1/2/2015 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 9 points (+0.06%) and the Nasdaq down 9 points (-0.20%).
A great year for InvestWithAlex.com. We were able to beat the pants off the Dow and 95% of money and hedge fund managers out there. Delivering a risk averse gain of 19.80% Vs the Dow’s +8.17%.
In the meantime, the stock market continues to perform just as anticipated. That’s one of the reasons I shut down shop on December 23rd and took a well deserved break. Telling my subscribers that the market will not do anything until 2015 rolls around. If you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here.
Now, during this down time so many “Bullish” articles came out that I almost blew a fuse. Almost. I am sure you have seen them, “The Secular Bull Market Is Just Starting, The Dow 20,000, Bears Will Get Run Over (what bears?), 2015 is Another 1999”, etc….. You get the picture.
The case for a bull market is fairly straight forward……..
- Most technical indicators have turned positive.
- The advance/decline line has turned up.
- The number of new 52-week highs has been expending.
- The Dow Theory continues to confirm a bull market.
- Most markets are at an all time high.
- Seasonality suggests that the bull market will continue.
- Republicans will bring business back. Presidential cycle suggests up markets.
- Oil prices are falling and that’s great for the overall economy.
- Corporate earnings are great, unemployment is low, fundamentals are good, confidence is up, etc……
- Oh and I almost forgot, everyone will get a Ferrari along with a massive tax return in early 2015.
In fact, if all of the facts above don’t make you want to pawn your left kidney and buy every stock under the sun, I don’t what will.
My response is………..so what?
All of the above is already well know and discounted by the market. As I have suggested so many times before, the market moves according to its own mathematical points of force, not fundamental data. Consider the following. Most of the bullish points above were just as relevant on September 19th as they are today. Yet, the stock market proceeded to top out and then decline close to 10% in a matter 3 short weeks.
That is to say, don’t for a second believe that this market cannot decline here, despite all the bullish sentiment. As a matter of fact, that is exactly when the market tend to “eat it”. Perhaps even faster than it bounced off of its October lows.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information here. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. January 2nd, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
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