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Daily Stock Market Update. July 8th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart June 9 2014An up day with the Dow Jones up 79 points (+0.47%) and the Nasdaq up 27 points (+0.63%) 

 Quite an interesting day, full of contradictions. 

So, let me get this straight. The yield curve is flattening, the FED is tightening and even Janet Yellen now thinks that the market is out of sync with reality. Yet, the market keeps going higher (developing as per our internal forecasts). Yet, you have fools predicting the DOW 20,000 by the end of the year. I think the most accurate representation of today’s market environment would be imagining a lit fuse disappearing into a 40ft container load full of TNT.

I have said it before and I will say it again. As the market continues to be stuck in a very tight trading range (since the beginning of this year), it continues to accumulate energy. When this energy is finally released, there will be hell to pay. Literally. In other words, investors who ignore this warning will pay dearly, just as they did in 2007.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 9th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Daily Stock Market Update. July 8th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com  Google

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How ‘Bout Them Apples. (10 Bagger Book, Part 7)

apple products

Continuation of part 6….

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:

Apple’s story cannot be told without first concentrating on its founder and the driving force behind the company, Steve Jobs. As you probably know, Steve Jobs was forced out of Apple in 1985, only to return as Apple’s CEO in 1997. It was at that point that “Chapter 2” in Apple’s history began.  Steve was able to bring the company back from its near death experience by introducing a number of popular PC’s, cutting costs and by securing a large investment from Microsoft.  Immediate after his return Apple’s stock price started to surge, appreciating close to 1,000% by March of 2000 (A Tenbagger in 2.5 years). Then, the Nasdaq crashed and so did Apple’s stock price. Going from $20 a share to $2 a share in a matter of 9 months.

To establish a clear picture of what had happened over the last 12 years we must first study the fundamental growth of the company between 2002 and today.

Key Statistics 2002(December 31, 2002) 2014 (July 8th,2014)
Price Per Share $2.00 $95.00
Market Cap $15.5 Billion $575 Billion
Earnings Per Share $0.026 $5.96
P/E Ratio 77 16
Price/Sales Ratio 2.72 3.27
Price/Book Ratio 2.94 4.8
Revenue $5.7 Billion $ 176 Billion
Net Income $65 Million $38 Billion
Annual Earnings Growth 7%(revenue) 9.2% (fiscal 2013)
Total Cash $415,000 $41 Billion
Total Debt $4.3 Billion $17 Billion
Book Value Per Share $0.68 $20.5
Shares Outstanding 6 Billion (split adjusted) 6 Billion
Total Assets $6.2 Billion $207 Billion
Shareholder Equity $4.1 Billion $123 Billion

As we analyze the data above, one thing jumps out at us immediately. Apple’s fundamental growth has been as impressive over the last 11-12 years as its stock price growth. During this period of time revenue grew by 3,733%, earnings per share increased by 22,846%, book value grew by 2,914% and shareholders equity jumped by 2,900%. More than justifying the rise in the stock price.

We must now go back to the 2001-2002 period in order to determine why the company was selling at such a discounted level and what fundamental changes would occur to propel the stock price higher.

While it might be hard to believe, back in 2002 about 80% of Apple’s revenue was generated through the sales of their Macintosh, PowerBook, iMac and iBook products.  And while they were already selling iPod’s (introduced in 2001), this revolutionary product hasn’t even began to gain traction yet.  In simple terms,  Apple was just another PC company in the midst of a massive Nasdaq/technology bubble bust. Yet, the company was already giving us a hint of what was to come.

From their 2002 Annual Report: The company believes that personal computing has entered a new era in which the personal computer functions for both professionals and consumers as the digital hub for advanced new digital devices such as digital music players, personal digital assistants, cellular phones, digital still and movie cameras, CD and DVD players, and other electronic devices.   

To Be Continued Tomorrow……

z32

How ‘Bout Them Apples. (10 Bagger Book, Part 7) Google

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The Shocking Truth Behind Predicting Nuclear World War 3 (Chapter 1,Part 3)

cycles of time investwithalex

Continuation of Part 2…..It is important to note that the small variation (of +/- 1 year) in duration of these cycles is caused by smaller or larger cycles arriving at the same time.  Please note, the stock market is an incredibly complex entity that requires much further explanation. If you would be interested in learning how the stock market works behind the scenes I would highly recommend my other book Timed Value for your consideration.

The main point I want you to understand very clearly here is this.  Based on the cycles above we are no longer working in an arbitrary fashion when it comes to predicting the future. If movements in the financial markets can be predicted with precision of a surgeon over a 100 years period of time,  the same type of analysis can be applied towards predicting wars. In other words, if the stock market repeats a clearly defined 17-18 year Bull/Bear cycle over a 220 year period of time (since 1790) and does so without interruption,  it is safe to assume that the future is cyclical/predictable and not random.

