Investment Grin Of The Day Google
Is The Market About To Bounce?
Now that the Dow is down close to 930 points over the last 7 trading days, let’s take a look at the bullish side of the argument. I have two articles for you to consider.
- Why Wall Street’s oldest market timing system is bullish
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The stock market is not even close to topping out
First, take the articles above with a grain of salt. The timing system in question is the Dow Theory. Sure, the theory above is not confirming this bear market, but it is too slow for my taste. Well, at least half the system is not confirming this down move. The Dow Transportation Index is suggesting that a bear market is here.
Further, most market participants continue to believe that we are now in a secular bull market that has another 10 years or so to run. Most market consensus readings suggest that to be the case. Yet, as I have suggested so many times before, we still in a secular bear market that will only terminate in 2017. The last 2-3 years are always down. For instance, 1912-1914, 1946-1949 and 1980-1982. Unfortunately, there is no way to avoid it.
With that in mind, no market moves straight up and down. A healthy bounce here would be welcomed. Your job, should you choose to accept it, is to make sure that you don’t mistake this bounce for the next bull leg up.
Subprime Short Bets Big Against Junk Bonds…..Should You Follow.
12/16/2014 – Another down day with the Dow Jones down 112 points (-0.65%) and the Nasdaq down 57 points (-1.24%)
Since about the start of this year I have maintained that when a bear market of 2014-2017 kicks in, a number of things will happen. Junk bonds will blow sky high, 10-Year Note will test 1.5% (double bottom) and the stock market will drift lower. Driving both bulls and bears up the wall in the process.
Joshua Birnbaum, the Ex-Goldman trader who correctly shorted subprime mortgages during the financial crisis tends to agree.
Joshua Birnbaum, the ex-Goldman Sachs Group Inc. trader who made bets against subprime mortgages during the financial crisis, now has more than $2 billion in wagers against high-yield bonds at his Tilden Park Capital Management LP hedge-fund firm, according to investor documents
I believe he is absolute right in his assessment. The situation is not that dissimilar from 2007-2009 period. Except, instead of “subprime” bubble we are currently going though a stock market overvaluation and junk debt bubble. There is just way too much risk in our financial system to warrant today’s valuation levels. Once the tide goes out, you will see junk yields surge. Counterparty risk associated with collapse of Russia (discussed earlier this morning) might get this party going.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. December 16th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
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Subprime Short Bets Big Against Junk Bonds…..Should You Follow. Google
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What Is Your Overall Stock Market Forecast For 2015? – Daily Podcast Google
Investment Wisdom Of The Day
Bloodbath In Russia. Will It Spill Over?
Last night Russia announced a surprise emergency rate hike to 17%. It didn’t help. Oil continues to slide, Ruble collapsed and the Russian stock market tanked 13%. And while the Obama Administration is high fiving their Saudi counterparts for the time being, the situation is now out of everyone’s control. The markets have taken over and we don’t know how far they will take it. This is reminiscent of the 1998 financial crisis.
We do not yet know the counterparty risk associated with this oil and Russian collapse. Are there hedge funds out there that just got blown up? Will Russian corporations begin defaulting on their massive loans? Will that snowball throughout worldwide capital markets? Will this devastate US Shale Oil industry? When will this tidal wave hit the US markets? Is it already happening?
That is to say, there are more questions than answer. Yet, rest assured, this stunt that the Obama administration pulled will have severe negative consequences on the US Economy and capital markets. They just haven’t manifested ……..quite yet.
Bill Gross: No Bond Liquidity. Is Another 2008 Credit Crunch Coming?
12/15/2014 – Another down day with the Dow Jones down 101 points (-0.58%) and the Nasdaq down 48 points (-1.04%).
The stock market continues to perform just as anticipated. Not only did InvestWithAlex timed/priced the exact top at 17,991 with appropriate positioning, we have a fairly good idea of what happens next Click Here to find out.
Now, when Bill Gross talks, particularly about the bond market, you better listen. Everyone is trying to squeeze through a very small door. Also, you if haven’t noticed the 10-Year Note continues to sell off and is now quickly approaching October lows. A huge red flag for the stock market considering today’s valuation levels.
“When levered money moves and tries to seek a safe haven, basically you have violent price movements,” Gross said, adding there is “very little liquidity” in the corporate bond markets, especially in high-yield debt. “Everyone is trying to squeeze through a very small door.”
I tend to agree with Bill, when the s&*# finally hits the fan you will see liquidity dry up overnight. Just as it did back in 2008. And that applies not only to the overall corporate bond market, but to the short-side and the stock market in particular. Don’t forget, we are at historic margin debt level highs and everyone is long “Apple”. In other words, when this stock market finally breaks, good luck finding anyone to buy your shares.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. December 15th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
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Bill Gross: No Bond Liquidity. Is Another 2008 Credit Crunch Coming? Google
Investment Wisdom Of The Day
Congress Declares War On Russia
Since about this time last year I have maintained that Ukraine will turn into a major flare up between the West and Russia. Plus, bar none, I continue to believe the situation in Ukraine is the most important development since the World War 2. It will ultimately lead to an actual war between the superpowers.
On Friday, the US Congress took a major step closer towards making this war a reality. I have said it before and I will say it again. Russia will NEVER let Ukraine fall under NATO or EU. That would be major loss for Putin and the end of his presidency. With the US agreeing to arm Ukraine, Russia might have no other choice but to invade. I wonder if that is exactly what NATO and the US want. Either way, don’t be surprised if this powder keg explodes very soon and impacts our financial markets in a major negative way.
If you are interested in the subject matter, as you should be, here is your reading homework for today.
- US To Shift Nuclear Missiles in Europe in Anticipation of War Vs Putin
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Russia threatens response if US sets new sanctions over Ukraine
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US Congress passes Russia sanctions, arms for Ukraine
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Saudi Arabia’s oil war against Iran and Russia
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How Vladimir Putin Upset NATO’s Strategy
In other words, things continue to develop just as predicted in my recently published book, The Nuclear World War 3 Is Coming Soon: Shocking TIME Formula Reveals Exactly When How & Why.
Wall Street: Dear Santa….Please Make This Market Rally
12/12/2014 – Another big down day with the Dow Jones down 308 points (-1.75%) and the Nasdaq down 55 points (-1.16%)
The stock market continues to perform as anticipated. Please Click Here to learn what happens next. And while most of Wall Street anticipated a Santa Claus rally, here is what I told my PREMIUM subscribers on December 4th, 2014.
“With that said, let’s take a closer look at our primary forecasting index, the Dow. As I have suggested over the last few days, my mathematical calculations show a strong point of force located at 18,000 (+/- 50 points). The exact hit would occur at 17,990. Today’s Intraday top of 17,940 was, once again, within the margin of error. It is my feeling that the Dow will push just a little bit higher, to get a more direct hit, before reversing down.”
If you are keeping track, the Dow topped out the following day (thus far) at 17,991. Just ONE point over my optimal target. The Dow is now 700 points lower. Yet, that is beside the point. What happens next is a lot more important.
That is why next week becomes crucial for the stock market. As I discuss in my weekly update (to my Premium Subscribers), the stock market will either go though a strong bounce or sell off into a certain date in December.
In other words, while the Wall Street might be lucky enough to get their “Santa Rally” into the end of the year, they might also be decimated to the point where the Dow ends in the negative territory for the year. If you would like to find out exactly what happens and the exact DATE of this point next week, please Click Here.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. December 12th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!
Wall Street: Dear Santa….Please Make This Market Rally Google