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Is Candy Crush Worth $7.6 Billion?

In today’s market it might as well be worth a Trillion. After all, the valuations of Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp are once again reminiscent of the 2000 Tech Bubble.  If WhatsApp, the company with no revenue to speak of is worth $1.6 Billion…..King Digital Entertainment (maker of Candy Crush) can theoretically be worth  $7.6 Billion. At least they have $1.9 Billion in revenue, although 80% of that revenue is from Candy Crush alone. 

Yet, all of this is a fools game. 

On the bright side, these sort of IPO’s allow savvy investors to make a killing on the short side. Yes, King Digital will IPO and it’s share price is likely to be up significantly over the next few trading days or even months. However, the eventual collapse in their share price is almost a given. Particularly, when you take the bear market of 2014-2017 into consideration. Zynga’s 85% share price loss within a 6 months period of time is a perfect example of what is to come for King Digital.

With that said and as always, please do your own research and make your own investment decisions.  

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Is Candy Crush Worth 7.6 Billion?  Google

 

* To offer 22.2 million shares at $21-$24/share

* To list shares on NYSE under symbol “KING”

* Shares scheduled to start trading on March 26 – underwriters

March 12 (Reuters) – King Digital Entertainment Plc, the maker of hit mobile phone game Candy Crush Saga, expects to be worth up to $7.6 billion when it goes public this month as the Irish company looks to take advantage of strong demand for technology investments.

The successful IPO of Twitter Inc in November and a surge in Facebook Inc’s share price have fueled speculation that a string of technology firms could come to market, including music-sharing service Spotify, lodging service AirBnB and payments company Square.

King should also get a boost in its U.S. initial public offering from a surge in shares of digital coupon company Coupons.com Inc after it went public on Friday. Shares of Coupons.com doubled after being priced above the company’s planned IPO range.

King Digital said it expected to price its IPO of 22.2 million shares at between $21 and $24 per share. At the top of this range, the company would be valued at about $7.6 billion.

The offering is scheduled to be priced on March 25 and the stock will start trading on March 26, two underwriters told Reuters.

The Dublin-based company will sell 15.5 million shares in the offering, while stockholders, including Apax Ventures, will sell 6.7 million shares, the company said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday. ()

King is hoping to benefit from a shift towards mobile platforms, social networks and app stores. The company derived 73 percent of gross bookings from mobile users in the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31.

In February, an average of 144 million daily active users played the company’s games more than 1.4 billion times per day, the filing showed.

The King IPO will raise as much as $532.8 million at the top-end of the planned range. It filed for a $500 million placeholder in February.

Entities related to Apax will own 44.2 percent of the company following the offering, according to the IPO filing. CEO Riccardo Zacconi, who has led the company since it was founded in 2003 in Sweden, will have a 9.5 percent stake.

Candy Crush Saga, which involves moving candies to make a line of three in the same color, was the most downloaded free app of 2013 and the year’s top revenue-grossing app.

It has been downloaded more than 500 million times since its launch in 2012. The basic games are free, but players must pay for add-ons or extra lives.

King offers 180 games in 14 languages through mobile phones, Facebook and its own website, but is heavily reliant on Candy Crush, which brings in about three-quarters of its revenues.

Nuclear World War 3 Is Coming Soon.When, How & Why (Full Report)

nuclear explosion

Quick Update: May of 2015: Over the last few months quite a few people told me that my timing is off. Questioning my work and suggesting that this war will start much sooner than 2029. Well, it’s NOT going to happen.  My cycle work is exact. What I talk about below represents approximately 5% of my work. I left quite a bit of stuff out. Every single war, including smaller wars, can be predicted with these cycles. Either through the primary 84 year war cycle or its smaller counterparts. 

Let me give you another quick example that I didn’t mention in the book/report below. The US entered World War 1 in April of 1917. Exactly 84 years from that date brings us into April of 2001. Just 5 months shy of September 11th, 2001 and the start of Iraq/Afghanistan/Terror wars. In other words, scary accurate. I rest my case.    

