“The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.” – Phillip Fisher
What Economic Warfare Looks Like
Conspiracy theories aside, it shouldn’t be too difficult to figure out what is going on in the oil market. In addition to underlying economic/market factors, the Obama Administration is now in an all out economic war against Russia. With collapsing oil prices being its weapon of choice.
As you can see from the chart above, there is no hint of a bottom or any sort of a reversal (thus far). How low can oil prices go……$50….$40….$30? No one knows and that’s the problem. As recent OPEC meeting showed, no one is willing to cut production. And while the Russian Economy has been on the receiving end of this deliberate Saudi Arabia/US economic attack, the pendulum is about to swing back.
Bloomberg: The American Oil Boom Won’t Last Long at $65 Per Barrel
The problem is, now that the market forces have taken over, it is impossible to say how low the oil will go. Should oil prices stay below $70 per barrel for any prolonged period of time, the US shale producers will be decimated. Along with tens of thousands of high paying US jobs. It is as simple as that. I guess that would constitute another victory for our clueless ruling class. A sad state of affairs.
Apple Loses $42 Billion In 53 Seconds. What Caused It?
12/1/2014 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 49 points (-0.27%) and the Nasdaq down 64 points (-1.34%).
As crazy as it may sound, the Nasdaq hasn’t had a correction of today’s magnitude since hitting its secondary bottom on October 16th. And while most market participates will dismiss today market action as a simple correction in this never ending bull market, perhaps they shouldn’t.
Today’s action in Apple (AAPL) is a perfect illustration of that. While everyone is trying to figure out why Apple (the most liquid and the most “amazing” stock ever) cratered close to 6% in 3 trading minutes…..This is why Apple shares sank earlier: Pros……a different question should be asked.
Can the overall market experience such a flash crash?
If there was ever a time to say “YES“, this is it. Massive overvaluation levels, rampant speculation, no bears, record bullish margin interest, tightening, collapsing yields, undying believe in Santa Claus rally, etc… You get the picture. Maybe not in 5 minutes, but it wouldn’t be unreasonable to find the Dow at October lows by the end of the year. As always, the stock market tends to do what most people believe is unlikely.
In other words, we might get a Grinch rally instead of a Santa Claus rally everyone expects.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. December 1st, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
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Apple Loses $42 Billion In 53 Seconds. What Caused It? Google
How To Become A Millionaire – Investment Grin Of The Day
Stock Market Secret Revealed: Join the FED, stop worrying so much and buy every stock under the sun.
As yields continue to collapse (suggesting a bear market ahead), mainstream financial media continues to view this as a net positive. No matter how outlandish and out of touch their premise is. Stock rally not done because it’s ‘game on’ for the Fed.
To spare you the details of reading the article above, the FED will not raise rates until and unless the job market improves and real wages accelerate higher. Until that happens, this liquidity driven stock market party will continue indefinitely. Perhaps.
Yet, as I have maintained for the last two years, interest rates are likely to collapse into their double bottom not because of the stronger economy, but due to a massive recession or a bear market that we are about to experience. Click Here To Learn More.
Make no mistake, the stock market is in a massive bubble and the bond market is flashing a clear red light. That is to say, whatever you do, just make sure you don’t follow mainstream financial media. Their advice? Just as at 2000 and 2007 tops, …….join the FED, stop worrying so much and buy every stock under the sun.
Worst-case scenario? An asset bubble bursts and the Fed, which has maintained zero rates for a record six years, has no policies left to influence the economy. Though, perhaps it’s best to stop worrying and follow the age-old wisdom that if you can’t beat (the Fed) you might as well join it. At least for now.
A sound strategy until a bear market kicks in and ones portfolio losses 30-50%
Are We Now In The Most Expensive & Speculative Stock Market Ever? The Answer Will Shock You
11/28/2014 – A flat day with the Dow Jones up 0 points (+0.00%) and the Nasdaq up 4 points (+0.09%)
While most people believe we are in the early stages of a secular bull market, I strongly disagree. In fact, if I had to describe today’s stock market in 2 statements and/or charts it would be……..
Grossly Overvalued: By most historic measures. As described two days ago, today’s valuation levels are now above 2007 levels. With only 2000 blow off top being higher. Yet, I would argue that such a view is not entirely accurate either. It does not account for massive amounts of credit that are in our financial system. If this factor is accounted for, I believe it would push today’s market above 2000 valuation levels. Making it the most overvalued market EVER.
