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Warning: Why Investors Should Be Horrified Of “Boring Markets”

As the WSJ article below indicates, outside of this weeks sell off in high flying technology and Biotech, markets have been fairly “boring” over the last 5-6 weeks and since the start of the year. Yet, based on my mathematical and timing work, investors should always be wary of such periods. The market loves putting investors and traders to sleep right before the big move takes place. That is one of the primary reasons why most investors are caught unprepared. 

Case and point, 1987 top. The market was climbing for exactly 5 years, everyone was fat and happy, there was no indication of any trouble, the market paused gently at the top, oscillated up and down for a few week (putting investors further into sleep), then proceeded to collapse 25% in just a few trading days. Does any of this sound familiar?

No, I am not predicting a 1987 type of a crash here. I am simply stating that investors should pay a very close attention to the market when the market is “boring”. Such periods indicate shifting energy patterns within the market. When the energy shifts markets go from “boring” to “exciting” in a mad dash. As we have stated so many times before, the bear market of 2014-2017 will start shortly. When it does, expect energy patterns to shift. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and it’s internal composition, please Click Here.  

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Warning: Why Investors Should Be Horrified Of “Boring Markets”  Google

WSJ Writes: Morning MoneyBeat: The ‘Meh’ Market

U.S. stocks are stuck in neutral. So is investor sentiment.

The S&P 500 has drifted roughly between 1840 and 1880 for the past six weeks before finishing Thursday at 1849.04. The narrow trading range is representative of investors getting neither too bullish nor too bearish on stocks, a mindset that played out in the latest American Association of Individual Investors’ weekly survey.

Neutral sentiment, the expectation that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, jumped to 40.2% in this week’s AAII poll, the highest level since April 14, 2005. The association releases the results of its Internet survey—which asks its members to register their bullish, bearish or neutral views on the stock market—early each Thursday.

The latest reading marked the 12th straight week in which the neutral reading remained above its historical average of 30.5%.

The nine-year high in neutral sentiment underscores how the rally has stalled after the S&P 500’s 30% surge to record levels last year. The stalemate is expected to continue until a catalyst pushes the market one way or another.

Until then, valuations look relatively pricey in many pockets of the market and the potential for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates as early as 2015 has prompted some worries. Some investors are waiting for a significant pullback before adding to positions, while others are frustrated that the market hasn’t been able to maintain the upward momentum it exhibited last year.

The S&P 500 is up 0.68 point, or 0.04%, in 2014.

“There’s a big disbelief that things are as good as the market makes them out to be at these levels,” Charles Rotblut, vice president of the AAII, said in a chat with MoneyBeat. “Even though we had a huge rally last year, people haven’t bought into the attitude that good times are here,” he added.

There are similarities between now and nine years ago, when neutral sentiment was at these levels. Back then the S&P 500 was in the middle of about a 5% pullback that took place from March through May. The market bounced back but traded in a fairly tight trading range for several months. It was slightly higher in October 2005, six months after that lofty neutral reading, and finished up 3% for the year.

Now, the S&P 500 has bounced back from its 5.8% slump from mid-January through early February and has bounced around ever since.

“The larger story affecting markets hasn’t really changed,” says Dan Greenhaus, chief strategist at BTIG in New York. “We have been advancing our ‘lateral’ trading thesis for many weeks now and in front of earnings season, this view has largely been accurate.”

In other words, welcome back to the “meh” market.

More Proof That Most Economists Are A Waste Of Space

I have long argued that most economists can’t predict future market or economic developments even if the future walks up to them and hits them in face. How dumb are they? (see full article below)

The combination of an improving job market, pent-up consumer demand, less drag from U.S. government policies and a brighter global outlook is boosting optimism for the rest of 2014.

 “We think that once temperatures return to more normal levels, we will see a lot of pent-up demand released,” said Gus Faucher, senior economist at PNC Financial Services. “People will be buying cars and homes and making other purchases that they put off during the winter.”