A Few Excerpts From The Book

If you want to see the rest of the information, please get the book. In addition to the excerpts below the book offers mathematical proof and the steps you need to take in order to save your family and yourself.  

WARNING LABEL

Yes, this book should come with its own warning label. The subject matter discussed here is beyond hard to swallow. For most people. Try telling parents that their kids only have 15-20 years to enjoy life before their world is turned into a literal hell and you will get a death stare of a thousand knifes. Try telling Christians that there will be no Rapture before the gates of hell open up and they will curse your soul to ten thousand years of fiery hell.  Try telling religious leaders and scholars that the final war will NOT originate in or around Israel and they will laugh at you. Finally, try telling the rest of the populous that the war is coming and they will immediately dismiss you as one of those “The End Is Near” crazy sign holders with a free WI-FI connection.

Nevertheless, it is a book that I had to write in order to save the very few who will pay attention.   For others, I have a quick message. If you are closed minded enough to dismiss the message in this book purely on religious grounds or from a vantage point of sheer terror, I demand that you put this book down and move on.  There is no point in reading it. It will bring nothing but frustration and anger into your life.  Then email me at alex@investwithalex.com with a proof of purchase and I will gladly refund the entire amount (direct purchases only, not Amazon).

In essence, I have no desire to argue with people about the validity of my forecasts. My work speaks for itself and I hope you will see that throughout the book.  Finally, before you assume that I am sort of a doomsayer seeking to build some sort of a cult following, understand something very important. I am a very well to do and generally very happy. I do not have any interest in doom and gloom, I am simply reporting what my work indicates. As such, please don’t contact me or seek further guidance in regards to this report. Simply be aware that this is coming down the pipeline and decide what plan of action is best for your entire family.

“The Future”
I AM, and you are not, most likely my brothers and sisters
Soon, the Earth shall shake and roar in my honor
Shaking the dead weight and dirt of its surface
Draining the blood of the wicked and greedy
Purifying the oceans and the human spirit
Remain in your sleep you no longer my brothers and sisters
Open thy eyes and bask in my light
Open thy ears and hear my thunder
Open thy mouth and taste bitter ashes
Rejoice as the night is now over and the new morning is here
Join with my spirit and prosper forever
No One Can Stop Me

– Universal Consciousness

II thought long and hard whether or not I should publish this report and information. After careful consideration I have figured that if this information saves just one life and/or one family, it’s worth it.

Report Summary: I plan to spend the 2029-2040 time frame at my beach house on one of the Islands somewhere in the South Pacific as the

  • Coalition of NATO Members and
  • Russia/China Alliance

…..NUKE each other back to the stone age.

Now, before you assume that I am sort of a doomsdayer seeking to build some sort of a cult following, understand something very important. I am a very well to do and generally very happy. I do not have any interest in doom and gloom, I am simply reporting what my work indicates.

I have learned a long time ago that I cannot change violent human nature NOR future. As such, please don’t contact me or seek guidance in regards to this report. Simply be aware that this is coming down the pipeline and decide what plan of action is best for your family and yourself.

The Bible calls this period Armageddon, graphically describing its aftermath in the Book of Revelation.  Fortunately or unfortunately, I was able to figure out the exact time frame of this occurrence. By accident I might add. This report is to show you exactly why, how and when things will unfold.

I first became aware of the subject matter at hand during my research and analysis of future stock market cycles. After years of work with cycles and getting a fairly good understanding of the stock market composition (giving me the ability to predict the stock market with incredible accuracy) I came across something that puzzled me. When I got into the early 2030’s something crazy happened.

After a strong run up (due to inflation, not fundamentals) the stock market proceeded to collapse to the tune of 90-95% within a 2 weeks time frame. At first, I thought that I got some of my calculations wrong, but after some verification my original work was confirmed. Which brought out an incredibly important question.

