BusinessWeek Writes: The Importance of Tuning Out the Noise

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 300 points yesterday on news of talks in Washington to resolve the government shutdown/debt ceiling crisis. Was it a relief rally? A head fake? Will the points disappear if the talks don’t produce results?

Who knows? I don’t. Nor does Wall Street or the finest brain cells and black boxes in Connecticut hedgie-land. Even the most powerful and decorated economists in the country were pretty much blindsided by the Great Subprime Meltdown, a trauma that chopped stocks in half in just months.

So, yes, we’re all pretty much flying blind.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

Articles such as these anger me. They perpetuate the notion that predicting financial markets is impossible and that no mortal should even attempt to try it.  If they do, they are surely to fail.  After all,  if not even “brilliant” Nobel winning economist can predict the future, what chance do you have?

Actually, a very good one.  In fact, it is very hard for me to understand why most people or our “brilliant economist” can’t see the future.  I am not by any measure brilliant, yet I could clearly see the 2007-2009 meltdown coming as early as 2005. I have even tried to warn people, yet most wouldn’t listen. Today, it is clear as night and day as well. Not only from the fundamental perspective, but from a cyclical and technical one as well. They all confirm.

Basically, the US Economy and its financial markets are about ready to roll over and go down significantly. No, it will not be an overnight drop, but it is now unavoidable.  My work indicates that it will take 2-3 years for the market to hit its lows with lots of up and downs in between. I will present my timing work over the next few months that will illustrate that a little bit better. 

My only advice is this. We are not flying blind. Ignore financial media and concentrate on reality and fundamentals. When you do, you will very soon realize exactly where we are in the economic cycle and clearly see what is coming up over the next few years. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!