing analysis discussion below.

Short-Term: Short-term trend remains positive for the time being. The Dow would have to break below 16,600 for the short-term trend to shift from positive to negative.

Again, even though all 3 trends are bullish for the time being, that might be misleading. Please read our Mathematical and Timing Analysis to see what will transpire over the next few weeks.    

MATHEMATICAL & TIMING ANALYSIS:  

It’s going to be a long one.

First, a re-cap. Particularly for our new subscribers. Over the last few months we have maintained that the DOW will….. 

(*** Please Note: This time around about 90% of the information contained within this section has been deliberately removed as it contain too much technical information. Particularly, exact dates and prices of the upcoming turning points. As well as trading forecasts associated with them. I deem such information to be too valuable to be released onto the general public.  As such, this information is only available to my premium subscribers. If you are a premium subscriber please Click Here to log in. If  you would be interested in becoming a subscriber and gaining access to the most accurate forecasting service available anywhere, a forecasting service that gives you exact turning points in both price and time, please Click Here to learn more.Don’t forget, we have a risk free 14-day trial).

In conclusion, xxxx

Longer-Term Overview:

The next turning point is located at……

Date: XXXX 
Price: XXXX

TRADING: 

I am now fully committed to the XXXX side of the market with 11 individual positions taken at the prices outlined below. A lot of them have done incredibly well thus far and I hope you were able to benefit as well. I will be updating you of any changes or anticipated changes before they take place.

Remember, you should have an exact strategy and entry/exit points based on the forecast above. 

The list below is for your reference point. It entails my investment strategy for my own investment purposes. While you are free to follow me, please do so at your own risk. Do not take this as a trading advice. Please note, all of the positions below have been triggered.    

Stock	Entry Point ($)	Action Taken	Stop Loss @
xxxx	xxxx	xxxx	91
xxxx	xxxx	xxxx	1250
xxxx	110	xxxx	121-123
xxxx	74	xxxx	80
xxxx	xxxx	xxxx	260
xxxx	xxxx	xxxx	460
xxxx	35	xxxx	39
xxxx	65	xxxx	70
xxxx	120	xxxx	120-130
xxxx	100	xxxx	108-112
xxxx	112	xxxx	120

Otherwise, I suggest the following positioning over the next few days/weeks to minimize the risk while positioning yourself for a forecasted market action. (This is continuation of our previous positioning).

If You Are A Trader:  XXXX

If No Position:  XXXX

If Long: XXXX

If Short:  XXXX

CONCLUSION: 

An incredibly important week is coming up. We are now looking for our forecasts above to be confirmed over the next few trading days/weeks. I have also described what to anticipate over the next few months and exactly what you should do now. With increased volatility, multiple interference patterns and an incredibly important long-term turning points coming up over the next few months we must be very careful and risk averse here.  Those anticipating the moves and those who can time them properly will be rewarded appropriately.Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast. May 31st, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

Please Note: XXXX is available to our premium subscribers in our + Subscriber Section. It’s FREE to start. 

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Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast. June 21st, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com Google