THE 5 YEAR CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET

One  other easily identifiable cycle within the stock market is the 5 year cycle. The 5 year cycles tends to represent one completed growth pattern or one completed Bull or Bear cycle. They tend to appear for 5 years, disappear and then reappear at a certain point in the future. While they are not as sequential as the 17-18 year cycle above, once their place within the overall stock market is understood, they show up at exactly the right time.

  • 1914 -1920: Bull Market
  • 1924-1929: Bull Market (followed by a 1929 crash)
  • 1932-1937: Bull Market (followed by a 1937 crash)
  • 1937-1942: Bear Market
  • 1966-1971: Bear Market
  • 1982-1987: Bull Market (followed by a 1987 crash)
  • 1994-2000: Bull Market (followed by a 2000 crash)
  • 2002-2007: Bull Market (followed by a 2007 crash)
  • 2009-2014: Bull Market

One thing to understand about these 5 Year cycles is that they are exact. They have much lower level variance as compared to their longer counterparts. Essentially, we are NOT talking about 5 years +/- 6 months. We are talking about 5 years +/- a few days. For instance, the 2002-2007 cycle started on October 10th, 2002 (at 2002 bottom) and terminated on October 11th, 2007. If you are counting, that is exactly 5 Years and 1 day.  In other words, scary accurate. I encourage you to study the other cycles outlined above in order to prove to yourself how shockingly accurate they all are.

CONCLUSION:  

It is my hope that I have proven to you, without a shadow of a doubt, that the TIME cycles I talk about are real. If the stock market,  a supposed volatile and unpredictable entity, moves in accordance to clearly defined TIME cycles, so does everything else. As everything else in nature and our 3-Dimensional architecture, time becomes cyclical. Giving us the ability to predict nuclear World War 3 with stunning accuracy.  And that is exactly what we will be doing in the next chapter. We will look at the major war cycle to help us ascertain exactly when this war will start.

To Be Continued Tomorrow…...(Why Are You Seeing This On A Financial Website?)

Z30

The Shocking Truth Behind Predicting Nuclear World War 3 (Chapter 1,Part 3) Google

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Daily Stock Market Update. July 8th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart July 8 2014

Another down day with the Dow Jones down 118 points (-0.69%) and the Nasdaq down 60 points (-1.35%) 

The stock market continues to develop as per our exact forecasts. Click Here  If you follow traditional financial media, you head should be spinning right about now. Where they have tried to explain last week’s rally with proposed/anticipated double digit earnings growth and baked in Dow 20,000, this week’s sell off is attributed to Concern Over ‘Severe’ Pullback Sends U.S. Stocks Lower  So, which one is it?   One thing is for sure, trying to explain any sort of market action after the fact is a fools game.

Luckily for you, I don’t play that game. Simply put, the stock market is in the process of building a complex top before a massive bear market begins. In the meantime, the market will continue to oscillate up and down, without as much as going anywhere and driving everyone insane. When will this sideways market end? When will the market top out and when will the bear market start? While I wish I could post this information here, I cannot.

I can tell you one thing. Getting out at the top in 2014 would be equivalent to getting out at the top in 1987, 2000, 2007, etc…

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 8th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Daily Stock Market Update. July 8th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com  Google

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How ‘Bout Them Apples. (10 Bagger Book, Part 6)

AAPL

Company Name:  Apple, Inc Stock Symbol:  AAPL Industry:  Technology/PC
Percent Appreciation:  3,700% Number of Bags:  37 Holding Period:  11 Years
Entry Date & Price:  May, 2003 @$2.50 share Exit Date & Price: Current ($95/share) Original Investment($10,000): $370,000

Company Description:  Apple Inc. and its wholly-owned subsidiaries design, manufacture, and market mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players worldwide. It also sells software, services, peripherals, networking solutions, and third-party digital content and applications related to its products. The company offers iPhone, a line of smartphones that comprise a phone, music player, and Internet device; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets based on Apple’s iOS Multi-Touch operating system; Mac, a line of desktop and portable personal computers; and iPod, a line of portable digital music and media players, such as iPod touch, iPod nano, iPod shuffle, and iPod classic.

Quick Trading Overview & Objective: Apple’s ups and downs over the last three decades are very well known and it would be impossible to account for all of its trading/investing history in this short overview. For our purposes, we will concentrate on Apple’s latest stock rally initiating in April of 2003. At that time, Apple’s stock set a multi years low of $1.87 a share. A low unseen since 1982. It was at that juncture that the stock proceeded to bottom  and then kick off a massive multi-year rally of 3,700% (as of 7/8/2014 @$95).

