Category: Stock Market

Continuation from yesterday…….(What Will Happen To Netflix When A Bear Market Starts)

Justifiably, some will argue that constant trading in and out of your position can increase capital gains taxes and therefore reduce returns. Let’s take a quick look at the numbers based on the Netflix’s trading pattern above to settle the matter once and for all.  First, we have to make the following assumptions.

• You fall into the 25-35% tax bracket and your long-term capital gains tax is 15%.
• Your average ordinary income tax is 30%.
• We liquidated our position as of today at $460. Giving us a net realized total return of 1,740% for “Buy and Hold” and 10,817% for “BLSH”.
• Original investment of $100,000

If we run the scenario above our total after tax return on investment for the “Buy and Hold” investment strategy will yield a return of $1,479,000 or 1,479%.

For the “Buy Low, Sell High, Go Short & Cover” investment strategy and based on the trades above, an after tax return on investment will be equal to $6,977,321 or 6,877%. If you are counting, that is still more than 4.5 times higher than a simple buy and hold approach used by most investors out there.

Finally, there is yet another hidden benefit to our newly discovered investment strategy. Investors who follow the “Buy Low, Sell High, Go Short & Cover” strategy should be able to avoid company or industry specific risks associated with investing in certain companies.

One of the most common mistakes all investors commit when making long-term investment decisions is relying too heavily on the fundamental analysis. And while fundamental analysis is great, it is fairly useless when it comes to identifying proper entry and exit points. In fact, in 99% of the time the underlying stock price will either surge or collapse by the time important fundamental factors flow though the company’s financial statements or press releases.

Remember, the stock market is a future discounting mechanism.  That means the stock price is likely to reflect all changes before they become evident on the fundamental level. For instance, earlier in the book we have looked at the Nasdaq’s trading pattern over the last 20 years.  And we don’t have to go further than 2007 top and 2009 bottom to illustrate this principal in action. At 2007 top most market participants were incredibly bullish. The US economy was doing great, fundamentals looked good and the FED Chairman Bernanke was concerned about the economy overheating as late as second quarter of 2008.

Yet, the stock market topped out on October 11th, 2007 and accelerated down. By the time fundamentals caught up to the stock market in 3rd and 4th quarter of 2008, about 75% of the entire decline was complete.  The situation was entirely reversed at 2009 bottom. If you recall, most media and financial outlets were calling for the next “Great Depression” and the sky couldn’t be darker.  Luckily, the stock market bottomed on March 6th, 2009 before staging a massive 5.5 year rally.  And again, it took the fundamentals about two years to catch up with all of the positive developments.

Point being, once again, by the time underlying fundamentals filter though, it is oftentimes too late to either get in or get out.  The same line of thinking applies to all individual stocks. When we apply “Buy Low, Sell High, Go Short & Cover” investment strategy we gain the ability to avoid the risk of being caught on the wrong side of the trade. It allows us to eliminate the risk of waiting to see what happens from the fundamental perspective. It allows us to avoid losses most often associated with unforeseen consequences associated with investing.  Most importantly, it puts us in the position of power.

For instance, Netflix’s 2011-2012 collapse gives us a perfect illustration of the subject matter. Outside of its general overvaluation there were no fundamental reasons for Netflix to go through a 75% correction during that time. Certainly not in 4 months. Yet, the stock price topped out in July of 2011 and quickly collapsed.  Followers of “Buy Low, Sell High, Go Short & Cover” wouldn’t care why the stock price was collapsing. They would have exited the stock and gone short as soon as the technical confirmation was obtained.

Subsequently, investors would find themselves at the bottom of the trading range were all of Netflix’s “Fundamental Bad News” would have come out. And while it would be too late for traditional investors who would be sitting on top of massive losses, followers of BLSH would find themselves in a position of power. Trying to decide whether the fundamental news are indeed bad or if the fears are being overblown and the stock price is likely to bounce. Allowing them to re-enter the position right at the bottom or as soon as the stock begins to break out.

In other words, Buy Low, Sell High, Go Short and Cover allows investors to minimize risks most commonly associated with relying too heavily on fundamental analysis.

To Be Continued Tomorrow……..

Why Warren Buffett Is Wrong About Trading In and Out Google

Continuation from yesterday……(Trading Netflix Using BLSH)

Netflix’s stock price broke above its higher high and down slopping trend line in January of 2012, suggesting that the decline was now over. As a result, our short position should have been covered at approximately $75 a share in January of 2012 or as soon as this confirmation was obtained.

