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Stock Market Update, March 28th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

Daily Chart March 28, 2014 investwithalex

Another volatile day with the Dow Jones appreciating 59 points (0.36%) and the Nasdaq up 4.5 points (0.11%).

The stock market continues to behave just as our mathematical and timing work indicates (exact forecast is available in our subscriber section). Most markets opened up with a gap and rallied early on. Only to sell off and close the gap before reversing higher. I continue to believe that we will see higher prices and a short term bounce over the next few days. As shown yesterday, the Nasdaq continues to be oversold and due for a bounce. Thus far it has been successful in building a short-term base from which it might rally over the next few days. 

Yet, any upside here will be short lived. Our mathematical work continues to show that the bear market of 2014-2017 will start in the not too distant future. If you would like to learn exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and it’s internal composition, please Click Here.  

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What Does The Yield Curve Yield?

The opposite of what most other market participants believe. Most market participants anticipate the FED to tighten, as they have indicated, indicating economic growth and higher interest rates. In such a scenario you should see spreads widening. Instead, we are beginning to see a trend reversal and yield curve compression since the start of this year. 

Does the bond market see something that most other market participants do not? 

I believe so. In fact, we anticipate the yield curve to flatten further over the next 24 months and possibly invert as the bear market of 2014-2017 enters the picture. As we have indicated on this blog so many times before the bear market will usher in a severe recession, forcing the FED to flood the market with further liquidity. In such an environment, we would anticipate the long end of the curve to head lower. Much lower. 

If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and it’s internal composition, please Click Here.  

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Did Washington Warmongers Almost Start Another War In Syria

another war in syria

This is a long complicated story with more plot twists than your typical James Bond movie. This is rather simple. Here is my quick analysis. Washington asked Turkey (it’s NATO ally) to start a military conflict with Syria in order to counterbalance Putin/Russia and to display America’s military might. Unfortunately, direct negotiation plans for a staged attack on Turkey by Syria got leaked, leading to a subsequent ban of YouTube and Twitter in Turkey. This is not going to end well. 

Click Here To See, Read and Decide For Yourself. 

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Private Debt Crisis. Roadmap To Next Economic Collapse?

We all know that over the last few two decades the FED indirectly forced both the US Government and American citizens to blow a giant debt bubble. How big? $36 Trillion. Give or take a few Trillion. Can’t relate?  That is about $110,000 in debt for every American citizen. That includes. 

 As of March 2014, American consumers owe $11.52 trillion in debt, an increase of 1.6% from last year. The average household owes $7,115 on their credit cards and the average indebted household owes $15,252. Americans owe $8.05 trillion in mortgages (the average mortgage debt being $152,209) and $1.08 trillion in student loan debt. When combined with corporate debts the U.S. collectively owes about $28 trillion in private debt. Plus, $7.6 Trillion of national debt. For A Grand Total: $36.6 Trillion. 

According to Richard Vague of Governor’s Woods Foundation, every crisis of our lifetime has been caused by a rapid increase of our private debt. I agree. Most booms are followed by speculative credit bubbles and subsequent collapses. Yet, most people today don’t even have the slightest comprehension of that. The debt levels above are not only burdensome, they cannot be possibly repaid.

The only way to get rid of such debts is either through a default, inflation and/or a war. Since the US Government is in the drivers seat when it comes to our monetary policy, I will let you decide which option they will chose.

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Private Debt Crisis. Roadmap To Next Economic Collapse? Google

The Daily Ticker Writes:We’re in a private debt crisis that could lead to the next economic collapse: Richard Vague

As of March 2014, American consumers owe $11.52 trillion in debt, an increase of 1.6% from last year. The average household owes $7,115 on their credit cards and the average indebted household owes $15,252. Americans owe $8.05 trillion in mortgages (the average mortgage debt being $152,209) and $1.08 trillion in student loan debt. When combined with corporate debts the U.S. collectively owes about $28 trillion in private debt.

“Every major crisis of our lifetime has been caused by a rapid increase of our private debt,” says Richard Vague, chair of the Governor’s Woods Foundation. “They all were a function of runaway private lending.”

People focus too much on government debt, argues Vague, when they should be attempting to quell private debt. 

