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Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast – May 4th, 2018

– State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow is back above 24,000
  • Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 31.66. Slightly off highs, but still arguably at the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 50  – neutral. Daily RSI is at  49 – neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 19,100 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at  30  – neutral. Daily at 32 – neutral.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at 10 – Neutral.
  • Commercial VIX interest is now 30K contracts net short.
  • Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) have, more or less, shifted back to a net short position.  For now, the Dow is net neutral, the S&P is at 6X net short, Russell 2000 is 3X net short and the Nasdaq is 2.5X net long.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it. 

Z31

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the Wilshire 5000.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the Wilshire 5000 is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year. Did it already complete? Click Here

Short-Term: It appears the Wilshire 5000 might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market. Did it already complete? Click Here

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it. 

Z31