What can collapse the Dow Jones 90-95% within a two week period of time?

confused guy

I knew that it had to be something big. Such drops are unprecedented in the history of the stock market. As a matter of fact, it had never happened before. Even the 1929-32 collapse of 90% took 3 years to play out. So, what the hell could cause such a meltdown?

Sure, a natural catastrophe, an earthquake, giant tidal wave, meteor strikes, etc….are all a possibility. However, we are not talking about a specific region. We are talking about the entire stock market which represents every corner of Americana as a whole.  Some sort of a war is always a possibility, but for the market to collapse to such an extent so rapidly, it would have to be a nuclear war.

Is that even possible in today’s world?

I had to find an answer and so began my research into the subject matter. Using the same cyclical analysis I use for the stock market work, it wasn’t long before I found my answers. What I found shocked me to the core. The nuclear war is indeed coming. It will be fought between 2029-2032 and it will literally destroy the world and impact every human being on the face of the Earth, one way or another.  What I find fascinating, is that today’s macroeconomic and geopolitical developments are already lining up for what is to come.

This report is to show you exactly what will transpire over the next 20 years and what you can do to in order protect yourself.

WHEN?  

Every significant* American war has been fought exactly 84 years apart. Based on my work this is not a coincidence.  Let’s take a look.

(*Significant can mean many things. In this case, it’s the % of casualties based on total population).

Revolutionary War: Started in 1776.  Total American Casualties (killed and wounded) 50,000. 1.25% of population. Total US Population at the time…. 4 Million (including 700K slaves).

EXACTLY 84 YEARS LATER—————-

Civil War: Started in 1860. Total American Casualties (killed and wounded) 1.1 Million  3.2% of population. Total US Population at the time…31 Million (12.7% are slaves).

EXACTLY 84 YEARS LATER————————

World War II: For the US the war technically started on December 7th, 1941 with the attack on Pearl Harbor, but the US suffered the highest % of casualties in 1944. Exactly 84 years from the previous cycle.  Total American Casualties (killed and wounded) 1.05 Million. 0.7% of population. Total US Population at the time 132 Million.

EXACTLY 84 YEARS LATER  (NATO Vs. Russia/China)——————-

nato vs russia

World War III. 2029-2032. Nuclear War. The war will be fought between NATO Members and Russia/China Coalition. Massive casualties. Most major cities or population centers with +1 Million people throughout the world will be Nuked.

(***Please note, I am very well aware that there were many wars in between the wars described above. World War I, Vietnam War, Korean War, Iraq/Afghanistan, etc… They do not count because they were not major wars. Even though tens of thousands of people have died, as per % of population such losses were small. For example, the total number of casualties in Vietnam (killed and wounded) were 200,000 or 0.01% of US Population at the time. Now, compare that to massive losses as per % of population in the wars described above. )

Why Do I Believe This Will Be A Nuclear War? 

My study shows that the weapon that were “brand new” at the preceding 84 cycle war are used on a massive scale during the next war. For instance, machine guns (Gatling Gun) were first introduced during the Civil War in 1861. Subsequently, they were used during the World War II on a massive scale, inflicting a devastating casualty count.

As you know, the first Atomic Bomb (Little Boy) was used by the US on Hiroshima on August 6, 1945. Followed by Nagasaki on August 9th. If we take 84 years from those dates, it will bring us into the summer of 2029. Whether or not that’s the exact date…….I refuse to say. A date of 2029-2032 is sufficient enough for our purpose.

Please note, there will be a multitude of signs right before the nuclear war starts. These sort of things do not happen in the vacuum and/or out of the blue. There will be plenty of news during that period of time that will allow you to narrow down the time frame and hopefully to save your family and yourself.

PART II

WHY

All wars repeat in cycles. In Part I of this report, I have shown you the major war cycle associated with all of the MAJOR American Wars. Unfortunately, the war is coming and cannot be stopped. Based on my stock market work, future is predetermined and cannot be altered.

