10/22/2014 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 153 points (-0.92%) and the Nasdaq down 37 points (-0.83%).
The market continues to perform exactly as anticipated. In the meantime, most people believe the correction is over. After October dip, stocks may be ready for a rip. A quick summary:
In 11 past years, the S&P has hit a 12-month high in September before correcting at least 5 percent from that high at some point in October, according to Jason Goepfert of SentimenTrader. Goepfert went on to find that in the Novembers that followed, the S&P had a positive month in eight of 11 times. Even more impressive, the market was positive through December in 10 of 11 years, gaining at least 3 percent in each year besides the infamous 1929.
Again, the analysis above is idiotic. Anyone who makes investment decisions based on the above is bound to lose a lot of money. It is as simple as that.
Instead…. consider the following.
- The stock market is incredibly overpriced. By most valuation metrics. With some valuations pushing 2007 and 2000 (nasdaq) tops.
- The 5 year bull market cycle is now over.
- We are still in a 17 year secular bear market that started in 2000. The last 2-3 years are always down.
- There are no bears left. Everyone has capitulated.
- Bulls see every 5-10% correction as a buying opportunity of a lifetime. Like today.
- The FED is tightening and any remaining QE velocity is collapsing.
- Massive divergences. Particularly with the bond market.
- Smart investors like Icahn, Soros, Faber, Rogers are shorting this market.
- Etc….I can list another 20 points, but you get the idea.
Still think the Dow will be 20,000 by the end of the year? Yeah……good luck with that.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. October 22nd, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
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