Your Guide To Shorting Social Media – Investment Grin Of The Day Google
Shocking: The Real Story Behind Apple’s (AAPL) Decline
Most investors, market pundits and money managers are dumbfounded by Apple’s (AAPL) recent decline. After all, it was not supposed to happen. Apple is the best performing company in the world (which is technically true) with like a zillion dollars in cash on their balance sheet.
And while Apple will surely bounce here short-term, it is not looking good long-term. Here is what we said about Apple on May 21st. Just a few trading hours before an important top was set. I still stand by that analysis.
May 21st Update: Alert: Smart Money Is Trying To Distribute Apple (AAPL) To Fools
I firmly believe that the overall market and Apple (AAPL) will crack at the same time. Hence, overwhelmingly bullish coverage of the company and recent analyst upgrades should cause some concern. For instance…..
- CARL ICAHN: Apple is worth $240 per share
- Morgan Stanley says Apple shares could rise 50%
- Here’s the top stock pick from each of 50 biggest hedge funds – Quite a few of these hedge funds have a massive long Apple position.
There is another name for all of the above. Distribution. The smart money is trying to unload their massive positions to unsuspecting retail investors in an illiquid market. A game that is as old as the stock market itself.
Listen, I don’t have anything against Apple. It is one of the best performing companies out there. Yes, it is overvalued, but its valuation is not as bad as some of the junk floating in the market today.
I am merely pointing out that retail investors shouldn’t be sucked into a game that they cannot win. Make no mistake, once Icahn, Morgan Stanley and the rest of the big guys unload their long positions (if they are smart), Apple’s stock will fall like a brick. Just as the market will. That is to say, the opportunity with AAPL might be on the short side of the trade, not the long.
Shocking: The Real Story Behind Apple’s (AAPL) Decline Google
Just How Much Risk Can The Market Bear Before Breaking Down?
8/4/2015 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 48 points (-0.28%) and the Nasdaq down 10 points (-0.20%).
The market continues to trade within a tight trading range. Putting most traders/investors to sleep. With that said, I continue to maintain the view expressed here Is Our Historically Boring Market About To Get Exciting? You Bet. To quickly summarize, most markets continue to accumulate energy for a big move ahead.
AKA, don’t be caught with your pants down or asleep.
In terms of how much risk is out there, consider the following…..
- Shiller’s S&P P/E ratio is at 27. The third highest in the history of the stock market. Only 1929 and 2000 tops where more expensive (not by much). We all know what happened thereafter.
- Today, Americans have 41 percent of their financial assets in stocks, matching the high in 2007 and trailing only the Internet bubble.
- Americans already own a lot more stocks than they usually do. At 57 percent, the current holdings relative to bonds and cash are far from their peak at 66 percent in 2000, but they’re approaching levels that have coincided with market peaks in the past. The low was hit in 1982 at 27 percent.
- America’s 95 million investors are at huge risk. Remember the $10 trillion losses in the crash and recession of 2007-2009? The $8 trillion lost after the dot-com technology crash and recession of 2000-2003? This is the third big recession of the century. Yes, America will lose trillions again.
- With interest rates at zero, the FED will be powerless to backstop the next bear market leg. Even the next round of QE can backfire in a major way. Depending on how the bond market reacts.
I am not sure how most people view this, but for me, the points above represent a tremendous amount of risk in today’s financial system. A risk that is currently not being properly priced in.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. August 4th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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Why You Might Want To Rethink The Dow 20K
Bill Fleckenstein is right on the money. I would have to agree with 100% of what he says. Particularly, the FED. Bill shares my view in terms of the fact that the FED has now lost the ability to control or prevent any sort of a decline/collapse. If you participate in financial markets and value your money, the video below is a must watch.
Investment Grin Of The Day
How To Make A Zillion In The Next Car Revolution
Self-driving cars are expected to change the way we live, work and interact with each other. So much so that some expect this change to be in full swing by 2025. While I have my doubts, it is an important trend to follow if you are an investor.
For instance, this trend has the ability to decimate the tracking industry while other multi-billion dollar companies will seemingly appear out of nowhere. Let’s take a look at some of the other probable outcomes.
- Mind-boggling cost of overhauling our entire road system, traffic management and signposting. Or insurance regulations. Or driving tests. Or road tax. Or liability issues. Someone will make or lose a lot of money here.
- Road death is the eighth leading cause of death on the planet, with between 90% and 95% of car accidents the fault of human error. The economic cost of road accidents is estimated to be around $277bn in 2013.
- City design will change enormously, even just in the short term. With great swathes of city real estate covered in car parks, self parking cars can cut down on that dramatically.
- Fuel savings will be immense. Autonomous cars drive consistently and economically, without man’s strange insistence of moving one, righteous, car up the queue by overtaking, and aggressively lane-changing.
- Morgan Stanley projected autonomous cars could save the US $170bn in lower fuel costs, and another $138bn in congestion avoidance. And that’s just fossil fuels. Which could also be a thing of the past.