Fundamental Reasons: 

Let’s take a look at North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). 

nato1

NATO is a military alliance organization that consists of 28 countries. You can see the full list HERE.  It’s membership consists mostly of the EU countries and North America. Obviously, the US is the largest superpower, force multiplier and policy driver. More or less, the treaty works as follows. If any of the NATO members are attacked, all other members must provide military support, assistance and equipment. Basically, if any of the member states are attacked, the entire NATO goes to war. NATO was originally created to counterbalance Soviet Russia after WW II.

Political Reasons:

You don’t have to go very far to see the tension between Russia and the US  -OR- China and the US. Just turn the TV on. As I write this today, the relationship between Russia and the US has cooled to the point we haven’t seen since the 1980’s, before the Soviet Union broke up. All because of Ukraine. Whether or not the situation in Ukraine has been caused by the US or Russia is outside the scope of this discussion.

The major point I want you to understand here is this. Russia is fed up with the US due to NATO’s expansion right up to its borders. Plus, the US keeps lecturing Russia on what to do and how to do it. Since no one likes being lectured, Putin is not only fed up with the US foreign policy, he is furious with it. His speech on March 18th, 2014 proves that without a shadow of a doubt.

vladimir_putin1

With that said, we can anticipate Putin to be in power in Russia for as long as he wants. For as long as the US continues with it’s policy against Russia (and I don’t see it changing anytime soon) our relationship with Russia will continue to deteriorate.

China finds itself in a very similar situation. If you have ever been to China, you very well know that Chinese are very proud people. Just as Americans are. Yet, America cannot help itself but to shove it’s god given “Righteousness”, democracy and politics down Chinese throats. I can tell you this. This infuriates the Chinese to no end. Plus, China is trying to build a military superpower in the region only to be constantly undermined by the US with the help of Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines. Again, who is right or wrong here is outside the scope of this discussion.

The bottom line is this, both Russia and China are fed up with the US at this point in time. Further, given today’s geopolitical and macroeconomic situation I see no reason for the situation to improve. Quite the opposite. I see the US relationship with both countries deteriorating further as all 3 superpowers fight for their own interests.

china russia love investwithalex

If you didn’t know, China and Russia are both “communist” countries that go way back. In fact, until China started selling crap to the US, it was always expected that China and Russia would stand together. Vietnam War, North Korea, Communism Ideology, etc…. In fact, it wouldn’t be wrong to describe China and Russia as having a “brotherly” relationship. You see the evidence of that at the United Nations, where Russia and China tend to support each other on important international issues.

In Summary: Both China and Russia are fed up with the US. On multiple levels. As the US and China/Russia relationship continues to deteriorate over the next 10-15 years, Russia and China will, once again, be forced to form an alliance. With the US/NATO flexing its military muscles, the alliance between Russia and China will eventually become a military alliance similar to NATO.

Economic Reasons: 

Most wars are triggered by economics, not ideology.  For example, Civil War was fought over cotton trade, not slavery…..Revolutionary War was fought over excessive taxes…not British rule and WWII was triggered by economic depression and war repatriations in Germany in the 1920s and the 1930s.

So, if you haven’t noticed the US owes China $1.3 Trillion. With the US National Debt at over $17 Trillion, the US is one recession away from not being able to cover its interest payments. In a nutshell, we don’t have the money to repay the Chinese. The only way out of this mess is for the US is to inflate its currency away. The FEDs have been trying to do just that over the last 10 years. Thus far, without too much success, due to a number of deflationary forces within the economy.

Based on my timing and mathematical work, that is about to change. The FED will be successful in getting inflation going after 2017. Slow at first, much faster after 2022. Basically, they will be able to inflate away the Chinese $1.3 Trillion or more.

This might not be a problem if China didn’t face a massive economic slowdown over the next decade. It’s own bear market so to speak. Chinese leaders will need someone to blame in front of their population and since the US will inflate its $1.3 Trillion away, China will point its finger where it belongs. Rightfully so. Of course, this will cause massive friction with China. In fact, I see this economic issue as the major trigger point that will eventually set this war off.

That is why I view macroeconomic and geopolitical issues between China/Russia and the USA/NATO as a major trigger point. You will see most of the issues I talk about come into light over the next few years. They will not get better. They will continue to deteriorate further from this point on.

