Weekly Update & Summary: April 5th, 2014

An interesting week. Even though the markets sold off on Friday, the Dow ended the week with a gain. In fact, for the week the Dow Jones was up 90 points (0.55%) while the Nasdaq declined 28 points (-0.67%). Structurally, the market did very well by closing most of it’s gaps. While the Nasdaq closed all of its gaps, the Dow has a number of large gaps left, leading all the way down to around 16,050 (indicating further downside). I believe the market will go back to close these gaps when the bear market initiates.

WEEKLY REVIEW:

Is Another 1987 Type Of A Market Crash Around The Corner?

The chart above has spread around the financial community like a wildfire, predicting a 1987 type of a crash (20% down in 1-2 trading days) Is it legit? The chart is legit, but comparing today’s market environment to 1987 is like looking up horses ass to see its teeth -OR- it confuses cause and effect.

While I am not suggesting that the crash is not possible, you could compare today’s market to many of the 5-year cycles I have described on this blog. Click Here to read some of it. In a nutshell, today’s market matches many other 5 year cycles, not only 1987….1924-1929, 1932-1937, 1961-1966, 1982-1987, 1994-2000, 2002-2007, 2009-2014, etc…there are many others.

When the 5 year cycle completes itself the market tends to roll over. It will not be different this time around. Whether the market will crash or simply roll over into a sustain long term bear market is irrelevant here. What is relevant? The bear market of 2014-2017 is just around the corner and it will slam stocks over the next few years. If you would like to know exactly when it will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please Click Here.

Why Job Numbers Are Irrelevant

While everyone is scouring recently released Bureau of Labor Jobs Report, looking for any sign of economic clarity, I am here to tell you that such data is for the most part irrelevant when it comes to forecasting financial markets and/or the economy. If you are still wondering, March payroll came in it at 192,000, keeping the unemployment rate unchanged at 6.7%. Giving further indication that any tapering or tightening by the FED might come later than anticipated and not be as benign as some have feared. Great news for Wall Street.

Yet, all of the above is irrelevant. If you have been following this blog for any period of time you know that I have stated, a number of times, that the FED will not be raising interest rates anytime soon due to an upcoming bear market of 2014-2017 and the subsequent US recession. While the job report above could be viewed as “no tightening”, it should be viewed as “any existing economic recovery/growth is running out of gas”. Once that settles is, expect the markets to sell off.

Janet Yellen: Forget About Rate Hikes

As per report below, according to Janet Yellen’s indicators the US Economy is nowhere near where it should be for the rates to rise anytime soon. That is despite the stock market being up over 150% over the last 5 years. In fact, today’s ADP Job Report missed the mark for the 4th month in a row with 191,000 jobs created VS 195,000 expected. Becoming just another confirmation of what we have been saying all along here.

Forget about any rate increases over the next few years. That becomes more apparent when you look at our mathematical and timing work forecasts. Once again, they predict a sharp bear market between 2014-2017 and a subsequent deep recession in the US Economy. Under such circumstances, the FED will be looking for every possible avenue to re-inflate the markets instead of raising rates. In other words, as of today, most market participants are positioned in precisely the wrong way. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and it’s internal composition, please Click Here.

MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS:

Ukraine/Russia continues to be the most important issue. In fact, things might escalate significantly over the next few weeks.

Even though it seems as if the situation in Ukraine is de-escalating and no invasion will occur, that in itself might be misleading. I continue to believe the US/NATO and Russia are one spark away from reigniting this conflict and going at each other on multiple levels. While I don’t believe NATO and Russia will get involved into a direct military conflict (for the time being), any misstep here by either side might lead to Russia invading East Ukraine. Such a move will spark a number of economic sanctions (from both sides), political storm, war rhetoric and a million other unforeseen consequences. As you can imagine, this would be incredibly unsettling for financial markets.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

Long-Term: The trend is still up. Market action in January-February could be viewed as a simple correction in an ongoing bull market. The Dow did set a new high during the week, indicating continuation of the bull market. Yet, that in itself can be misleading as per our timing analysis discussion below.

Intermediary-Term: Since February 5th, intermediary term picture shifted from negative to positive. Giving us a technical indication that both the intermediary term and the long term trends are up. Yet, that in itself can be misleading as per our timing analysis discussion below.

Short-Term: While the short-term trend remains bullish, it might be misleading as per our timing analysis discussion below.

Again, even though all 3 trends are bullish for the time being, that might be misleading. Please read our Mathematical and Timing Analysis to see what will transpire over the next few weeks.

MATHEMATICAL & TIMING ANALYSIS:

First, a review. Thus far, our forecasts have been, right on the money.

(*** Please Note: This time around about 90% of the information contained within this section has been deliberately removed as it contain too much technical information. Particularly, exact dates and prices of the upcoming turning points. As well as trading forecasts associated with them. I deem such information to be too valuable to be released onto the general public. As such, this information is only available to my premium subscribers. If you are a premium subscriber please Click Here to log in. If you would be interested in becoming a subscriber and gaining access to the most accurate forecasting service available anywhere, a forecasting service that gives you exact turning points in both price and time, please Click Here to learn more.Don’t forget, we have a risk free 14-day trial).

Based on our mathematical and timing work the next turning point is located at

Price: XXXX
Time: XXXX

Trading:

I am now fully committed to the short side of the market with 10 individual positions taken at the prices outlined below. A lot of them have done incredibly well thus far and I hope you were able to benefit as well. I might add just one more short position over the next few weeks. That would be XXXX

Remember, you should have an exact strategy and entry/exit points based on the forecast above.

The list below is for your reference point. It entails my investment strategy for my own investment purposes. While you are free to follow me, please do so at your own risk. Do not take this as a trading advice. Please note, most of the positions below have already been triggered.

Stock	Entry Point ($)	Action Taken	Stop Loss @
XXXX	XXXX	Went Short	XXXX
XXXX	XXXX	Went Short	1250
XXXX	110	Went Short	121-123
XXXX	74	Went Short	80
XXXX	XXXX	Went Short	260
XXXX	XXXX	Went Short	460
XXXX	35	Went Short	39
XXXX	65	Went Short	70
XXXX	120	Went Short	120-130
XXXX	100	To Short
XXXX	112	Went Short	120

Otherwise, I suggest the following positioning over the next few days/weeks to minimize the risk while positioning yourself for a forecasted market action. (This is continuation of our previous positioning).

If You Are A Trader: XXXX

If No Position: XXXX

If Long: XXXX

If Short: XXXX

CONCLUSION:

An incredibly important week is coming up. We are now looking for our forecast to be confirmed over the next few trading days/weeks. I have also described what to anticipate over the next few months and exactly what you should do. With increased volatility, multiple interference patterns and an incredibly important long-term turning points coming up over the next few months we must be very careful and risk averse here. Those anticipating the moves and those who can time them properly will be rewarded appropriately.

Please Note: XXXX is available to our premium subscribers in our + Subscriber Section. It’s FREE to start.

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