- Another option to charge your car is wireless induction charging – a primary coil is ferreted away in your garage floor, a secondary coil is incorporated into the floor of the car, and an alternating magnetic field charges the battery.
- Personal insurance will mostly likely become defunct, because as the car takes responsibility for safety, liability will shift to the manufacturers themselves, with the ABI – the Association of British Insurers telling Factor: “The key change – and the potential shift to product liability – comes when the driver is not expected to oversee or monitor the vehicle and when they have ceded full driving responsibility to the car itself.
- ‘Sleeper cars’ will become available for long journeys where you’ll simply set off at night, tuck yourself into the incorporated bed, with blacked-out windows if there are windows at all, and wake up right outside your destination, be it Land’s End to John O’Groats, or a cross-Europe trip.
- Freight will be completely automated, putting every single lorry driver out of work. Deliveries will be automated, using the highways at night when there’s no congestion and economies of scale can be greater, without pesky regulations forcing weak-bodied professional drivers to take breaks.
- Rather than own a vehicle, you’ll most likely whip out your smartphone and call an automated car, just like we would an Uber taxi today. Prod your destination into the app and off you’ll go, automatically billed at the end.
And that’s just to name a few possibilities. How all of this will shake out and how long it will take is anyone’s guess. If the human race doesn’t manage to destroy itself over the next 20 years, as per my other forecast, this change has the capability of delivering massive gains to enterprising investors. Definitely put it on your “watch list”.
Bull Of The Year Award Goes To…..
8/3/2015 – Another down day with the Dow Jones down 91 points (-0.51%) and the Nasdaq down 13 points (0.25%).
…..this guy. I often concentrate on the bearish side of the story. Not because I am some sort of a doom and gloom permabear, but because my timing and mathematical work shows that we are in for quite a beating.
And whatever your stance might be, this guy takes it to a whole new level. Shortage of assets? I am literally speechless. He is more confident in the market’s ability to surge higher than I am in my ability to wake up tomorrow morning. I wonder if he will still have a job if the market craters 20-30% from today’s levels. It will be fun to re-visit this video when that happens.
Watch and decide for yourself. At least for now I am sticking with my overall bearish call.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. August 3rd, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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San Francisco: The Most Insane City In America?
And not in a good “Genius” kind of way. For two reasons. Real estate prices and tech valuations.
San Francisco Real Estate:
Our friends and DHB had an excellent analysis on the subject matter here The Insanity that is San Francisco Real Estate: Median home price is 34% higher than previous peak bubble price and stands at $1,360,000.
San Francisco real estate is operating in a bubble only understood by venture capitalist running start-ups with no net operating income yet generating millions in funding phases. Sell the sizzle and not the steak. The gold tech rush is in full swing. San Francisco real estate makes Southern California housing look like a timid and shy teenager in comparison.
This is sheer insanity. There is no other way to describe it. Normal people, those who have not just sold their “idea” startup for a billion dollars, will be taken to the cleaners if they buy at today’s prices. It is as simple as that.
Now, back to today’s Tech valuations Uber valued at nearly $51B after funding:
Mark Cuban is dead on in identifying Silicon Valley’s Tech Bubble 2.0: Why This Tech Bubble is Worse Than the Tech Bubble of 2000. At the end of the day, Silicon Valley has about as mush liquidity as California’s dried up reservoirs. Something that Angel investors, venture capitalists and stock option millionaires are about to find out.
How big is this bubble? Consider the following. Uber’s valuation went from $60 Million in 2011 to $51 Billion today(not a typo). They must be making a ton of money…..right?WRONG. Bloomberg estimates that Uber showed $470 million in operating losses with $415 million in revenue last year. Plus, the company was set a major legal blow in California by requiring their drivers to be classified as employees. And as far as I am concerned, it is just a matter of time before other states and countries regulate Uber out of business to protect taxi drivers.
In other words, the valuation above is not only outrageous, it is, how should I put it, retardedly outrageous.
Back to Mark Cuban. It is now evident that most market pundits out there are dismissing Mark’s view. And while Mark talks about Angel Investors and illiquidity in that market, his analysis can just as easily be applied to today’s stock market. More about that in a second.
First, here is what most people don’t realize about Mark Cuban. After selling his first business Mark became a heck of a trader and investor in the 1990’s. His returns were so good at the time that Goldman Sachs tried to bring him in order to figure out what he was doing. This same ability helped him unload Broadcast.com for $5.7 Billion to Yahoo right at the top of the tech bubble. Here is what he thinks.
I have absolutely not doubt in my mind that most of these individual Angels and crowd funders are currently under water in their investments. Absolutely none. I say most. The percentage could be higher. Why? Because there is ZERO liquidity for any of those investments. None. Zero. Zip.
So why is this bubble far worse than the tech bubble of 2000 ?
Because the only thing worse than a market with collapsing valuations is a market with no valuations and no liquidity. If stock in a company is worth what somebody will pay for it, what is the stock of a company worth when there is no place to sell it ?