HOW

This section will be a pure speculation, but we have a good reference point.

Looking at the Cuban Missile Crisis in the 1960 provides us with a perfect example. If you study the incident, Soviet Union and the US literally came a few minutes away from blowing each other up. The bombers were already in the air and both nations had their finger on the proverbial red button.  The scary part was, if one sailor or one pilot or one soldier would have made a simple mistake at that juncture….as simple as accidentally firing their gun…..we would have had a nuclear war in the 1960. And that’s the most important thing to remember.

kennedy investwithalex

It is difficult to predict exactly what will happen and how things will unfold, but we will eventually end up with some sort of a standoff between Russia/China Vs. USA/NATO. During that standoff a number of small skirmishes might eventually turn into an all out war and shortly thereafter, into a nuclear war.  A trigger might be as simple as a short firefight between a Chinese and an American soldier.

At the end of the day, it doesn’t really matter what actually triggers it, the point is, the war will be triggered one way or another. 

WHO WILL WIN?

No one will win. If the above scenario comes to fruition, as my stock market work indicates, billions (not millions) of people will die.  No one wins in a situation like that.  Most population centers throughout the world (particularly in China, Russia and the US) will be radioactive wastelands. Who cares who wins. Humanity as a whole will lose. Big time.

WHAT YOU SHOULD DO

You have a number of options.

1.  You can dismiss me as a crazy person and that is totally fine by me. I will have a beer for you while sitting on a beautiful beach somewhere in the South Pacific as the War starts.

2. You can save this report and start watching macroeconomic and geopolitical developments over the next 10 years. What you will find is that this report was right on the money. You will see the US relationship with Russia/China deteriorate significantly over the next 10-15 years. You will also see China and Russia coming together and forming a military alliance. At that stage you will have two options.

  • Do nothing. You will eventually get vaporized or otherwise killed during the war.
  • Get away from major population centers and become self sufficient. Same applies to your family. Make sure you can protect yourself as well as sustain your family over a 10 year period of time.

Good luck everyone. We will need it.

Asian Markets Take A Beating

With Asian markets and copper taking a severe beating overnight, is this a simple correction or a start of a new trend? In our view, this is the beginning of the end for this expansion cycle in both the emerging markets and the US. China sitting on a massive pile of dirty debt, miss allocation and a massive speculative bubble in real estate, Japan’s Abenomics are about to backfire and the US is completing it’s bull market cycle as we speak. In short, the future looks bleak. While this will not be a directional move, expect this trend to continue over the next few years.  

asian markets investwithalex

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Asian Markets Take A Beating  Google

Ongoing worries over China’s economy weighed Asian equity markets down on Wednesday, while overnight losses on Wall Street further ignited a flight-to-safety.

Copper was given the spotlight for the day as prices fell to their lowest level in nearly four years overnight. Selling was intensified by worries about cooling Chinese demand and the liquidation of inventories used for finance deals.

Tai Hui, Chief Market Strategist Asia at J.P. Morgan Funds, told CNBC’s Asia Squawk Box, “The timing of this volatility coincided with a level of pessimism on China that we haven’t seen for quite some time.

(Read moreTraders watch to see why copper getting scorched)

“As a result, people are starting to backtrack every step along the way. In that sense, the collateral use of copper, steel and iron may be more of a negative story in the near term,” he added.

Wall Street shares declined on Tuesday on commodity jitters, while concerns about Ukraine lingered and investors awaited signals on the state of the economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.4 percent, while the S&P 500 shed 0.5 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 0.6 percent.

