6/11/2015 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 39 points (+0.22%) and the Nasdaq up 6 points (+0.11%)
I can’t tell you how refreshing it is to find an economist who “gets it”. Instead of blowing smoke, in conjunction with the brain dead talking heads on CNBC. The article below is definitely worth 5 minutes of your times.
The Fed fears lifting interest rates, ex-insider says
Let me mention why I am worried about the current cycle. Monetary policy operates with a substantial lag and it is very important to be preemptive in policy action.
On this occasion what is the striking difference is that the Fed has not done anything to start the process of normalization yet, and, indeed, until last year it was injecting additional monetary policy accommodation in the economy and the economy has reached a situation where it is very close to its full strength.
Here is the difficulty. This is one of those situations where the longer the Fed waits to start the process of normalization, the more likely it is that the Fed will face a nasty dilemma. And what is that dilemma? The dilemma will be that they will realize that they need to tighten policy very abruptly to control inflation. Etc…
There you have it, from the horse’s mouth. In other words, the FED is screwed, the US Economy is screwed, the us equity/bond markets are screwed…..well, technically, everyone is screwed.
The final question is, if the FED refuses to raise rates and even attempts another round of QE, will the bond market do the job for them? The scary part is, it might be already doing so since the beginning of this year. Bond crash across the world as deflation trade goes horribly wrong
Needless to say, none of the above is currently being discounted by the stock market. YET!!!
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. June 11th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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