6/9/2015 – A slightly negative day with the Dow Jones down 4 points (-0.02%) and the Nasdaq down 8 points (-0.15%)
So, is there anything to worry about when it comes to the stock market?
Not according to the bulls. For instance….
Possible Q2 earnings recession nothing to lose sleep over
“When we see the price of oil this quarter, or last quarter which will affect this quarter’s earnings, it has gone up,” Drogen added. “And so we’re looking for better numbers than the Street is this quarter again and we don’t think there’s going to be an earnings recession. Currently, the magnitude of potential earnings growth is around negative 1% for this quarter, but there are still a few weeks left for the numbers shift as more data comes in.
Well, call me stupid, but I wouldn’t worry about earnings falling into a slightly negative territory if the S&P’s P/E ratio was, well, let’s say at around 5-10. However, I would have nightmares if Shiller P/E ratio was sitting at the 3rd highest reading in history (as it does today) and we had negative earnings growth.
What else the bulls don’t care about?
- Upcoming interest rate hikes – who cares, it’s already priced it.
- The US Economy rolling over into a recession – doesn’t matter.
- Velocity of capital is slowing – this metric is for losers.
- 11 Months of Distribution/Consolidation on NYSE – It’s 100% consolidation for sure.
- This 6 year bull cycle is pushing its limits – another 10 years to go. We are in a brand new secular bull market baby, +20% annual gains are a sure thing.
- Dow Transports are not confirming – confirming what….who cares.
- Multiple divergences on primary indices – the Fed will not let this market fall.
- Margin debt setting extreme record highs – well, duh, it’s a sure one way bet.
- Etc….
That’s quite a bit of “blissful ignorance” if you ask me. If history is any guide, this never ends well.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. June 9th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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