“There’s reputed to be 10 million mortgages that are still underwater,” he says. “There’s perhaps a half or ¾ of a trillion in second-lean loans that are still a problem and haven’t been dealt with. Those to us are logical candidates for restructuring programs.”

Restructuring loans is a controversial issue and there’s little incentive for banks to do so. Vague suggests allowing banks to spread the losses over a very extended period of time with a one-time dispensation that says “you can spread your losses over 30 years if today you go to the borrower and restructure with them’ they would get rid a problem and get to clean things up.”

Russia Plans To Invade East Ukraine Next Week

I am getting an unconfirmed report from a Russian military acquaintance that Russia will go into East Ukraine late next week. This is further confirmed by my analysis of Russian media and physical Russian troop buildup along Ukraine’s border. This is further confirmed by Pentagon warning and direct warning against such action by Obama. I will have much more on this on Monday as I need to verify this information from another source. Thursday, April 4th was mentioned as the date. 

If true, anticipate the stock market to crater next week. This action will provoke a completely different ball game in the international community. P.S. I have done business in Russia in the past, hence, my contact. 

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How To Invest In Weed To Get Filthy Rich

I fathom that marijuana will be legal in most (if not all) 50 states within 5-10 years. The question is, how do you become filthy rich from the trend? Even if you are a stoner. 

Looking at history, there are 4 general ways when it comes to making money within any new industry. 

1. Grow, Manufacture & Distribute: I wouldn’t know anything about growing or selling marijuana so I digress on this point. There should be a number of other resources on this matter out there. 

2. Sector Servicing: Also known as, selling shovels to the gold miners.  For instance, last I have heard, retailers in Colorado are unable to deposit revenue generated by their businesses into banks due to Federal regulations. Anyone who solves this problem becomes an instant millionaire. There are many others, but I am not involved in the industry to give any other worthwhile advice on this point.  

3. New Products Associated With Marijuana: From pot brownies and pot strawberry/chocolate bars to e-pot cigarettes….use your imagination. Come up with a must have product and you are a few months away from a 60 foot yacht with 10 topples girls on board. The sky is the limit.  

4. Stock Market: Invest in marijuana related companies. Unfortunately, since the industry is so new and technically still “illegal” in most states, there are a very few companies to chose from. There are many penny stocks associated with the industry, but they are too risky. Based on my quick research, there are 3 more or less prominent companies in the industry that are listed. They include GWPH, CANN and CANV. Again, investing in such companies is not without risk. There will be big winners and complete losers. However, if you are able to pick that winner and buy the stock at the right price it should be an easy 10X or even 100X over the next 5-10 years. 

That about covers it. If you would be interested in participating in the sector, pick a category and go for it. I hope this helps. 

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How To Invest In Weed To Get Filthy Rich  Google

Call it a drug trade for investors. Todd Harrison, CEO and founder of Internet-based financial media company MInyanville, thinks cannabis “will be the single best investment idea for the next ten years.”

But while the public has watched recreational marijuana take off in Colorado this year, how can they profit from it as an investment theme?

Harrison believes it will be driven by the broader legalization of marijuana, inspired by states’ need for tax revenue. He points to expectations that legal marijuana use is expected to generate $134 million in tax revenue for the upcoming fiscal year in Colorado, the first state to allow recreational marijuana. That’s  nothing to sneeze at, and Harrison calls the state the “litmus test” for broader legalization. Harrison also cites the expected decline in crime rates and  prison populations as powerful incentives to decriminalize  marijuana.

The New York Times reports that half the states in the U.S., including some in the conservative South, are currently considering decriminalization of the drug or legalizing it for medical or recreational use. Oregon and Alaska are the likeliest to legalize pot next year. Twenty states now permit the use of medical marijuana now, while Colorado and Washington have legalized it for recreational use.

The legal marijuana market is estimated to grow  64% to $2.34 billion in 2014 from $1.44 billion, according to a recent report by the cannabis investment and research firm Arcview Group.

Wall Street currently doesn’t cover the marijuana market as an industry but once legalization is more widespread, that will be the inflection point when we marijuana investing moves mainstream, says Harrison.

Currently the chatter is mostly about marijuana penny stocks. They are not what Harrison is talking about. He says those stocks are very risky and volatile, and he doesn’t touch them.