Yep, it’s the weather everyone. As soon as that snow melts everyone will run out to buy homes and cars, propelling the US Economic growth much higher. Give me a break. Of course, the brilliant economists above don’t take massive credit, overvaluation, speculation, equity markets, etc… bubbles into consideration. For them, it is irrelevant. Yet, the first thing they should learn is as follows. It is not the economy that drives markets forward, it is the financial markets that dictate future economic developments.

That is the reason why recessions “officially” start 6-9 months after stock market tops. As per our mathematical and timing work we anticipate the markets to break down shortly, bringing the US Economy into a severe “official” recession by the end of the year. So, you have a choice. You can listen to such economists and go out to buy tech stocks OR you can start getting ready for the bear market of 2014-2017. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market will start (to the day) and it’s upcoming internal composition, please Click Here.  

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More Proof That Most Economists Are Waste Of Space Google

 

AP Writes: Why economists say 2014 could prove breakout year

WASHINGTON (AP) — Once this year’s harsh weather has faded, the U.S. economy could be poised for a breakout year — its strongest annual growth in nearly a decade.

The combination of an improving job market, pent-up consumer demand, less drag from U.S. government policies and a brighter global outlook is boosting optimism for the rest of 2014.

Many analysts foresee the economy growing 3 percent for the year, after a weak first quarter that followed a stronger end of 2013. It would be the most robust expansion for any year since 2005, two years before the Great Recession began.

One reason for the optimism: The government estimated Thursday that the economy grew at a 2.6 percent annual rate in the October-December quarter, up from its previous estimate of 2.4 percent. Fueling the gain was the fastest consumer spending for any quarter in the past three years.

The numbers pointed to momentum entering 2014 from consumers, whose spending drives about 70 percent of the economy.

Analysts cautioned that the brutal winter weather has depressed spending in the January-March. And they think economic growth has likely slowed to an annual rate of 2 percent or less this quarter. Yet that slowdown could pave the way for a solid bounce-back in the April-June quarter. Many think growth will be fast enough the rest of the year for the economy to grow at least 3 percent for all of 2014.

“We think that once temperatures return to more normal levels, we will see a lot of pent-up demand released,” said Gus Faucher, senior economist at PNC Financial Services. “People will be buying cars and homes and making other purchases that they put off during the winter.”

Economists have suggested before that the recovery appeared on the verge of acceleration, only to have their expectations derailed by subpar growth that left unemployment at painfully high levels.

This time, there’s a growing feeling that the improvements can endure.

“We are looking for progressively faster growth as the year goes on,” said Doug Handler, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight.

The National Association for Business Economics predicts that the economy will grow 3.1 percent this year, far higher than the lackluster 1.9 percent gain in 2013.

If that forecast proves accurate, it would make 2014 the strongest year since the economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, expanded 3.4 percent in 2005. Since the Great Recession ended in June 2009, annual growth over the past four years has averaged a weak 2.2 percent.

The U.S. economy has been hit by a series of blows since then — from a Japanese tsunami and European debt crisis, which hurt U.S. exports, to Washington budget fights, which fueled uncertainty about the government’s spending and tax policies.

Tax increases and deep spending cuts that took effect in 2013 subtracted an estimated 1.5 percentage points from growth last year.

With Congress having reached a budget agreement and a deal to raise the government’s borrowing limit, companies now have more certainty about federal fiscal policies.

“We now seem to have a truce on budget issues, which means uncertainties have faded.” Faucher said. “That is a big reason growth will be stronger.”

Also helping will be an improving outlook overseas. Economies in Europe are strengthening, which should boost U.S. exports. In addition, the U.S. job market is improving.

The Labor Department said Thursday that the number of people seeking unemployment benefits last week reached its lowest level since November — an encouraging sign that hiring should be picking up.

In February, U.S. employers added 175,000 jobs, far more than in the two previous months. Though the unemployment rate rose to 6.7 percent from a five-year low of 6.6 percent, it did so for an encouraging reason: More people grew optimistic about their job prospects and began seeking work. The unemployment rate rose because some didn’t immediately find jobs.

With more people working, more consumers will have money to spend to boost the economy.

“The last missing link to a stronger recovery was income growth, and now we are seeing that,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economics.

