Investment Wisdom Of The Day Google
Is Our Historically Boring Market About To Get Exciting? You Bet
As the NYSE chart above illustrates, most of the primary US Indices have been compressing for more than a year. Some more than others. This is one of the reasons some people are calling today’s stock market boring.
It is not boring, it is accumulating energy prior to a massive move. Higher or lower. To be exact, the stock market is doing the following two things…..
- It is doing its job by fooling 99% of investors out there. It is putting most traders and investors to sleep prior to a large move initiation. As of today, very few people believe that the Dow can exhibit a sustained 1,000 point move, let alone a rapid 5,000 point move. Yet, that is exactly what the market is getting ready to do. As always, most investors will be caught with their pants down.
- The market is accumulating energy for a large move ahead. Up or down. The process is very similar to winding up a powerful spring. It appears to be stable and controlled, that is, until the spring snaps and a massive amount of energy is released in a rather rapid fashion. Exactly the same thing is about to happen in our capital markets.
Luckily, my mathematical work allows me to know when this period of low volatility ends. To the day and to the point. If you would like to find out when that is, please Click Here.
Is Our Historically Boring Market About To Get Exciting? You Bet Google
Are We In A Stealth Bear Market Already?
7/30/2015 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 5 points (-0.02%) and the Nasdaq up 17 points (+0.33%)
The stock market continues to behave as per our internal forecasts (subscriber section). If you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here.
Are we about to surge higher or take a massive beating? Let’s take a look at both sides.
Bearish Case:
- We might already be in a bear market
- It’s time I reminded you how expensive stocks are — a 50% plunge would not be a surprise
It’s nothing that we haven’t talked about on this blog before. Think about it in the following fashion. The NYSE (largest index by capitalization) is already down 3-4% from its trading range initiation 13 months ago. The Dow set an important top on March 2nd, only to set in a double top on May 19th. The Dow Transports are flashing a major bearish reversal sign.
All of the above suggests that the market has been distributing for close to a year and once this distribution period ends, a new bear market leg will kick in. In fact, considering where the indices are today, it might have already started.
Bullish Case:
The primary argument on the bullish side is as follows.
- The market has been consolidating after a big 5.5 year run up: It is resting before the next leg up — Fair enough. I will give them this one. That is technically possible.
- The market is not too expensive: I am seeing this over and over again. This time is different, this sector, that sector, accounting, statistics, etc…. People try to twist their numbers in a million different ways to justify today’s valuations. At the end of the day it is rather simple. Shiller’s S&P P/E is at 27, the third highest level in history (behind 1929 and 2000). It is never different…..case closed
- We are in a secular bull market that has another 10 years to go. Wrong. If you study history you will see that bull/bear markets alternate in clearly defined 17-18 year cycles. The 2009 bottom was a mid cycle bottom, not a terminal point of 2000-2017 bear market. Meaning, we still in a secular bear market that will only complete in 2017-18. You can learn more about it here Market Cycles
Who is right?
I will let you come to your own conclusion. From my vantage point, the market has been in distribution for over a year now.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 30th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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Mark Zuckerberg Begs For More Time At P/E Ratio Of 95
I am getting tired of going after Facebook (FB), but I continue to maintain that Facebook is one of the best longer-term short opportunities in the market. I have outlined it here. Why Short Sellers Should Drool All Over Facebook
Zuckerberg to Wall Street: Be Patient, Big Things Take Time
“What we decided was that over the long term, the ads and monetization would perform better if there was an organic interaction between people using the product and businesses,” Zuckerberg said.
I had a good chuckle over that one. I guess Facebook deserves more time, but not when their P/E is at 95 or when their market cap is higher than GE’s. At that price they are nothing more than an incredibly overpriced pure speculation.
The primary thing investors must understand here is that Facebook is already feeding them promises. Maybe Instagram will reach 6 Billion users, maybe Oculus will change the way we live, maybe Facebook will grow at 20% per annum over the next 20-30 years in order to justify their current valuation. Or, maybe it will go the way of MySpace.
Point being, don’t buy the hype if you value your money. Instead, consider profiting on the short side.
Mark Zuckerberg Begs For More Time At P/E Ratio Of 95 Google
Investment Wisdom Of The Day
Bill Gross Compares Global Financial Markets To A Giant Ponzi Scheme
It’s a breath of fresh air when a big money manager speaks the truth instead of perpetuating “Now is a buying opportunity of a lifetime” line of thinking. Bill Gross delivers again.
The global financial markets are a “shell game” thanks to government interventions like quantitative easing, and once the manipulation stops, the markets may drop, bond legend Bill Gross said Wednesday.
The only problem with the above is “may drop”. “Will drop” would be a much more accurate statement. Watch the video below, it is worth 3 minutes of your time.
