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Whispering Stock Market. Are You Listening?

daily chart ADecember5 2014

12/5/2014 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 58 points (+0.33%) and the Nasdaq up 11 points (0.24%).  

A fairly good interview with Nouriel Roubini and I encourage you to take a look. As yours truly, Mr. Roubin believes that we are in a massive bubble. And while I agree with most of his views, one thing rubs me the wrong way. According to Nouriel, while we are in a massive bubble, it will not burst until 2016. Why 2016? Well, no real reason was provided and we might as well claim that this bubble will only burst in the year 2158 or tomorrow. Regardless, it is a good overall look at where we are today.

In the meantime, the yield curve continues to compress. Over the last few decades the yield curve has proven to be one of the best indicators of where we are headed. It is now signalling that a severe recession is just around the corner. And while the yield curve is a poor timing indicator, it works well when we combine it with today’s valuation levels. That  is to say, when the yield curve is compressing and you find stocks at historically high/extreme valuation levels, as they are today, it safe to assume that the market is topping out.

Yield Curve as of 2014 - Dec

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. December 5th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

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Whispering Stock Market. Are You Listening? Google

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The Nuclear World War 3 Is Coming Soon: Shocking TIME Formula Reveals Exactly When How & Why.

book - small coverI have argued since about this time last year that a new Cold War with Russia was starting. If you still don’t believe that the US is waging an all out economic war against Russia and its people, you are living under a rock.

With that said, here is what most Americans don’t understand. We have now passed the point of no return. Not in terms of going into an all out war against Russia (for the time being), but in terms of creating a real enemy. Putin and the Russian people will never forget this attack on their economy through the price of oil and destabilization of its currency. What’s worse for the US, this has unified Russia like never before. Consider the following….

Here is the bottom line. What you are witnessing today is a start of a new cold war that will eventually turn into an all out war. It will take quite a few years, but it will end badly for all of us. In fact, things continue to develop exactly as predicted in my newly published book (and previously published report) The Nuclear World War 3 Is Coming Soon: Shocking TIME Formula Reveals Exactly When How & Why.  Check it Out

Z31

The Nuclear World War 3 Is Coming Soon: Shocking TIME Formula Reveals Exactly When How & Why. Google

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Financial Advisers Now Shaming Investors Into Overpriced Equities

daily chart ADecember4 2014

12/4/2014 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 14 points (-0.08%) and the Nasdaq down 5 points (-0.11%). 

The market continues to perform as anticipated. Forget about that “good news is bad news and bad news is good news” stock market adage. We now exist in an alternative universe where everything is good news. Thanks to the FED. Consider the following stupidity.

I am not entirely sure why anyone pays attention to the ECB’s all talk and no action policy, but fair enough.  At the same time I am sad and discouraged that we live in the world where insane monetary policy is viewed as a solution to every slowdown. Where buying speculative assets and creating  massive worldwide equity bubbles is viewed as “stimulating the economy”. As Bill Gross says….”You can’t cure debt with more debt”. Crazy.

My initial reaction was……great…..financial advisers are finally doing their job by trying to warn their clients about today’s unsustainable valuation/speculation levels. NOPE. NOT EVEN CLOSE. They are shaming their clients for sitting on the sideline. That’s right, they are shaming people into investing at today’s exuberant valuation levels.

Just imagine a financial adviser pushing you to go LONG in January of 2000 and/or October of 2007 and you will have a clear understanding of what they are trying to do. You might be lucky enough to scrape a few % point of remaining upside only to see your portfolio suffer massive losses when a bear market finally rears its ugly head.

In other words, this is not going to end well.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. December 4th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Financial Advisers Now Shaming Investors Into Overpriced Equities  Google

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Deflation Vs. Inflation. Who Wins.

kondratieff-wave investwithalex

If you love economics, Deflation Is Going To Cause A Scary New Kind Of Debt Crisis article is a must read. It once again takes a look at where we are in terms of inflation vs. deflation debate.

I have been a strong proponent that the US economy has been in a “stealth” deflationary environment since at least the early 2000’s. I know there are a lot of people running around screaming inflation, but we must first define what inflation and deflation is. While there are many definitions, mine is …..Inflation is expansion of credit while deflation is contraction of credit. It is as simple as that.

The reason most people believe we are experiencing or will experience inflation and/or hyperinflation is due to the FED’s massive infusion of credit into our financial system over the last 10 years. Without it, we would have already seen concrete evidence of deflation throughout most sectors of the economy.

Here is the situation. Deflation is destruction of credit and subsequent decline of prices due to defaults, overcapacity and the looping trend that it generates. We have already started the process of deflation in two very important areas as per % of GDP. Financial and real estate sectors. In 2000-2003 and 2007-2009.