But there are some “real” companies generating interest. Harrison cites the cannabinoid prescription medicine company GW Pharmaceuticals (GWPH) as an example. He’s not suggesting the stock as a buy or sell, just as an example he’s traded in the past. The stock has rallied more than 500% since last summer.

Advanced Cannabis Solutions (CANN), soared 62% in a single day when its stock chart was shown on CNBC earlier this week — even though it was a mistake, and the anchor was actually discussing another company in the cannabis industry, called CannaVEST (CANV). Advanced Cannabis Solutions leases growing facilities to legal marijuana growers and dispensary operators. CannaVEST makes hemp-based consumer products.(CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story said that Advanced Cannabis Solutions soared 62% in a single day when it was mentioned on CNBC earlier this week.)  

“That’s more bearish than bullish,” says Harrison, reminding him of the bubble levels reached back in Y2K days.

The comparison could cause would-be investors to bristle. Harrison says it’s about investors’ time horizon and risk tolerance. In the bubble of Y2K, everyone was excited about the Internet, he says, and everything they expected the Web to be proved true, but not until after the tech crash.

Harrison says investors should expects ebbs and flows in the marijuana industry. He sees a 10-year horizon with tremendous opportunity that will not be without “potholes, false starts and a lot of risk.” The moral of the story is to do your homework.

Others are more skeptical. Bloomberg reports Mark A.R. Kleiman, professor of public policy at the University of Southern California at Los Angeles, doesn’t “see how there’s money to be made producing an agricultural commodity,” which marijuana is, because once the market becomes competitive, prices will fall.

Other investors recommend avoiding these stocks until marijuana is legal throughout the U.S. Federal law still says marijuana is illegal, though the Obama Administration has said it won’t interfere with the rollout of legalized cannabis in individual states. And though the federal government has said that bankers following Treasury guidelines in providing services to cannabis companies operating in those states won’t face prosecution, many large banks still won’t process funds earned from pot sales.

Bitcoin Crazy

The news cycle for Bitcoin continues to accelerate. Here is all you need to know for this week. 

Still want to invest in Bitcoin? Good luck and enjoy the ride. You have more cojones than I do. 

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Attention: Deflation Is Here, What’s Next?

I have been arguing deflation with inflationists, goldbugs and the likes for years. To no avail. Today’s WSJ snippet (see below) confirms my view without a shadow of a doubt. There is no inflation as the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge slowed to an annual gain of less than 1%. Instead, we are in a deflationary environment where bad debt and credit defaults must be liquidated. 

This becomes even more evident when you think about the amount of liquidity the FED had pumped into our financial system over the last 5 years. Despite, QE, over $1 Trillion in liquidity, and other monetary stimulus, inflation gauge remains at 1%. Without such massive stimulus today’s deflationary environment would be more clear.

Well, let me correct myself. There has been massive inflation over the last few years. In the stock market, the real estate market and some other commodities. Most of the liquidity the FED had infused went right into speculation. When the bear market of 2014-2017 starts all of that inflation will vanish into thin air. Understanding this clearly plays an important role in your upcoming portfolio allocation. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and it’s internal composition, please Click Here.   

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WSJ Writes: Inflation Slows Again, Bouncing Around Four-Year Low

Inflation isn’t just going nowhere. It may be slipping again.

The Commerce Department’s latest read of consumer prices on Friday showed price pressures moving in a direction many Federal Reserve officials find uncomfortable. The personal consumption expenditures price index — the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge — slowed to an annual gain of less than 1%.

The PCE index’s 0.9% annual increase in February marked the weakest reading since October, when year-over-year inflation touched a four-year low.

The latest data suggests the U.S. faces little risk of rapidly accelerating inflation as the Fed slows the amount of stimulus it’s pumping into the economy. Earlier this month, the central bank said it would lower the pace of monthly bond buying by another $10 billion to $55 billion.

Friday’s report showed the pace of food inflation increased in February after holding virtually flat the previous five months. But that gain was largely offset by declining prices for long-lasting durable goods and energy last month.

The consumer price index, a separate inflation measure calculated by the Labor Department and released earlier this month, rose 1.1% in February from a year earlier. That, too, was a slowdown from January. 

United Nations To US: Stop Torturing People & Spying

It is highly unlikely that you will hear this news in the Western media, but United Nations just slammed the US for torture and NSA spying. 

