Where Are We…..1929 Top Or 2016 Bottom?
1/8/2019 – Another positive day with the Dow Jones up 256 points (+1.09%) and the Nasdaq up 73 points (+1.08%)
Having fun yet? As we have been saying, the stock market remains at an incredibly important juncture. Things are about to accelerate in an unexpected way. If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our timing and mathematical work, in both price and time, please Click Here.
Bullish investors, the same bullish investors who were gripped by panic just two short weeks ago, continue to maintain that today’s market represents THE “Buying Opportunity Of A Lifetime”.
Why bulls say the stock market could echo its 2016 rebound
Bears, however, contend that the backdrop is significantly different this time around. For the bulls, there are compelling parallels between the current dynamic and that late 2015-early 2016 backdrop.
“If you think what was plaguing the market at that time, you had a strong dollar that was choking off not only U.S. earnings but also the global economy. Oil was plunging…You had a Fed that was ending quantitative easing and they were projected to do four rate hikes in 2016. and then lastly you had very weak Chinese economic data,” said Jeffrey Schulze, investment strategist at ClearBridge Investments, which manages $148 billion.
Bears have an entirely different point of view. As we have outlined on this site on numerous occasions bearish investors believe we are in a giant Ponzi Finance bubble and that a re-test of 2009 lows is just around the corner.
Who is right?
No one. According to our mathematical and timing work both bulls and bears will be greatly disappointed over the next few years. Extremely frustrated – YES, right – absolutely NOT.
Luckily, you don’t have to climb walls or pull your hair out over the next few years. If you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our mathematical and timing work, please Click Here
Please Note: Our latest call was a direct hit. While everyone was panicking our work projected an important bottom on December 27th (+/- 1 trading day) on the Dow at 21,725 (+/- 50 points). An actual bottom was put in place on December 26th at 21,713.
Peter Schiff Explains Why The US Economy Is In A Massive Bubble
Investment Grin Of The Day
Bullish Dreams And Why This Massive Market Is Not Buying FED’s BS
1/7/2019 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 98 points (+0.42%) and the Nasdaq up 84 points (+1.26%)
Having fun yet? As we have been saying, the stock market remains at an incredibly important juncture. Things are about to accelerate in an unexpected way. If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our timing and mathematical work, in both price and time, please Click Here.
The Dow is up 1,600+ points since our clearly identified bottom at our December 27th (+/- 1 trading day) TIME turning point. Some investor sentiment is arguably up infinitely more. So much so that some investors believe the bottom is in and that a massive rally is a sure thing.
S&P 500 will climb 15% in 2019 — here’s what to buy now
For anyone who owns stocks, the holiday season was pretty grim. But that’s behind us, and now it’s time to deploy the rest of any buying power you may have. Or put on a little margin if that’s the only way to increase exposure to stocks at this point.
The reason: The bottom is in, and 2019 will bring a 15% rally in the S&P 500 — or better. How do we “know” the bottom is in? Of course, no one can know this for sure. But that’s what the weight of the evidence suggests. Here are five reasons why.
Well then, I sure hope these guys are loading up on call options.
It can be argued, at least fundamentally speaking, that last week’s rally was caused by Jerome Powell crumbling under Trump’s pressure and appearing more “Dovish”.
Here is why that might not be the case.
Powell Goes Dovish… But It’s Too Late to Change Anything
Stocks roared higher last week when Fed Chair Jerome Powell did a complete 180 and proclaimed some of the most dovish statements in Fed chair history.
Not only did Powell suddenly claim he was “listening to the markets,” meaning he was worried about the drop in stock prices, but he also suggested the Fed is completely open to changing the pace of its rate hikes and balance sheet normalization.
To be clear: Powell has finally realized that Fed policy was blowing up the financial markets.
Unfortunately for him, it’s too late. And while the DUMB money is buying into the stock rally, the smartest, most liquid market in the world isn’t buying it for a second.
I’m talking about the currency markets.
In other words, it is probably not a good idea to assume with 100% certainty that any sort of a tradable bottom is in.
Luckily, you don’t have to guess. If you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here
David Stockman Warns: Forget About Recession, Depression Is Straight Ahead
Investment Grin Of The Day
Why Investors Should Be Horrified By Today’s Jobs Report, Not Celebrating It
A positive week with the Dow Jones up 371 points (+1.60%) and the Nasdaq up 154 points (+2.33%)
Having fun yet? As we have been saying, the stock market remains at an incredibly important juncture. Things are about to accelerate in an unexpected way. If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our timing and mathematical work, in both price and time, please Click Here.
Investors were sent into a buying frenzy, with the Dow gaining 746 points, partially by a blow out jobs report. Powell “bending over” was the secondary driver, but let’s save that one for another time.
Payrolls Expand by Whopping 312,000 as Unemployment Rate Rises to 3.9%
Seasonally adjusted household survey data have been revised using updated seasonal |adjustment factors, a procedure done at the end of each calendar year. Seasonally |adjusted estimates back to January 2014 were subject to revision.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised up from +155,000 to +176,000, and the change for October was revised up from +237,000 to +274,000. With these revisions, employment gains in October and November combined were 58,000 more than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged 254,000 per month over the last 3 months.
In other words, good news is good news again.
Yet, our view is just the opposite. Investors should be horrified of these numbers, not celebrating them. And it has nothing to do with the FED and their interest rate hiking campaign.
Jobs numbers are a lagging indicator, not leading. A quick glance at the history books would reveal a horrifying trend. Record low unemployment and major stock market tops tend to go hand in hand.
Let’s take a look at two charts…..
In other words, when unemployment is at record low levels investors should be preparing for a major move down in the stock market, not celebrating hope and unicorns. The 2000 and 2007 tops are just recent examples. You can go back to 1972 or 1966 or 1929 or 1907 or even 1835 (to name just a few) and get the same reading.
Luckily, you don’t have to be a fool making your investment decisions based on jobs data. If you would like to find exactly what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here.
