Why The FED Will Not Raise Interest Rates

Daily Chart August 19 2015

8/13/2015 – Another negative day with the Dow Jones down 160 points (-0.91%) and the Nasdaq down 40 points (-0.80%)

Let’s talk about today’s FOMC Minutes.

As the FED continues to beat around the bush, futures now suggest that the FED will forgo raising interest rates in September. This joyous realization was followed by “Let’s Party 150 Dow Point Spike” followed by a “Oh S#*$, the Economy Ain’t Alright” 150 point sell-off.

I will simply repeat what I have said here last week. No further commentary is necessary.

I am 75% confident that the FED will not raise interest rates at all and 100% confident that they will not raise it in any meaningful way. What is meaningful? Even 8 separate hikes at 25 bps each would be laughable here. And while anything above that will matter, I am extremely confident that we will not even get close to that over the next 2-5 years.

Here is why…….

Last week China has launched an official currency war by devaluing the Yuan 3 times in a row (thus far). Japan is trying to do the same and the EU is threatening further easing and/or QE. In this ocean of devaluation, the US cannot afford to have a strong currency.
Plus, the US Economy is rolling over into a recession. Some of today’s official numbers are starting to reflect that.
We are on the verge of a massive down leg in our equity markets. At least based on my mathematical and timing work.
Commodities have collapsed.
Deflationary forces are reappearing throughout the economy.
Etc….

As I have mentioned before, this is the worst case scenario for the FED. They are already TOO LATE. Now they are stuck in a situation where our economy and capital markets collapse while they are rendered powerless. As soon as other investors realize that……well…….watch out below.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. August 19th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com

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