2/19/2016 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 22 points (-0.13%) and the Nasdaq up 17 points (+0.38%)
Let’s start with today’s long-term picture.
Quite a few investors today,particularly permabears, make the fatal mistake of assuming that today’s imbalances are so great that they will surely lead to a crash of historic proportions. Think in terms of 1929, 1937, 1972, 1987, 2000, etc…
Case and point……Chilling ways the global economy echoes 1930s Great Depression era
Let me tell you something, they are dead wrong and they will pay dearly for it. That is, when this bear market bottom comes and they are caught with their pants down shorting everything in sight.
Their misunderstanding stems from not fully understanding where we are in the overall cyclical composition of the market.
And where are we?
We are nearing completion of a 2000-2017 secular bear market. An exact analysis was outlined here previously….Year End #1 – Why This Analysis Scares The Bejesus Out Of Bulls
That is to say, we are in a period of time similar to 1912-1914, 1946-1949 and 1980-1982. And NO, we are NOT in danger of a major collapse suffered in 1929 or 1937 or 1972 or 1987, etc… Those tend to appear in early stages of bull/bear cycles. Not at the end.
In other words, those who expect financial Armageddon might have to wait a little bit longer. We won’t get one here. But don’t get me wrong, I am not saying that a substantial decline is not possible here.
Now, let’s take a look at the short-term composition.
Here is a good look at the subject matter…..Bearish engulfing’ pattern vies for financial-sector sway with bullish ‘abandoned baby’
Not bad, but I am sticking to my own and much more accurate/superior analysis. Here is the analysis presented to you a few weeks ago. Notice, we remain within the confines of my trading range.
We remain in a very complex market environment. Here is the chart I presented to you almost two weeks ago. Suggesting at the time that the market will remain within a certain trading range until the structure below (sphere) completes itself on a certain date and price. When it does, a powerful directional move will start. If you would like to find out when that PRICE/TIME arrives (to the day) and where the market will push next, please Click Here.
Finally, you might want to listen to what David Stockman is saying here. I don’t know what the bulls are smoking:
“I think your traders are smoking something stronger than what I can legally buy here in Colorado. Everywhere trade is drying up, shipping rates are at all-time lows,” he said. “There is a recession that’s going to engulf the entire world economy, including the United States.”
And while I am not sure what the bulls are smoking either, they are surely inhaling a lot of greed while exhaling a lot of BS.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 19th, 2016 InvestWithAlex.com
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What You Ought To Know About Today’s Stock Market Composition. Google