Unexpected events might yet prove that analysts are overly optimistic. But at the moment, economists don’t expect the standoff with Russia over Ukraine or the Federal Reserve’s paring of its economic stimulus to destabilize global markets or derail the U.S. recovery.

Naroff said the consensus view might even prove too pessimistic. He said he thought economic growth could achieve a vigorous 4.4 percent annual rate in the April-June quarter if pent-up consumer demand tops estimates. And he said growth could exceed 3.5 percent in the second half of this year.

Presidential Cycle Is About To Take It’s Revenge On The Market

According to the Presidential Cycle tracked by Dana Lyons, the US Equities are about to get clobbered. According to him “Historically, the worst 2-quarter stretch of the presidential cycle is the period spanning the 2nd and 3rd quarters of the second year of a President’s Term. This stretch begins on April 1.” On average, delivering a stunning loss of 1%. 

After doing a tremendous amount of research into the stock market composition there is no such thing as the Presidential Cycle. There are cycles that might or might not correlate with the presidential cycle, but overall fundamental developments do not impact final cyclical composition of the market.  With that said, our mathematical work confirms that the next 2 quarters will not be pretty. Presidential cycle or not. In fact, the bear market of 2014-2017 is scheduled to kick off fairly soon. If you would like to know exactly when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and it’s internal composition, please Click Here. 

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Presidential Cycle Is About To Take It’s Revenge On The Market  Google

The Exchange Writes: Stocks entering worst two quarter stretch of the presidential cycle

Dana Lyons is senior vice president at J. Lyons Fund Management in Deerfield, Illinois and the architect of its Relative Strength Fund. He earned a Bachelor of Science degree in Economics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. Follow Dana on Twitter > @JLyonsFundMgmt.

The Presidential Cycle refers to the pattern of behavior in stock prices throughout the four years of a presidential term. While there are many factors influencing stock prices during a particular period of a particular presidential term, it is one of the more historically consistent seasonal patterns. Specifically, stocks tend to be strong during certain periods of a president’s term and weaker during others. Historically, the worst 2-quarter stretch of the presidential cycle is the period spanning the 2nd and 3rd quarters of the second year of a President’s Term. This stretch begins on April 1.

.

Over the past 100 years, the average return in the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the 2-quarter stretch ending with the 3rd quarter of year 2 of the presidential cycle is minus 1%. Not only is that much weaker than the average return of all 2-quarter periods of 3.5%, it is the only 2-quarter stretch of the entire cycle that is materially negative on average.

There is hope for the bulls, however. First, since there are many factors besides the presidential cycle that affect stock prices, it should only be treated as a gentle headwind. Second, if last year is any guide, the current bull market may be capable of overcoming the historical tendency for weakness over the upcoming two quarters.

Stock Market Update. March 27th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

Daily Chart March 27, 2014 investwithalex

The Dow Jones ended the day where it started  with a loss of 5 points (-0.03%) while the Nasdaq declined 22.35 points (-0.54%). 

The Dow Jones continues to perform as per our forecast, on it’s way to hitting our ultimate mathematical and timing target (forecast available in our subscriber section). The Nasdaq continues to underperform and diverge from the Dow. In fact, over the last five trading days the Nasdaq has lost 4.3% while the Dow declined a more manageable 1.2%. I continue to believe that the Nasdaq is oversold and due for a bounce. In fact, I believe that quarter end window dressing over the next two trading day in conjunction with an “oversold” bounce should propel all markets higher over over the next few trading days. 

Please note, we have no intention of trading this “potential bounce”. Any such gains will be short lived and volatile. Our long term picture remains intact. The bear market of 2014-2017 is just around the corner. If you would like to learn when the bear market will start (to the day) and it’s internal composition, please Click Here.  

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Stock Market Update. March 27th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com  Google

Where Is China’s Hidden Debt Bomb

Bloomberg asks where China’s debt bomb is hiding. Actually it’s not hidden at all. Here it is. 

  • $21 Trillion Debt Mountain. Roughly the same size as the entire US Banking Sector. It took the US 220 years to get to that number, it took China just 5 years of explosive credit growth. 
  • $6 Trillion In Shadow Banking. Actually, no one knows how large this number is. I have read good data/reports putting this number at $10-15 Trillion range.  
  • Empty cities, shopping centers, massive speculative bubble in real estate, built out infrastructure, rising cost of labor and export driven economy.

