9/21/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 125 points (+0.77%) and the Nasdaq up 2 points (+0.04%)
The FED generals are out in force to proclaim that the FED hike is still possible later on this year. Nothing new here, they have been feeding this to investors since the beginning of this year.
- Fed’s Bullard: October rate hike possible, but …
- Fed’s Lockhart says risks of delaying rate hike not significant
- Fed’s Williams says decision not to raise rates was a ‘close call’
With that in mind, someone should tell the FED that their credibility is now gone. Most investors have figured out by now that they will not raise. Not in October and not next year. For the reasons outlined here, Can The Stock Market Crash Due To The FED’s Inability To Raise Interest Rates? and here The FED Blinks. How Will The Market React?
In terms of the stock market, it might be as simple as this. Occam’s razor says the stock market is in a downtrend
In addition to that, the Dow Theory (if you are a follower) has confirmed a shift into a bear market at the same time. So much so that the stock market would have to stage quite a rally, pushing itself to new highs, just to force itself out of this longer-term bearish pattern.
Is that impossible?
Not necessarily, but you better have a good response to the following question…..why would it?
- Are earnings about to surge higher? Especially now that the liquidity is drying up and stock buybacks are slowing down.
- Will the US Economy stage some sort of a miraculous recovery and surge higher?
- Will the FED flood the market with QE-4..5…6 and negative interest rates?
- Are we in a “this time is different” environment where the stocks are no longer expensive?
And you if you have answered “YES” to any of the above, you might want max out your margin and load up on stocks here.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. September 21st, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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