A wide-ranging United Nations report released Thursday strongly criticizes the United States for a host of human rights concerns — from jailing the homeless and sentencing juveniles to life sentences, to drone warfare and spying by the National Security Agency.

“The U.S. is adept at demanding human rights change from other governments, while failing to meet international standards itself,” said Jose Luis Diaz, Amnesty International representative at the United Nations.

I firmly believe that before we shove our God given American “righteousness” down everyone’s throats we should look in the mirror. What I see is not pretty. The US should stop meddling in other countries and concentrate on domestic issues and our economy. Instead of giving billions to Ukraine, send that money to Detroit or back to the American taxpayer.  Yet, most American don’t care. Let’s see if the upcoming recession wakes them up. I doubt it. 

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United Nations To US: Stop Torturing People & Spying Google

 

UN SLAMS US FOR TORTURE, NSA SPYING

A wide-ranging United Nations report released Thursday strongly criticizes the United States for a host of human rights concerns — from jailing the homeless and sentencing juveniles to life sentences, to drone warfare and spying by the National Security Agency.

While the U.N. praised some steps the U.S. government has taken, like curbing human trafficking and a 2009 ban on Central Intelligence Agency torture and secret detention, the report’s authors found the U.S. wanting on 25 human rights issues.

“The U.S. is adept at demanding human rights change from other governments, while failing to meet international standards itself,” said Jose Luis Diaz, Amnesty International representative at the United Nations.

Diaz welcomed the U.N.’s recommendations on torture transparency and calls for ending the death penalty nationwide, as well as limiting the use of solitary confinement in U.S. prisons. 

“It must implement the recommendations of the Human Rights Committee without delay,” said Diaz.

Regarding the use of torture, reforming interrogation techniques does not go far enough, according to the U.N’s Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights. The global body called for an investigation and prosecution of members of the “armed forces and other agents of the U.S. government” allegedly involved in torturing detainees. It also urged the U.S. to shutter the detention camp at Guantanamo Bay and transfer its prisoners.

“The State party [the United States] should ensure that all cases of unlawful killing, torture or other ill-treatment, unlawful detention, or enforced disappearance are effectively, independently and impartially investigated, that perpetrators, including, in particular, persons in command positions, are prosecuted and sanctioned, and that victims are provided with effective remedies,” the report reads.

In light of the NSA spying scandal, the U.N. called on the U.S. to implement protections against the invasion of privacy of individuals by making public laws that allow for surveillance. Furthermore, it pressed the U.S. to “reform the current system of oversight over surveillance activities” by involving judicial supervision. Concerned that “those affected have no access to effective remedies in case of abuse,” the U.N. advised the U.S. to create pathways for restitution for people who’ve been spied on unjustly.

During the course of the U.N.’s investigation, U.S. government representatives argued that spying occurredwithin legal bounds, and that the implementation of new laws had ended torture. State Department official Mary McLeod argued that “substantial oversight” goes into surveillance, according to a Guardian report. 

The report also denounced racial disparities in prosecutions and sentencing, including the use of the death penalty and long drug-related prison sentences for African Americans and Hispanics.

“[The] Committee continues to be concerned about racial disparities at different stages in the criminal justice system, sentencing disparities and the overrepresentation of individuals belonging to racial and ethnic minorities in prisons and jails,” the report states.

The U.N. body calls on the U.S. to retroactively implement the 2010 Fair Sentencing Act and close a loophole that allows thousands of non-violent offenders to languish in federal prisons as a result of draconian drug laws.The report also demands measures to end to racial profiling and praises steps to end New York City’s stop-and-frisk program.

U.S. drone strikes overseas also came under attack in the report. The U.N. expressed deep concern over the impact of unmanned aerial vehicles, saying the U.S. approach to exercising its right to national self defense in carrying out military maneuvers is clouded by a lack of transparency, an unclear definition of when hostilities end and whether someone qualifies as a legitimate target.

The U.N. recommended the United States “take all feasible measures to ensure the protection of civilians in specific drone attacks and to track and assess civilian casualties, as well as all necessary precautionary measures in order to avoid such casualties.”

The U.S., the report concluded, should “establish accountability mechanisms for victims of allegedly unlawful drone attacks who are not compensated by their home governments.”