12/17/2014 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 288 points (+1.69%) and the Nasdaq up 96 points (+2.11%)
People tend to analyze and over analyze every word of the FED statement as if it was a new addition to the Old Testament. Trading aside, take a step back and consider the following when it comes to the FED.
First, the Fed is a reactionary force. Just like the rest of us, they “buy at the top and sell at the bottom”. Bernanke’s minutes in Q1 of 2008 that the enconomy was overheating is a clear indication of that. They cannot see market and economic turbulence if it hit them in the face.
Second, the FED wants “normalized” or higher interest rates as soon as possible. They clearly understand that they need to raise rates in time for the next recession. It has been close to 5 years since the last recession ended and they know the next one is not that far behind. Should they fail to raise rates, they will have very little ammunition (outside of another round of QE) to fight the next decline. That is to say, they will raise rates in 2015
Finally, when you put the facts above together you realize the FED will raise interest rates right into a bear market of 2014-2017. No matter what and just as they have done every single time in the past. Even though they shouldn’t. With that in mind, right about now would be a good time to get out of the stock market.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. December 18th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
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