Highly Speculative Powder Keg Ready To Explode: As the chart below suggests, everyone is long, fully committed and on margin. With the margin interest being 35% higher than at 2000 and 2007 tops, it is just a matter of time before a typical sell off turns into a massive bear market or worse…..an all out crash.
In Conclusion: Investors and central bankers often complain that it is impossible to spot bubbles and/or anticipate bear markets. If you can’t spot today’s bubble after looking at the charts above, well, I am afraid your head is firmly planted up your **s. Make no mistake, this will end in crocodile tears, just as it did after 2000 and 2007 tops.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. November 28th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
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Are We Now In Most Expensive & Speculative Stock Market Ever? The Answer Will Shock You Google
Happy Black Friday Merica….I Guess (Grin Of The Day)
Warren Buffett: Valuations Are Now At 2000/2007 Blow Off Levels
11/26/2014 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 12 points (+0.07%) and the Nasdaq up 29 points (+0.61%).
Over the last year or so I have been whining that there is nothing to invest in. Not to speculate in, but to invest in over the long-term. That everything is extremely speculative and that most stocks are selling at exuberant valuation levels. It’s nice to see that Warren Buffett’s tends to agree.
If you are serious about investing I highly encourage you to read the article above in full. Here is the bottom line. Today’s valuation metrics are extreme and as the chart above suggests we are now approaching 2000 bubble levels. Not a good sign as we all know what happened thereafter.
Yet, there is one primary difference between today’s valuation levels and the year 2000. The blow off top in 2000 was, more or less, driven by sound underlying economics, credit policies and wild speculation. Today’s valuation levels are driven by the same wild speculative factors plus massive credit infusion and no sound economic principals.
Yes, the corporate earnings are fairly good, but it goes without saying that most of such earnings have been driven by massive credit infusion, QE and buybacks. That is to say, take the FED stimulus away and we might find ourselves in the most expensive/speculative market EVER.
Make no mistake, this is not going to end well.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. November 26th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
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Warren Buffett: Valuations Are Now At 2000/2007 Blow Off Levels Google
Let’s Blame Putin For…Well…Everything (Grin Of The Day)
Putin’s tiger the main suspect in mystery China goat deaths – Xinhua
BEIJING (Reuters) – A Siberian tiger released into the wild by Russian President Vladimir Putin is the main suspect in a series of goat deaths in China’s northeast, state media reported Chinese local authorities as saying on Tuesday.
Siberian tiger experts have pegged Ustin, one of three tigers freed by Putin, as the killer of two goats, the official Xinhua news agency said.
Three goats are still missing.
According to a Xinhua witness, the dead goats’ skulls had been crushed with puncture holes “the size of a human finger clearly visible”.
Ustin crossed into China in October with another of Putin’s tigers, both of which carry tracking devices, Xinhua said, adding a warning from a wildlife protection expert not to throw food at the tiger if spotted.
Let’s Blame Putin For, Well, Everything (Grin Of The Day) Google
Bonds Vs. Stocks…….Who Is Right?
11/25/2014 -A positive day with the Dow Jones up 2 points (+0.01%) and the Nasdaq up 3 points (+0.07%).
Something doesn’t smell right. I am talking about a massive divergence between the stock market and the bond market. The stock market is sitting at an all time high and according to most market pundits, this economic miracle is just getting going.
Yet, the bond market is predicting a massive recession. The yield curve continues to compress and the 10-Year note is once again below 2.3%. This can only mean two things. Either the stock market is right and the yields will snap back (what most people are anticipating) – OR- the stock market is in a massive bubble that is about to blow up. I don’t know about you, but my money is on the bond market.
Plus…. consider the following.
- The stock market is incredibly overpriced. By most valuation metrics. With some valuations pushing 2007 and 2000 (nasdaq) tops.
- The 5 year bull market cycle is now over.
- We are still in a 17 year secular bear market that started in 2000. The last 2-3 years are always down.
- There are no bears left. Everyone has capitulated.
- Bulls see every 5-10% correction as a buying opportunity of a lifetime.
- The FED is tightening and any remaining QE velocity is collapsing.
- Massive divergences. Particularly with the bond market.
- Smart investors like Icahn, Soros, Faber, Rogers are shorting this market.
- Etc….I can list another 20 points, but you get the idea.
Still think the Dow is going much higher in 2015? Yeah……good luck with that.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. November 25th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!