11/9/2015 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 178 points (-0.99%) and the Nasdaq down 52 points (-1.01%)
It’s all about the FED. Right?
Not so fast. Last week it was December rate hike priced in? Maybe, experts say Today, we get a little sell-off and this headline pops up. Wall St. falls as rate hike looms and growth fears linger
Which one is it?
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the FED is now irrelevant. Why the FED will not raise rates in a meaningful way.
Instead, investors should concentrate on what the market charts are telling them.
Before we get there, let me ask you something. What has changed between September 29th bottom and today? NOTHING FUNDAMENTAL, only investor sentiment. Where on September 29th investors were freaking out and numerous commentators were calling for an all out market crash, today it’s the opposite. Apparently, the bear market is over and we are getting ready to surge higher.
Yet, fundamentally speaking, we are still in the same conundrum. I continue to maintain that we are witnessing a major slow down in earnings and the US Economy. Most corporates missing and guiding lower is a clear evidence of that. Forward guidance is down 2%. Sure, some companies like Google, Amazon, etc…. are outperforming, but they are an exception, not the rule. The FED remains between the rock and a hard place. Unable to raise interest rates or stimulate the economy further.
If anything, we are getting numerous confirmations that earnings and the US Economy are falling apart.
As they say, a picture is worth a thousand words. The charts below should at least give bulls indigestion. Please note, some of the charts below are a few days/weeks old. Yet, their meaning or composition have not changed.
Chart #1: Hey everyone, look at all of those gaps. If you think the market won’t come back to close them, sooner or later, you are living in a fantasy land. But listen, we are all adults here. Who am I to tell you NOT to buy Amazon, Facebook, Google, etc….at today’s ridiculous valuation levels. As Citigroup suggests, “Be brave and go long”.
Chart #2: Oldie but goodie. Again, overall earnings/economy are slowing down while Shiller’s adjusted S&P ratio is at its 3rd highest level in history. Investors have paid more for stocks on two other occasions. In 1929 and 2000. But, unlike yours truly, most bulls don’t mind paying the same premium today.
Chart #3: Look at all of these non-confirmations from Russell 2000, Dow Transports and Biotech (IBB). These are just a few. There are many other. New Bull market??? Yeah, sure…..to infinity and beyond.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. Noveber 9th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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These Shocking Charts Lead To Bullish Nightmares. At Least They Should. Google