Trade #3: Cover your short position at $75 and go long at the same time/price. Trade net realized gain $160 or 68%. Net realized gain up to date $395 or 1,480%.

Before surging higher in 2012 the stock re-tested its lows in the mid and late 2012. Setting in a lower low in the process. Investors should have been very careful at this juncture.  A consideration should have been given to the fact that the decline was not over and that we might have gotten back into the stock a little too early.  Luckily, the stock never broke below its critical support levels before rebounding and initiating its come back rally.

That brings us to today. As of September 2014, Netflix’s stock price trades in the $425-475 range. Yet, a bear market is brewing on the horizon. The overall stock market is selling at unsustainable valuation levels and Netflix’s stock is, once again, pushing into a bubble territory. In other words, the stock market is possibly sitting on a verge of a massive sell off and the Netflix might lead it down.  As a result, investors in the stock should be watching the situation very carefully. Ready to liquidate their net long position and to go short as soon as some sort of a confirmation is obtained.

Proposed Trade #4:  Liquidate your long position at $430 and go short at the same price/time. Net realized gain $355 or 473%. Net realized gain up to date $745 or 2,900%.

Compare this return to the Buy & Hold strategy ROI of 1,800% and you begin to realize just how powerful this approach is.  And that is before an upcoming bear market leg develops. If Netflix’s stock price declines just 30% in a bear market, the Buy & Hold strategy ROI will slide to 1,200%. That is while Buy Low, Sell High, Go Short & Cover investment strategy ROI will zoom up to 3,480%. Proving, once again, the validity of the strategy.

Justifiably, some will argue that constant trading in and out of your position can increase capital gains taxes and therefore reduce returns. Let’s take a quick look at the numbers based on the Netflix’s trading pattern above to settle the matter once and for all.  First, we have to make the following assumptions.

• You fall into the 25-35% tax bracket and your long-term capital gains tax is 15%.
• Your average ordinary income tax is 30%.
• We liquidated our position as of today at $460. Giving us a net realized total return of 1,740% for “Buy and Hold” and 3,020% for “BLSH”.
• Original investment of $100,000

To Be Continued Tomorrow…….

What Will Happen To Netflix When A Bear Market Starts Google

Continuation from yesterday…….(The Future Of Nasdaq)

Trade #6 (Anticipated): Exit your long position at 4,300 and go short. Anticipated move gain 2,950 points. Anticipated net realized gain up to date 12,780 or 1,675%.

To quickly summarize, our three investment strategies yielded the following returns between November of 1994 and September of 2014.

• Buy & Hold: 525%
• Most Likely Outcome (Average): 425%
• Buy Low, Sell High, Go Short & Cover: 1,675%

What’s more, by the time a bear market of 2014-2017 completes itself, the first two investment strategies should see their ROI slashed to approximately 300% while the Buy Low, Sell High, Go Short & Cover investment strategy should see its return zoom up to approximately 1,900%. A return on investment that is more than six times higher when compared to what others were able to achieve.  Finally putting to rest the question of what general investment strategy is the best.

Is it really possible to achieve this 16% annualized rate of return without taking on any additional risk?

What most people don’t realize about the proposed investment strategy is that it minimizes risk, not increases it. Think about it in the following fashion. What was more risky, remaining fully invested on the Nasdaq at 2000 and 2007 tops or going short when the tops were confirmed?

Contrary to a popular believe it was exponentially more risky to remain net long at both tops for the following reasons. First, the markets were extremely overvalued and speculative at the time, assuring that any future gains would be miniscule.  Second, the risks associated of major declines and even crashes were too great at both tops.  Finally, the Nasdaq’s cyclical composition clearly showed that dangerous sell offs were just ahead.   Just as it does today.

The best part about Buy Low, Sell High, Go Short & Cover is that this investment strategy works on all time frames and on most commonly used financial instruments. For instance, while the Nasdaq example above uses long-term market developments, the same strategy can be applied to daily trading of any individual stock. For as long as the trader knows exactly where they are in the cyclical composition of the underlying security.

How is this different from Long/Short investment strategy?

If you are not familiar, Long/Short investment strategy is most commonly associated with hedge funds and other professional investors who play on both sides of the market. It involves buying long equities that are expected to increase in value and selling short equities that are expected to decrease in value.  And while it might appear similar to Buy Low, Sell High, Go Short & Cover, it is anything but.  Here is why.

To Be Continued Tomorrow………

What You Ought To Know About Buy Low, Sell High, Go Short & Cover Google