 There you go, in plain sight for everyone to see. 

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Where Is China’s Hidden Debt Bomb Google

 

Bloomberg Writes: Where Is China’s Debt Bomb Hiding?

Photograph by Sandro Bisaro

Chinese cities are carrying levels of debt, with Shanghai at 123 percent

As fears rise of companies going bankrupt and local governments defaulting, and with speculation mounting about a coming “Bear Stearns Moment,” it’s worth looking at which parts of China are most indebted.

Digging down into the debt morass, region by region, has only just recently become possible. Following orders from Beijing regulators, as of the end of January and for the first time ever, all of China’s 30-some provinces (including the big, centrally administered cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Chongqing) have released figures showing their relative states of indebtedness.

Although there’s plenty to worry about, the picture is a very mixed one, with debt-to-revenue ratios varying from a low of 69 percent in the coastal province of Shandong to as high as 156 percent in the fast-expanding megalopolis of Chongqing, previously run by disgraced leader Bo Xilai.

Other top Chinese cities also showed high levels of debt, with Beijing at 135 percent and Shanghai at 123 percent. Still, they didn’t come close to matching some of their global peers, such as the city of Osaka, Japan (181 percent), or the province of Ontario, Canada (226 percent), notes a recent Moody’s Investors Services (MCO)report on China’s provincial debt burdens.

China’s “local government-related debt is not a monolithic system but one that varies greatly,” writes Moody’s analyst Debra Roane in the March 25 report. She also points out that Canadian provinces are able to manage mounting debt because of their “access to a wide range of taxes that they can adjust independently”—not an option for China’s provinces or cities.

Besides overall amount of debt, the Moody’s report looks at other factors influencing the ability of localities to manage their financial obligations. An important one: debt maturity. By that measure, the danger zone shifts to China’s coastal provinces such as Jiangsu (with more than one-third of its debt due this year) and Zhejiang (about 30 percent due before next January). Beijing and Sichuan province also showed high levels of short-term debt.

The composition of the debt is changing, with borrowers increasingly relying less on bank loans and more on less-regulated sources like shadow banking. Those provinces most dependent on trust products, one popular variety of shadow credit, include the coal-mining province of Shanxi with 27 percent, followed by Chongqing at 15 percent. Next is Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Hebei province near Beijing, all at more than 10 percent. The use of such new products as trusts “complicates the ability of the government to monitor such debt and the ability of market participants to judge the level of indebtedness of local governments,” the report says.

A final concern is the degree to which provinces rely on land sales for their revenue. Again, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Chongqing are among the most dependent, with Fujian and Shandong rounding out the top five. (Tibet relies less on land sales than any other region in China.) “While this revenue source has proven to be quite lucrative, it has also been highly volatile and therefore not a reliable source for debt repayment,” warns Moody’s.

One way to make indebtedness less of a risk would be to allow municipalities or provinces to issue bonds, particularly to help cover infrastructure projects that may not provide returns for many years (to date, bond financing by local governments is largely barred). “It’s not fair if projects that will benefit future generations are funded only through the tax payments of the current generation. So it’s OK to issue some bonds but under strict conditions,” said Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei at a recent conference in Beijing, reported China Daily on March 26.

For the big picture? As of June 30, 2013, total local government debt and contingent liabilities had reached 17.89 trillion yuan (almost $2.9 trillion), up 63 percent from the end of 2010, announced China’s National Audit Office at the end of last year.

America’s Experiment In Debt Slavery Continues Unabated

In a nutshell, the article below has  a number of highly educated attorneys and doctors whining that they cannot afford to buy a new BMW or Audi and get a loan on a large house because of their huge student loan balances. As I shed a tear for them, this is a big problem. Roughly 37 Million Americans now have some sort of a student debt, totaling $1 Trillion. Some are even using student loans as their primary source of income: Student Loans Replace Home Equity ATM’s. 

While it’s a complex financial and personal matter, I would advise people to think twice before getting their college degree. Particularly, if they really on college loans to finance the matter. While it is not a popular opinion, colleges are, more or less, worthless. Let me give you an example.

