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Why The FED Has No Clue

Daily Chart April 13 2015

4/13/2015 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 81 points (-0.45%) and the Nasdaq down 8 points (-0.15%). 

The stock market continues to behave as forecasted. If you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here.

Despite the appearance of having complete control over our financial markets, the FED might lose that power of perception fairly soon. And once the FED trade goes, the markets should implode. I have long argued that the FED has no idea of where we are and what their reckless QE and zero interest rate policy has done.  Case and point…..

Exclusive: Fed’s Williams sees less risk of rate retreat after lift-off

“So even if the economy got some bad shocks, really you are probably just talking about flattening that path out a bit, or maybe raising rates more slowly.”

Economic lift-off……what economic lift-off? See, I told you they were clueless. Over the last few months I have presented at least a dozen data points showing that the US Economy is rolling over and accelerating down. (Ex: chart below). Plus, forward earnings and guidance are expected to be adjusted lower due to the strong dollar and the same economic issues. We should see the evidence of that in Q-1 reports.

Finally, no matter what the FED says, asset bubbles do not translate to strong economic growth. The view Mr. Williams has is identical to the view Mr. Bernanke held in Q-1 of 2008. As the FED minutes revealed, Mr. Bernanke was concerned about overheating the economy and the housing sector. The 2007-2009 bear market was pushing into its 6th month by that point.

That is to say, don’t rely on the FED to make your investment decisions. And if you do, you will pay dearly for it.

Macrodata

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please NoteA bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 13th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

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