timing is everything

January 9, 2015January 9, 2015

Carl Icahn: Don’t Expect Fast Oil Recovery

Over the last few weeks I have argued that oil price collapse appears to be more structural in nature as opposed to “temporary”.

What’s the difference?

Well, I believe investors and/or traders who are trying to time the oil market bottom in anticipation of making a large fortune will be mostly on the net negative side of the trade. Don’t get me wrong. Oil prices will bounce, at times significantly. Yet, anyone anticipating or betting on a large V shape recovery will be disappointed. Carl Icahn has the same view. If you follow the oil market I highly encourage you to watch the video below. A very solid point of view.

Carl Icahn: Don’t Expect Fast Oil Recovery Google

January 8, 2015

Investment Wisdom Of The Day

January 8, 2015January 8, 2015

Subprime Short Bets Big Against Junk Bonds…..Should You Follow?

high yield Since about the start of 2014 I have maintained that when a bear market of 2014-2017 kicks in, a number of things will happen. Junk bonds will blow sky high, 10-Year Note will test 1.5% (double bottom) and the stock market will drift lower. Driving both bulls and bears up the wall in the process.

Joshua Birnbaum, the Ex-Goldman trader who correctly shorted subprime mortgages during the financial crisis tends to agree.

Joshua Birnbaum, the ex-Goldman Sachs Group Inc. trader who made bets against subprime mortgages during the financial crisis, now has more than $2 billion in wagers against high-yield bonds at his Tilden Park Capital Management LP hedge-fund firm, according to investor documents.

I believe he is absolute right in his assessment. The situation is not that dissimilar from 2007-2009 period. Except, instead of “subprime” bubble we are currently going though a stock market overvaluation and junk debt bubble. There is just way too much risk in our financial system to warrant today’s valuation levels. Once the tide goes out, you will see junk yields surge. Counterparty risk associated with collapse of Russia (discussed earlier) might get this party going.

Subprime Short Bets Big Against Junk Bonds…..Should You Follow. Google

January 7, 2015

Oil Price Collapse: Just Speculation Or Massive Recession Ahead?

Daily Chart January 7th

1/7/2014 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 213 points (+1.23%) and the Nasdaq up 58 points (+1.26%).

This is an incredibly important question that just about impacts everything. Are oil prices down so much because…..

Oversupply, speculation, economic warfare against Russia & the US Shale Industry, etc….. -OR-
The entire worldwide economy is coming to a screeching halt.

Billionaire hedge fund manager Jeff Gundlach is asking the same thing.

Oil is incredibly important right now. If oil falls to around $40 a barrel then I think the yield on ten year treasury note is going to 1%. I hope it does not go to $40 because then something is very, very wrong with the world, not just the economy. The geopolitical consequences could be – to put it bluntly — terrifying.

For our purposes, that would mean the following. If oil prices are collapsing due to economic reasons as opposed to point “A”, then the stock market is just about to embark on a massive leg down. As you very well know, at today’s prices the stock market is pricing in strong economic growth, some would even claim that its valuation levels suggest an “economic miracle”. If that is not the case, as oil suggests, a huge down leg in equities might be just around the corner.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. January 7th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Oil Price Collapse: Just Speculation Or Massive Recession Ahead? Google

January 7, 2015January 7, 2015

Why Are Bond Yields Declining When Most Expect Interest Rates To Surge? – Daily Podcast

Visitor Question:Why Are Bond Yields Declining When Most Expect Interest Rates To Surge? Listen to our short 5-10 minute podcast to find out. Plus, don’t forget to email me your questions.

10-Year Note2

Why Are Bond Yields Declining When Most Expect Interest Rates To Surge? Google

January 7, 2015

Investment Wisdom Of The Day

InvestWithAlex Wisdom 4

Investment Wisdom Of The Day Google

January 7, 2015January 7, 2015

Why You Should Avoid The Presidential Cycle

presidential cycle

You know that bulls are running out of ammunition when the Presidential cycle is used as a catalyst for any future advance. Charts predict the best year to own stocks

From 1833 to 2012, the stock market has on average rallied 1.9 percent in the first year of a president’s term, 4.2 percent in year two and 5.8 percent in the fourth year. Year three is the biggest, and has a return of 10.4 percent market gain in the Dow Jones Industrial average (Dow Jones Global Indexes: .DJI). The only year this didn’t occur was in 1931, the height of the Great Depression. “It’s not just that the market tends to rise during the year before a presidential election. It’s the consistency of this pattern that is so impressive,” said the “Mad Money” host.

I guess it’s time to remind you, once again, that this type of analysis should have no place in financial market. Especially if you are interested in making money. Presidential cycles, years ending in 5, etc…..it’s a fools game. The stock market is a much more complex entity and the second you think you have got it it figured out, it changes. By design. In other words, this sort of simple analysis works only until it backfires, big time.

Why You Should Avoid The Presidential Cycle Google

January 6, 2015January 6, 2015

Bill Gross: Get Out Now

Daily Chart January 6nd

1/6/2015 – Another down day with the Dow Jones down 132 points (-0.75%) and the Nasdaq down 60 points (-1.30%).

The stock market continues to perform just as forecasted. If you would be interested in learning what happens next, please Click Here.

The biggest story in the market today is the plunge in interest rates. The 10-Year Note is now below 2%. We will discuss that in greater detail tomorrow. In the meantime, it is nice to find yourself on the same page as Bill Gross. Bloomberg: Bill Gross Says the Good Times Are Over

“When the year is done, there will be minus signs in front of returns for many asset classes,” Gross, 70, wrote in the outlook. “The good times are over.”

That’s quite a statement as he goes on to suggest that folks should get out of the way. I tend to agree with Bill and the subject matter is rather easy. The stock market is in a massive overvaluation bubble driven by QE, zero interest rates and speculative spirits. And even though the US Economy appears to be doing quite well, it is an illusion driven by all of the above. That is why the 10-year note is below 2%. The bond market is not buying it.

That is to say, imagine yourself at 2007 and 2000 tops and you will have a fairly good understanding of where we are today.

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Bill Gross: Get Out Now Google

January 6, 2015

Is Right Now A Good Time To Invest In Biotech? – Daily Podcast

Visitor Question: Is Right Now A Good Time To Invest In Biotech? Listen to our short 5-10 minute podcast to find out. Plus, don’t forget to email me your questions. IBB