Let’s take Person A. who starts out as a plumber making $40,000 a year (increasing at 2% per year) right after high school and Person B. who goes to college and graduates with a history degree and a $100,000 debt load. Even if Person B is able to get a better paying job of let’s say $50,000 (which is questionable) it won’t be until about their retirement age that they will be able to catch up, financially speaking, to person A. If at all. According to my quick financial calculations. Making University education not only obsolete, but unnecessary. 

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America’s Experiment In Debt Slavery Continues Unabated Google

 

Ap Writes: $1 trillion student loan debt widens US wealth gap

Rising college costs add to $1 trillion student loan debt, widening US wealth gap

Every month that Gregory Zbylut pays $1,300 toward his law school loans is another month of not qualifying for a decent mortgage.

Every payment toward their student loans is $900 Dr. Nida Degesys and her husband aren’t putting in their retirement savings account.

They believe they’ll eventually climb from debt and begin using their earnings to build assets rather than fill holes. But, like the roughly 37 million others in the U.S. saddled with $1 trillion in student debt, they may never catch up with wealthy peers who began life after college free from the burden.

The disparity, experts say, is contributing to the widening of the gap between rich and everyone else in the country.

“If you graduate with a B.A. or doctorate and you get the same job at the same place, you make the same amount of money,” said William Elliott III, director of the Assets and Education Initiative at the University of Kansas. “But that money will actually mean less to you in the sense of accumulating assets in the long term.”

Graduates who can immediately begin building equity in housing or stocks and bonds get more time to see their investments grow, while indebted graduates spend years paying principal and interest on loans. The standard student loan repayment schedule is 10 years but can be much longer.

The median 2009 net worth for a household without outstanding student debt was $117,700, nearly three times the $42,800 worth in a household with outstanding student debt, according to a report co-written by Elliott last November.

About 40 percent of households led by someone 35 or younger have student loan debt, a 2012 Pew Research Center analysis of government data found.

Allen Aston is one of the lucky ones, having landed a full academic and financial-need scholarship at Ohio State University. The 22-year-old software engineer from Columbus estimates it let him avoid about $100,000 in debt.

Without loans to repay, Aston is already contributing 6 percent of his salary to a retirement fund that is matched in part by his employer and doesn’t have the same financial concerns his friends do.

“I’m making the same money as them, but they have student loans they’re paying back that I don’t. So, it definitely seems noticeable,” he said.

At the other end of the spectrum is Zbylut, an accountant-turned-attorney in Glendale, Calif. He’s been chipping away at nearly $160,000 in student debt since graduating in 2005 from law school at Loyola University in Chicago. Now 48, the tax attorney estimates he could have $150,000 to $200,000 in a 401(k) had the money he’s paid toward loans gone there.

“I’m sitting here in traffic. I’ve got a Mercedes behind me and an Audi in front of me and I’m thinking, ‘What did they do that I didn’t do?'” Zbylut said by cellphone from his Chevrolet. He’s been turned down twice for the type of mortgage he needs to buy a home big enough for himself, the fiancee he would have married already if not for his debts and her 10-year-old son.

“I have more education and more degrees than my father, as does she than her parents, and yet our parents are better off than we are. What’s wrong with this picture?” he said.

Student debt is the only kind of household debt that rose through the Great Recession and now totals more than either credit card or auto loan debt, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Both the number of borrowers and amount borrowed ballooned by 70 percent from 2004 to 2012.

Of the nearly 20 million Americans who attend college each year, about 12 million borrow, according to the Almanac of Higher Education. Estimates show that the average four-year graduate accumulates $26,000 to $29,000 in loans, and some leave college with six figures worth of debt.

The increases have been driven in part by rising tuition, resulting from reduced state funding and costlier campus facilities and amenities. Compounding the problem has been a trend toward merit-based, rather than need-based, grants as institutions seek to attract the higher-achieving students who will boost their standings.

“Because there’s a strong correlation in this country between things like SAT scores or ACT scores and wealth or income, the (grant) money ends up going disproportionately to students from wealthier families” who tend to perform better on those tests, said Donald Heller, dean of the Michigan State University College of Education.

