– State of the Market Address:
- The Dow is back above 24,000
- Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 31.74 Slightly off highs, but still arguably at the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
- Weekly RSI at 52 – neutral. Daily RSI is at 50 – neutral.
- Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 19,100 today (on weekly).
- Weekly Stochastics at 28 – neutral. Daily at 83 – Overbought.
- NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +1 – Neutral.
- Commercial VIX interest is now 70K contracts net short.
- Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) have, more or less, shifted back into a net bearish position. For now, the Dow is 2X net short, the S&P is at 4.5X net short, Russell 2000 is 2X net short and the Nasdaq is 2X net long.
ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:
Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.
Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the Wilshire 5000.
Explanation:
Long-Term: It appears the Wilshire 5000 is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year. Did it already complete? Click Here
Short-Term: It appears the Wilshire 5000 might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market. Did it already complete? Click Here
If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here.
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