5/15/2015 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 20 points (+0.11%) and the Nasdaq down 2.5 points (-0.05%)
A massive and rather rapid stock market decline is coming later on this year. And while we won’t have a crash, considering the amount of margin debt out there, quite a few people will get wiped out. If you would like to find out exactly when this move will develop, to the day, please Click Here.
Despite the fact that the NYSE (largest index by capitalization) hasn’t gone anywhere since July 17th, 2014 (10 months if you can’t count), bullish spirits are running red hot. Don’t believe me? Let me show you just today’s news feed.
- 4 reasons why bulls will shatter stock market ceiling
- The screaming buy signal of gathering bears
- ‘Now-or-never’ fear drives corporate deal boom
“We think the S&P takes out 2120 and trades up to 2200.”
“If this market was going to crater, it would have done so already. At least that’s what Jani Ziedins of the Cracked Market blog believes. Instead, he says, the smart money is holding strong, waiting for the skeptics to surrender and fuel the next leg up.”
The psychology seems to be: “I better lock in this deal while I can.” We might be seeing a similar pattern play out among corporate CEOs, who could soon choose to jump into the busy M&A game as they see borrowing rates turning higher.”
WOW!!! This much bullishness at once is making my head spin. Yet, should I dare to bring up the charts below, I get the following range of responses……
- Who cares…..we are in a long-term secular bull market – Hint: We are not.
- The US Economy is about to turn around and surge higher – Fair enough, but based on what? As I have argued before, there are no drivers to propel us forward.
- There are too many bears!!! – This is nonsense. Even the hardcore bears I know are scared to death to touch this market on the short side. Even most mainstream bears are suggesting that this bull market will continue.
- The valuations are NOT too high. – Take a look at the P/E chart below. I rest my case.
- The FED will backstop any and all market corrections, QE forever and other nonsense – Only a fool would make an investment decision based on the statements above. And let me tell you, there are quite a lot of fools out there.
- The market is consolidating as it gets ready for a breakout – I can just as easily argue that it is distributing.
- Etc…..
You get the idea. Call me a fool, but I have heard the exact same thing at 2000 and 2007 tops.
Historic Macro Vs Stock Market Data Divergence.
Inflation Adjusted S&P.
Adjusted P/E Ratio Is Near Historic Highs (only 2000 tech top stands higher).
In other words, you don’t have to be a genius to figure out what happens next.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 15th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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