Those factors, along with stagnating family incomes and declining savings, have made student loans a much bigger part of funding higher education, Elliott said.

Harvard Business School’s Michael Norton wonders whether greater public awareness of the widening wealth gap in the United States would hasten policy change. Norton conducted a 2011 survey that found that people tend to think wealth is more equally distributed than it is.

But with elected officials from President Barack Obama on down now talking about the wealth gap as an urgent public problem, a more complete picture seems to be emerging, he said.

“Both parties are now saying, perhaps inequality has gotten to the point where it’s not fair when people don’t have a chance to rise, and we need to do something about it,” Norton said.

Targeting the soaring cost of higher education, Obama in August proposed the most sweeping changes to the federal student aid program in decades. His plan would link federal money to new college ratings and reward schools if they help low-income students, keep costs low and have large numbers of students earn degrees.

Lawmakers in Congress also are debating how to address the issue, including proposals to allow graduates with high-interest loans to refinance at lower rates.

The American Medical Student Association supports expanding the National Health Services Corps, which provides loan forgiveness in exchange for service in underserved areas.

Nida Degesys, AMSA’s president, graduated in May 2013 from Northeast Ohio Medical University with about $180,000 in loans. The amount has already swelled with interest to about $220,000.

“There were times where this would make me stay up at night,” Degesys said. “The principal alone is a problem, but the interest is staggering.”

Yet, as costly as medical school was, Degesys sees it as an investment in herself and her career, one she thinks will pay off with a higher earning potential.

College degrees can pay off. College graduates ages 25 to 32 working full time earn $45,500, about $17,500 more than their peers with just a high school diploma, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of census data.

Elliott says the country needs to re-think college financing options to bring debt down and graduation rates up.

“We can’t,” he said, “let debt hinder a whole generation of people from beginning to accumulate wealth soon after graduating college.”

Obama’s Lack Of Strategic Thinking Delivers Another Win For Russia

Tsar Putin issued a directive to Russia’s central bank to immediately create national processing and payment system as MasterCard and Visa pullout due to the US sanctions. While President Obama believes this move will hurt Russia’s economy, over the long-term this is net positive for Russia. As Russia continues it’s diversification from Western influences by shifting their attention to China and India and by structuring/signing massive long term oil and natural gas deals, the West (EU in particular) might soon find itself competing with 3.5 Billion people for limited natural resources.  In addition, as the US financial companies pull out, the West will continue to have less and less influence over Russia’s economy and currency. Another unintentional and clear win for Russia.  

vladimir_putin1

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Obama’s Lack Of Strategic Thinking Delivers Another Win For Russia  Google

AP Reports: Russia to set up own payment system

MOSCOW (AP) — Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that Russia will set up its own payment system to rival Visa and MasterCard after the companies pulled their services from several banks in the wake of the sanctions imposed on the country.

Last week, the United States and the European Union imposed travel bans and asset freezes on two dozen Russians who are believed to be Putin’s close allies, following the country’s annexation of Crimea.

The banks of some of those individuals reported suspension of card services. Visa and MasterCard suspended services for St. Petersburg-based bank Rossiya, which was specifically targeted by U.S. sanctions, and two of its subsidiary lenders.

In a meeting with Russian lawmakers Putin said the country’s central bank is “working hard” to set up Russia’s own payment system, citing the recent troubles facing Rossiya and others.

“This is not our decision,” he said in televised comments. “We have to protect our interests, and we will do it.”

Putin expressed “regret” that the companies halted their services and cited Japan’s JCB or China’s UnionPay as examples of successful card business which started off as domestic companies but have expanded internationally ever since.

Russian officials have criticized the reliance on Visa and MasterCard, saying Russian banks are hostage to international corporations.

Z30

Why Interest Rates Will Remain Low

According to David Kotok, co-founder, chairman and chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors,  “long-term rates are likely to stay near current levels for quite a while”.

I tend to agree, but I will go even further. Not only will interest rates stay low, but I would expect the 10-Year Note to retrace back to at least 2% over the next 2-3 years. Why? 