  Name Price   Change %Change
NIKKEI Nikkei 225 Index 14830.39
 
-393.72 -2.59%
HSI Hang Seng Index 21901.95
 
-367.66 -1.65%
ASX 200 S&P/ASX 200 5384.20
 
-29.64 -0.55%
SHANGHAI Shanghai Composite Index 1997.69
 
-3.46 -0.17%
KOSPI KOSPI Index 1932.54
 
-31.33 -1.60%
CNBC 100 CNBC 100 ASIA IDX 6963.23
 
-109.99 -1.55%

 

74% Of Americans Believe The US Is Still In Recession

That’s staggering. Just think about it. The stock market is up over 150%, the FEDs expanded their balance sheet by over $1 Trillion, the real estate market is enjoying its “dead cat bounce”, the unemployment is down to 6.6%….yet 74% of Americans believe we are still in recession. Of course, the gains we have seen over the last 5 years have disproportionately benefited the rich due to their access to cheap credit and their ability to speculate.  

The question is, what happens when the US actually falls back into a severe recession of 2014-2017 that we are predicting here? (Based on our timing and mathematical work) 

Will the Amercian public finally turn off the “American Idol” or “The Biggest Loser” and start asking questions about the US Economy and who is responsible? That would be nice, but I have my doubts. Even some of the most sophisticated investors that I talk to do not have a grasp of what is happening within our economy or our financial markets.  As such, I would expect this cycle of boom, bust, money print, boom, bust, money print…..to continue for the foreseeable future. 

americans - inveswithalex

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74% Of Americans Believe The US Is Still In Recession Google

 

Seventy-four percent of Americans believe that the nation is still in a recession, which may be a sign that the lower and middle classes are still anxious about unemployment, the value of their homes and stagnant wages.

 

In a new Fox News poll, when asked “For you and your family, does it feel like the recession is over, or does it feel like the country is still in a recession?” only 22% said they believed the downturn had ended. The 74% is better than the 86% from the poll in September 2010, but only barely, if the “improvements” in gross domestic product and unemployment rates are taken into account.

The results are troubling if people’s beliefs affect their behavior. It has been assumed that as unemployment fells and home prices made a modest recovery, Americans would become more likely to be aggressive consumers. But recent data tell otherwise. Holiday sales were poor by most measures. There is little sign that the median household income of Americans has moved much above the $51,000 that the Census Bureau reported for 2012, and in real dollars this is down from a decade ago. A recent Pew study found that:

But starting in the mid- to late 1970s, the uppermost tier’s income share began rising dramatically, while that of the bottom 90% started to fall. The top 1% took heavy hits from the dot-com crash and the Great Recession but recovered fairly quickly: according to Emmanuel Saez, an economics professor at UC-Berkeley, preliminary estimates for 2012 (which will be updated next month) have that group receiving nearly 22.5% of all pretax income, while the bottom 90%’s share is below 50% for the first time ever (49.6%, to be precise).

While there is no direct link between the two studies, the results from the Pew research may help explain the Fox News poll results. Apparently, many Americans feel left behind whatever recovery has happened — or they do not believe the recovery ever happened at all. 

IPO Insanity

Earlier today I wrote about the IPO Market and how 74% of all IPO’s are not making any money. You can see that blog post here. Here is the visual representation of the same for your consideration. As they say, sometimes picture is worth a thousand words. If you are playing in the IPO market I hope this chart will force you to reconsider. 

ipo market investwithalex

Stock Market Update. March 11th, 2014

Daily Chart March 11, 2014 investwithalex

3/11/2014 – A fairly strong down day with the Dow Jones down -67 points (-0.41%) and the Nasdaq down -27 points (-0.63%). 

There is now a noticeable divergence developing between the Nasdaq and the Dow. With the Nasdaq breaking an important short-term low around 4,310…. indicating further downside to close the gap that was opened up on March 3rd at around 4,280. While the Dow is hesitant to follow just yet, the next few days are incredibly important for short term market developments. 

Plus, while the long-term picture and trend remain incredibly bullish it is not indicative of where the market is today. As I have mentioned many times on this blog, we are fast approaching an inflection point where this fast moving 5-year bull market will very soon turn into a vicious bear market of 2014-2017. To read the full report on the upcoming bear market please Click Here and select our stock market report.  

If you would be interested in finding out the exact composition and timing for the upcoming bear market, please Click Here.  