However, due to the FED’s criminal insistence on inflation at any cost, thus far, they have been successful in papering over any signs of a deflation by infusing massive amounts of credit and money supply into the US Financial system. As the article above confirms, such a move didn’t fix anything. Instead, it made matters worse and the upcoming recession more severe. With credit velocity now slowing down, more defaults and an all out deflation is unavoidable.

Z30

Deflation Vs. Inflation. Who Wins. Google

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Is Another Big Stock Market Correction Imminent?

daily chart ADecember3 2014

12/3/2014 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 33 points (+0.18) and the Nasdaq up 19 points (+0.39%)

While Wal Mart CEO believes we have reached the state of perpetually growing economy, 2% to 3% growth feels perpetual: Wal-Mart CEO, the stock market might be on a verge of a big sell-off.

We all know the story. It is overpriced, overextend and very well could be in the bubble territory. MarketWatch tends to agree: Stock-market correction imminent.  A great look at some of the indicators through charts and I highly encourage you to take a look. Here are some noteworthy excerpts.

However, we are now at the stage where we these sell signals are beginning to occur — some already have and more probably will, within the next day or two. Does this mean the bigger rally is over, and one should heavily short the market? No, but it does mean that a sharp, but probably short-lived correction is at hand.

Yes, I am seeing the same thing 

In summary, the bullish indicators are running out of gas, and sell signals are beginning to occur. However, the positive seasonality of the Post-Thanksgiving time frame will likely limit the downside.

I do agree with most of the facts presented in the article in question, all except one. While I do agree that December is seasonally net positive, it is not a God given right for the stock market to rally. Major sell-offs have happened in past Decembers and it would be foolish to think that a major correction is impossible here. Certainly not after the rally that we’ve just had.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. December 3rd, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Is Another Big Stock Market Correction Imminent?  Google

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Investment Grin Of The Day

Nobody is ever satisfied. Poor men wish they were rich, rich men wish they were young and handsome, bachelors wish they were married, and married men wish they were dead.

Z30

Investment Grin Of The Day Google

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ADP Disappoints. Another Chernobyl In Ukraine?

chernobyl

A number of important things for you to consider this morning. 

First, despite claims of finally achieving an economic miracle and ever ascending stock market, ADP just had the worst miss since 2010.  There were 208K jobs created Vs. 222K expected. Typically, November is seasonally strong month where we shouldn’t see such big drops. And that begs the question,  are we at full employment or is the US economy on a verge of a massive recession? I think you know the answer to that.

Second, according to various media sources Ukraine nuclear accident (5th largest power plant in the world) ‘no threat’: Minister. This is definitely a story worth following as we might have another Chernobyl on our hands. Despite official claims to the contrary, you can never trust Ukrainian officials.  If you recall, it wasn’t until a massive nuclear cloud reached Finland in 1986 that Soviet officials had to confirm Chernobyl’s accident. A week later. Let’s hope for the best here.

Z31

ADP Disappoints. Another Chernobyl In Ukraine?  Google

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The Shocking Truth Behind Why So Very Few Are Making Money In This Stock Market

daily chart ADecember2 2014

12/2/2014 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 101 points (+0.57%) and the Nasdaq up 28 points (+0.60%). 

Very few people are making money in today’s market. Even though most indices are sitting near their respective all time highs, hedge funds, arguable the smartest money out there, are liquidating at the fastest pace since 2009. Bloomberg: Hedge Funds Shut as Managers Struggle in Year of Two Percent Returns

The question is……why? 

I believe there are two primary reasons. First, there is nothing to invest in. I mean “invest in” and NOT “speculate in”. Everything is extremely expensive and investing at today’s levels would bring unwarranted/massive risk to capital. Hedge fund managers understand that. Second, the FED has distorted financial markets so much that we operate in an environment where the markets never go down. The volatility is gone (as can be clearly seen with the VIX) and the trading rules that more or less worked over the last few decades no longer apply.

So, who is making all the money in this never ending bull market?   

Interestingly enough it is the buy and hold investors who are completely oblivious to where we are today. The very same people who got destroyed in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009. They see today’s valuation levels as acceptable, think we are in the early stages of a secular bull market and believe that every sell-off is a buying opportunity. Mom and pop 401K investors fall into this category by default. And while this strategy has worked over the last few years (thanks to the FED), it is just a matter of time before this strategy/view backfires…….BIG TIME.

Make no mistake, once the market resumes its normal operations, the gains above will very quickly turn into big losses. Just as they did after 2000 and 2007 tops.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. December 2nd, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

The Shocking Truth Behind Why So Very Few Are Making Money In This Stock Market Google