We will now go back in time and take an in depth look at the company in order to determine if we could have taken a long position at that time. More importantly, we will look at Apple’s fundamental/trading patterns over the last 11-12 years to ascertain if we would have been able to maintain our position over an entire period.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:

Apple’s story cannot be told without first concentrating on its founder and the driving force behind the company, Steve Jobs. As you probably know, Steve Jobs was forced out of Apple in 1985, only to return as Apple’s CEO in 1997. It was at that point that “Chapter 2” in Apple’s history began.  Steve was able to bring the company back from its near death experience by introducing a number of popular PC’s, cutting costs and securing a large investment from Microsoft.  Immediate after his return Apple’s stock price started to surge, appreciating close to 1,000%,  by March of 2000(A Tenbagger in 2.5 years) . Then, the Nasdaq crashed and so did Apple’s stock price. Going from $20 a share to $2 a share in a matter of 9 months.

To be continued tomorrow…..  

z33

How ‘Bout Them Apples. (10 Bagger Book, Part 6) Google

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The Shocking Truth Behind Predicting Nuclear World War 3 (Chapter 1,Part 2)

Long Term Dow Structure3

 

Continuation of Part 1….

THE 17-18 YEAR CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET:

Long-term cycles within the stock market tend to oscillate going all the way back to the first day of trading in May of 1790.  If you would be inclined, I encourage you to verify that information for yourself. For our purposes we will start our analysis a little bit later or exactly 100 years ago. As the chart above indicates, the stock market tends to oscillate in clearly defined 17-18 year alternating Bull/Bear market cycles.

  • 17.5 Year Bull Market (1914 bottom to 1932 bottom):  The previous bear market terminated in July of 1914. At that time the US stock market shut down for World War 1. The stock market remained closed between the August of 1914 and December of 1914 (a very rare occurrence). When the market finally reopened in December of 1914 it immediately began a rally that would not terminate until October of 1929. Followed by a now famous 1929 stock market crash and a massive 90% 3 year decline. The cycle terminated at the bottom in 1932, completing the 17.5 year bull market cycle at that time.

*Note: It is important to address the 1929-1932 bear market and its impact on the overall 1914-1932 Bull Market cycle. It is a complex matter to discuss without sufficient background or understanding, but the final (short-term) structural composition of this Bull Cycle inverted over the last 3 years(1929-1932). Mostly due to a massive rally between 1924-1929 and a number of down cycles converging on this time period at the same time.  Regardless, the overall cycle lasted 17.5 years.

  • 17 Year BEAR Market (1932 bottom to 1949 bottom):  The cycle originated at the bottom in July of 1932 and lasted until June of 1949. During this period of time we had a post great depression bounce, 1937 crash and World War 2. Yet, despite the overall upward trajectory, this clearly defined 1949 bottom remained 60% below its 1929 top and well below both the 1937 and 1942 tops.
  • 17 Year BULL Market (1949 bottom to 1966 top): The market surged higher between 1949 bottom and  1966 top. This was the so called “Golden Age” of post war reconstruction and the American industrial boom. During this time the Dow appreciated over 500% in a clearly defined bull market cycle.
  • 16.5 Year BEAR Market (1966 top to 1982 bottom):  The market stayed relatively flat during this period of time with a few notable declines of 30-50%. With the 1972-1974 mid cycle decline of 54% being the largest one.  This clearly defined bear market completed in August of 1982. Approximately 25% below its 1966 top.
  • 17.5 Year BULL Market (1982 bottom to 2000 top):  A very well known period and a clearly defined bull market. The market surged higher from August of 1982 bottom to reach its historic top in January of 2000. During this time the Dow appreciated over 1,400% in one of the strongest bull markets in history.
  • 17 Year BEAR Market (2000 top to 2017 bottom):  Even though the market is sitting at an all time high (as of this writing on July of 2014) and even though most people have assumed that the new bull market has started, in relative terms the market hasn’t appreciated very much since its top in 2000. The Nasdaq is still down. Plus, with the final down leg of this bear market being ahead of us (based on my mathematical and timing work), the BEAR market of 2000-2017 should complete itself in a negative territory or below its 2000 top.

To be continued tomorrow……

Z30

The Shocking Truth Behind Predicting Nuclear World War 3 (Chapter 1,Part 2) Google

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Daily Stock Market Update. July 7th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart July 7 2014

A down down day with the Dow Jones down 44 points (-0.26%) and the Nasdaq down 34 points (-0.77%) 

The stock market continues to develop exactly as forecasted (member section). With most markets opening up a large gap down in the morning, the chances are high that the market will push higher over the next few trading days to close today’s gap.

Yet, the fundamental valuation issue persists. The fact the overall stock market is in a massive bubble and the fact that riskiest junk (stock or bonds) is surging ever higher in price. The riskier it is, the better it does as all rational thinking has long been dismissed. Case and point, King Digital Entertainment (KING).  

After its failed IPO, the shares of Candy Crush maker is up 35% over the last two weeks. So, let’s get this straight. The company has ONE hit game that is already declining in popularity, $6.6 BILLION market cap and a big plan to take over the world. Perhaps the same fools who are predicting the Dow 20,000 by the end of the year are the ones buying KING shares.

At the same time this shouldn’t come as a surprise. This is indicative of market tops.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 7th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Daily Stock Market Update. July 7th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com  Google