We often talk about the stock market, but we rarely look at this side of the equation. Mark is absolutely right. If you are an Angel Investors, good luck getting your money out. Especially when today’s Silicon Valley’s bubble bursts. Plus, the chances of hitting a good exit in tech are about as good as winning a lottery.
What’s more, the bubble Mark Cuban has identified in the tech industry is the same bubble I see in the stock market. The drivers behind both are the same. The only difference is the amount of liquidity available.
Investment Grin Of The Day
My Outrageous Mistake: How We Missed Monday’s Bottom By 1 Point On The Dow
7/31/2015 – A negative day with Dow Jones down 55 points (-0.31%) and the Nasdaq down 1 point (-0.01%)
Instead of complaining about today’s valuation levels, allow me to illustrate to you just how accurate our timing and mathematical work can be. Not always, but often enough. If you would like to find out what the market will do next, please Click Here.
Long story short, in my weekly update to my subscribers I have suggested that the market was about to bottom on July 28th (+/- 1 trading day) and then bounce. Prior to Monday’s opening I have indicated that we were about to put in a bottom at the open and then reverse (see below). At 17,425 (+/- 25 points).
We did just that 15 minutes into trading. I personally reversed my short position into a long position just 20 Dow points shy of the actual bottom at 17,399 ( in the final analysis our forecast missed by 1 point – outside of our range). Again, if you would like to find out what the market will do next, please Click Here.
MONDAY, JULY 27TH, 2015 – INTRADAY UPDATES.
(XXXX – Information not available in a free public forum).
PRE-MARKET: An incredibly important update to layer on top of our weekly update. I have spent the weekend re-calculating everything. Here are my findings.
- My original elliptical termination date of XXXX is still valid or just as valid as our XXXX date. We are dealing with a margin of error there. Meaning, once we bounce of off proposed bottom here, we should ………XXXX.
- My July 28th (+/- 1 trading day) TIME turning point is likely to arrive TODAY. In fact, I will put the probability of that happening at 75%.
- My extremely short-term work (which is more prone to error) suggests that we will see a short-term bottom here about 3 hours into trading or about 12:30 PM EST.
WHERE? My primary candidate right now or the best mathematical point is located at 17,425 (+/- 25 points). It is a strong, but a dirty point. Meaning, it can literally be anywhere within that range.
Elliptical support is at around 17,250 today. So, if you reverse into a long position, as I personally plan to do, you risk or opportunity cost should be around 200 Dow points. My advice, in terms of long-term or short-term investors remains intact here. ………. XXXX…………..., then………
My plan: I will attempt to reverse into a long position for this proposed bounce into…. XXXX. I will be running short-term calculations extensively throughout the day, in an attempt to identify the exact bottom, and I will let you know exactly when and where I am pulling the trigger.
Stay tuned. I should be commenting extensively today.
Finally, I will simply reverse from 100% short to 100% long DIA. Plus, get some call options with the profit I have just generated (very small allocation – as described in our weekly update). I will allocate 20% such profit to the “in the money November 2015 DIA call options”. If this doesn’t make sense, see weekly update TRADING section.
****CRITICAL – PRE-MARKET 2: It appears we might open right into our target of 17,425. My thinking is, the market will bounce and then come back to test this level again to slightly lower about 2.5-3 hours into trading. With that said, if we slam right into 17,425 or lower at the open, I will execute the trade above. In case the market decides to start its bounce right thereafter. I will do that as soon as a down move stops and the market begins to bounce. I will not pull the trigger for as long as the market sells-off. Even if it goes below 17,400. Stay tuned.
9:45 AM EST: I executed all of my buy/sell orders when we hit 17,425 and DIA equivalent. I am now 100% long + some call options. I will outline all trades in our daily update.
10:15 AM EST Thus far, we have tested price support. However, my short-term TIME cycle has not arrived yet. It will in about 1.5-2 hours. That suggests we might re-test the lows at that point. That might be the last opportunity (if it arrives) to trade right at the proposed bottom if you haven’t. However, as indicated below….I have already reversed.
11:45 AM EST: My short term TIME turning point arrives over the next 60 minutes. It would be a good place to set in a small double bottom. At the same time, we don’t have to. The bottom can already be in as of this morning. If all of the above and below is true, this might be the last opportunity to reverse and/or go long.
July 27th, 2015: 1:50 PM EST: Considering market action thus far, I have a secondary short-term TIME turning point arriving in the first 60 minutes of trading tomorrow. It is likely we will stay at suppressed levels until then. A double bottom at around 17,399 is likely. Then, our proposed bounce should start.
I think the forecast/trading above and subsequent market action speaks for itself. Just pull up the Dow chart and compare. Also, the Nasdaq bottomed 50 minutes into its trading section the following day. Just as indicated in our 1:50 PM update.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 31st, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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My Outrageous Mistake: How We Missed Monday’s Bottom By 1 Point On The Dow Google