– State of the Market Address:
- The Dow is back above 25,000
- Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 33.25 Off highs, but still arguably at the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
- Weekly RSI at 61 – neutral. Daily RSI is at 52 – neutral.
- Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 18,900 today (on weekly).
- Weekly Stochastics at 49 – neutral. Daily at 66 – neutral
- NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +34 Neutral.
- Commercial VIX interest is now 15K contracts net short.
- Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) have, more or less, shifted into a bullish positioning. For now, the Dow is 2X net short, the S&P is at 3X net short, Russell 2000 is net neutral and the Nasdaq is now 3X net long.
In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear long-term bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead. Plus, the “smart money” is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.
If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here.
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ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:
Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.
Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the Wilshire 5000. Charts courtesy Daneric’s Elliott Waves
Explanation:
Long-Term: It appears the Wilshire 5000 is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year. Did it already complete? Click Here
Short-Term: It appears the Wilshire 5000 might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market. Did it already complete? Click Here
If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here.
ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.