While the market, at least for the time being, sees today’s FED tightening as a sign of strong future economic growth, it is a grave misconception. Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas states….
“I personally expect us to end that program in October,” Fisher said. “And then we have to see how the economy is doing, including these broader measures of unemployment, and where we stand, before we can talk about how we might move the short-term rate.”
I can tell you one thing, by the time they finish tightening in October it will be too late to save this market from it’s bear leg and this economy from a severe recession. It was this sort of backwards thinking that set off the 2008 crisis as well. Don’t get me wrong, I hate the QE and other stimulus as much as any other rational investor, yet tightening now is equivalent to financial suicide.
With the stock market being at an unsustainable (bubble) level and with the large chunk of the economy relying entirely on FED financing, massive liquidity and speculating, any tightening would not only slow the economy down, it will bring it to a screeching halt.
These developments are further confirmed by our mathematical and timing work. Again, our work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE
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Why The FED Will Tighten This Market To Oblivion Google
Bloomberg: Fed’s Fisher Says Economy Strengthening as Payrolls Rise
The U.S. economy is “moving in the right direction” and “getting stronger” as private-sector payrolls increase, saidRichard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
“The private sector is beginning to hire,” said Fisher, a voting member of the central bank’s policy committee, said today on the Fox News program ’’Sunday Morning Futures.’’ “We’d like to see that continue and, in fact, increase.”
Employers added 288,000 jobs in April, the biggest monthly gain in two years, the Labor Department reported May 2. At the same time, more than 800,000 people abandoned the labor force and the share of working-age Americans in a job or looking for one fell to a 36-year low.
“We’re continuing to see job creation,” and people who want jobs “will start looking for work, join the workforce, be hired, as business expands in the United States,” Fisher said.
Fisher has said the labor market has been hindered by a shortage of trained workers. The latest Fed Beige Book review of economic conditions highlighted the pinch, with employers in six of 12 districts — Dallas, New York, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago and Kansas City — reporting difficulty finding skilled workers.
In most areas around the nation, “there are jobs available in certain high-skilled areas, but we don’t have the educational basis for it or we don’t have the immigrant pool for it, or whatever it may be,” Fisher said today.
“There is a skills mismatch; that’s part of the problem,” he said.
Paring Buying
After accumulating assets to shore up the U.S. economy following the 2008 financial collapse, the Federal Reserve this year began paring bond buys amid improved job growth and household spending. As of last month, the Fed held almost $4.3 trillion in assets, a record.
Since December, policy makers have reduced their monthly purchases four times, in $10 billion increments, to $45 billion. The central bank is on course to wind down the stimulus by the end of the year and is likely to hold the benchmark interest rate near zero for a “considerable time” after that, according to an April 30 statement from the Federal Open Market Committee.
“I personally expect us to end that program in October,” Fisher said. “And then we have to see how the economy is doing, including these broader measures of unemployment, and where we stand, before we can talk about how we might move the short-term rate.”
Fisher last month warned that investors might be taking on excessive risk.
U.S. credit markets are “awash in liquidity” and potentially unsustainable stock-market valuations and bond yields “give rise to caution,” Fisher said in an April 4 speech in Hong Kong.
Fisher, 65, opposes Fed action that would increase inflation. Prices rose 1.2 percent in March from a year earlier, well short of the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation target.