Bill Gross Compares Global Financial Markets To A Giant Ponzi Scheme Google
The FED: Now Powerless, Awaiting Hard Impact
7/29/2015 – Another positive day with the Dow Jones up 121 points (+0.69%) and the Nasdaq up 22 points (+0.44%).
As predicted here yesterday, Janet Yellen and the FED continue to beat around the bush. Here is my take on all of this. They are either really…really stupid -OR- they understand exactly where we are and literally feel paralyzed.
Further, from what I can tell, no one out there shares my view. A view I deem to be very accurate from a sheer stand point of what my mathematical and timing work shows happening in our capital markets over the next 24 months.
Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words. The picture below is, more or less, exactly where the FED finds itself today. The plane is on fire, there is no hope, impact is imminent and it is just a matter of time.
That is to say, it is too late, they have missed the boat on raising interest rates. Let me give you a hypothetical example. What do you think will happen if the stock market crashes 25-30% between now and November, bringing the US Economy to screeching halt……in the very same fashion it did in 2008?
And if you believe that is impossible, you shouldn’t be investing in capital markets. Period.
Well, the FED will find itself in an impossible situation. There is very little they will be able to do in order to backstop the market and/or prevent a severe recession. Remember, the interest rates are still at zero. Another round of QE? Most certainly, but there is no reason to believe that the bond market won’t throw a fit this time around. In other words, checkmate and game over for the Fed!!!
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 29th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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Why Short Sellers Should Drool All Over Facebook
When Twitter (TWTR) was selling at $48, I wrote this….Why Twitter (TWTR) Should Go On Your “Stocks To Short” List Less than 6 months later it is trading 35% lower. With that in mind, I continue to maintain that the worst is yet to come for the company. By the time upcoming bear market ends, Twitter should be below $10.
Now, here is why short sellers should drool all over Facebook.
And while I might eat crow for dinner tonight, this view is a longer-term one. Even if Facebook (FB) reports great earnings and jumps higher later on today, I continue to believe that Facebook is one of the best shorts out there. That is to say, if a jump does occur, use it as an opportunity to load up on the short side. That is, after upward pressure, if any, dissipates and the stock reverses.
While most investors today will laugh at me when I suggest that Facebook (FB) will see $20 a share over the next 3 years, I will laugh back when it does. I promise. Here is why……
- As discussed over the last few days, Facebook is massively overpriced. At its $275 Billion market cap, the company is now worth more than GE. At 10th the revenue base and a P/E of 95. I guarantee you, investors in Facebook today will look back in 2-3 years and wonder “What the hell were we thinking”.
- I am beginning to notice quite a bit of fraudulent activity on Facebook when it comes to likes, promotions, paid advertising, etc… That is firsthand knowledge, but you can Google the same and do your own research. That suggests the Facebook is running out of growth and its multiple is not justified. By a long shot.
- See those massive gaps all the way down to $20 a share? Yep, they will have to be closed at some point.
- We are on a verge of a multi-year substantial bear market. Click Here. When such bear markets develop, if past is any history, such overvalued and over hyped stocks tend to lose 80-90% of their value. Just as the gaps above suggest. I don’t know why this time would be any different.
- Short interest is low.
Finally, even at $20 a share, Facebook will be extremely overpriced. In other words, I just gave you a 80% gainer, but its up to you what you do with it. As always, TIMING is the key here.
Investment Wisdom Of The Day
Cold War Accelerates As Ruble Plunges
As I have mentioned before, forget everything else. This is the most important issue and it will impact all of us. A quick update on the subject matter.
- The Russian Bear is Back, Just Itching to Start a New Cold War – Fools. The war has already started 2 years ago with the coup in Ukraine. Plus, Russia will never forget or forgive economic warfare currently being waged. This will only deteriorate further. Particularly, if Hillary Clinton wins the Presidency.
- NATO eastward expansion would be ‘catastrophic’: Russian official – As I have mentioned here so many times before, there are number of Russian generals who see present NATO expansion as a declaration of war. Today. They are ready to fight back. Believe it or not, but it is Putin who is keeping them at bay for the time being.
- Tons of Countries Want to Buy Russia’s Most Advanced Fighter Jet – Just a friendly reminder to the warmongers in Washington that they won’t be fighting cave dwellers with old AK’s, they will be fighting a nation with 8,000 advanced nuclear warheads and delivery systems.
- Former Kremlin banker: Putin ‘is the richest person in the world until he leaves power’ – That’s interesting and probably true. Eat your heart out Bill Gates?
Most people will argue against my World War 3 forecast by saying that any such war is impossible in today’s day and age. I would disagree, as would our scientific community. It is just a matter of time now. My report outlines exactly WHEN it will start.