Again, the forecast above is based on our incredibly accurate mathematical and timing work. This work predicts a severe bear market in US equities between 2014-2017 and a subsequent deep recession. As it is now, inflation is nonexistent as we continue to deal with debt liquidating deflationary forces.

When the bear market hits (we are almost there), the FED will have no choice but to abandon their “tightening” plan. Instead, a year from now they will be flooding the market with further liquidity/stimulus to try and avoid any further collapse. As you can understand, in such a interest rate environment, short-term rates will remain at zero while long-term tail of the yield curve will flatten once again. 

If you would like to find out exactly when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and it’s internal composition, please Click Here. 

Percent growth

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Why Interest Rates Will Remain Low   Google

The Daily Ticker Reports: Short-term interest rates likely to stay near zero for 2 more years: David Kotok

A week after Janet Yellen unnerved financial markets in her first press conference as Fed chair, markets have settled down. The Dow (DJI), which fell 114 points after she suggested the Fed could raise interest rates “something on the order of six months” after ending its asset purchases, has made up for close to half its losses that day. And the 10-Year Treasury yield (^TNX) has dropped slightly, to 2.7% from 2.78%, raising Treasury prices, which move inversely to yields.

David Kotok, co-founder, chairman and chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors, tells The Daily Ticker that long-term rates are likely to stay near current levels for quite a while unless the economy tanks — in which case they could drop to near 2% — or inflation takes off, sending rates sharply higher. And he expects short-term rates — which are set more directly by the Fed — will remain near zero. 

“The Fed is still easy. The interest rate is still near zero and it’s going to be there for two more years,” says Kotok who describes himself as an “unabashed fan of Janet Yellen.”

Indeed, in its latest policy statement Fed said that it continued to anticipate near zero short-term rates “for a considerable time after” after it ends asset purchases so long as inflation is under 2% and long-term inflation expectations are contained. At the current rate of Fed tapering, those purchases would end in December. 

The Fed had previously tied raising short-term rates to an unemployment rate at 6.5% or below but dropped the jobless rate reference in its latest communique.

Future Fed policy will be not only data-dependent but also a reflection of the makeup of its policy-making Federal Open Market Committee, says Kotok, noting that the 12-person committee is currently short three members and more changes will follow after those vacancies are filled.

“The nature of the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to develop [as] more dovish, a little less hawkish … because of the changes in personalities in the next year,” says Kotok.

President Obama has nominated former vice chair of Citigroup Stanley Fischer as Fed vice chairman and Lael Brainard, former Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, to the Fed board. Current Fed Governor Jerome Powells, who served in George H.W. Bush’s White House, has been re-nominated (his current erm is expiring). Also, Cleveland Fed Bank President Sandra Pianalto is expected to leave at the end of May. 

The Senate banking committee has held hearings on the nominations but the full Senate hasn’t voted yet on the nominations. 

Watch the video above for more on David Kotok’s view of future Fed policy and tell us your expectations for Fed policy.

Real Estate Mirage Breaks Down

AKA, dead cat bounce in the real estate market is over. According to the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales index “unexpectedly” fell 0.8% in February and 10.5% from a year ago level. This should not be unexpected to the readers of this blog. In fact, I have predicted that the housing market is topping out and rolling over as far back as September of 2013. If you would like to get a complete real estate report and learn exactly what will happen over the next few years, please read my comprehensive report. Real Estate Collapse 2.0 Why, How & When 

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Real Estate Mirage Breaks Down  Google

WSJ Reports: Vital Signs: Housing’s Recovery Is Losing Momentum

The National Association of Realtor’s pending home sales index unexpectedly slipped 0.8% in February, pushing the index 10.5% below its year-ago level. And with the January index revised down, pending home sales have fallen for eight consecutive months.

The downtrend foreshadows weakness in future existing home sales. (The pending sales index is based on contract signings, while sales are counted after closings.) While weather may have caused some buyers to hold off from housing hunting, affordability is becoming more of a challenge. Price increases and higher mortgage rates are pricing some potential buyers out of the market.

The NAR forecasts existing-home sales will total 5.0 million this year, down slightly from nearly 5.1 million in 2013.