10/6/2015 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 14 points (+0.08%) and the Nasdaq down 33 points (-0.69%)
As the market was hitting lows last Monday/Tuesday, I published the following article What You Ought To Know About Everyone Being Too Bearish.
What a difference one week makes. Today, most market pundits, financial media commentators and money managers are falling all over each other to call the market bottom. For instance….
- The worst may be behind us: Bob Doll
- Good news: No one expects much from stocks
- Citigroup Says Investors Should Be ‘Brave’ and Buy Stocks
I am not sure if it is a good idea to use “Brave” in financial analysis/advice, but what do I know. Most people called me “Chicken Little” and “Boy Who Cried Wolf” throughout 2007. That is, until the market rolled over and collapsed.
Whether or not we have hit bottom is yet to be seen. But one thing is certain. The fundamental drivers behind today’s market have not changed in one week. Particularly……
- The FED is stuck in the worst possible position. Unable to raise interest rates and/or stimulate the economy further.
- With QE, zero interest rates and stock buybacks monetary velocity slowing, there is nothing to propel us forward.
- The US Economy is rolling over into a recessionary environment.
- Earnings are expected to decline. If not collapse. Just as they did in 2008/2009.
- All of the above should send chills down investors spines once they realize the stock market is selling at a Shiller Adjusted S&P P/E multiple that is the 3rd highest in history. Right behind 1929 and 2000 tops and on par with 2007 top.
Finally, you won’t find Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Carl Icahn and many others switching to the bullish side just because the market staged a 2%+ rally. Don’t forget, these structural moves take time. In many cases years.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. October 6th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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