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Stock Market Update. March 11th, 2014 Google

The Secret To Beating The Market & The Street.

wealth-investwithalex

Just give it up. You are not going to be able to do it. Why? Here is why…

“Virtu, a high tech, high frequency trader, makes markets in more than 10,000 securities across 210 exchanges. According to the Virtu S1, in 2013 it had revenues of $664.5 million and net income of $182 million. Virtu said it ”had only one losing trading day during the period depicted, a total of 1,238 trading days.”

Let that sink in for a second. These guys had 1 losing trading day over the last 5 years and that is who you are competing against. How is that possible? Well, in this particular case the market is rigged as Virtu is able to make a few pennies here and there with no risk. Eventually, those pennies add up to massive gains as the article above indicates. And that’s who you are competing against. Day in and day out. 

Well, that’s not entirely true. There are a few things you can do to come out on top. 

  1. Just invest an index fund and forget about it. Keep adding money on a fixed schedule, keep the cost low and you will come out way ahead. 
  2. Become a Warren Buffett type of a stock picker. Takes a lot of work, but anyone can do it. 
  3. Become a market timer. If you can predict what the stock market is going to do you going to be able to minimize risk while setting yourself up for over sized returns. 

While we used to do #2, we now specialize in #3. If you would like to learn more, please Click Here

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The Secret To Beating The Market & The Street Google

Unprofitable IPOs Don’t Scare Investors…Great

As WSJ reports, 74% of all IPO’s today are not making any money and/or are not profitable. Guess when that happened before?  That’s right, right before the 2000 Nasdaq collapse. 

But don’t worry. It’s different this time. After all, the investors are “NOT Scared” this time around….whatever that means.  This is just another indication that the bear market is about to start and destroy bulls. Particularly, those playing in the IPO market. Earlier today I posted a good “Short List” that should get you started. 

Since January of this year I have argued that the Dow Jones topped out on December 31st 2013 at 16,588. We continue to maintain this position as it is based on our precise mathematical and timing work. With the Dow pushing this level again, it is up to you to figure out what happens next. However, if you would like an exact breakdown and bear market composition of (2014-2017) please Click Here.  

ipo investwithalex

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Unprofitable IPOs Don’t Scare Investors…Great Google

A hot IPO market isn’t necessarily an optimistic development for the aging bull market.

Companies are going public at a pace reminiscent of the 1990s Internet heyday, a positive sign for young companies aiming to cash in on the rallying stock market. But analysts say the underlying mix of companies rushing to go public represents a warning sign for the stock rally.

Some 74% of companies that went public over the past six months weren’t profitable, the highest level since March 2000 when about four out of five new companies were money-losers, according to Jason Goepfert, founder of Sundial Capital Research and author of the SentimenTrader Daily Report. That same month, the Nasdaq Composite peaked before tumbling into a deep bear market as the dot-com bubble burst.

Since 1990, 42% of companies that have gone public, on average, haven’t been profitable, Mr. Goepfert says. In the early-to-mid 1990s less than 1/3 of these companies didn’t generate profits. This percentage rose through the tech bubble, fell afterward and rose again through the 2007 market peak before tumbling to as low as 15% in October 2009, seven months after the bear-market bottom.

In the past several years the percentage of unprofitable companies going public has hovered predominantly between 55% and 65%. It moved back above 70% early last month.

“This kind of behavior is troubling,” Mr. Goepfert said. “Not only do we have a willing public market ready to provide capital to these companies, but in many cases these are instances of professional investors selling their claims to a less-sophisticated public,” he added.

The list of newly minted money-losing public companies in the past six months includes microblogging platform Twitter Inc. and cybersecurity firm FireEye Inc.FEYE -0.08%Twitter shares have more than doubled off the IPO price; FireEye has more than quadrupled.

Investors don’t seem too perturbed by the trend. If anything, recent IPOs boast better returns than the broader market. The average U.S. IPO this year rose 19% from its debut through Feb. 28, and 5% from where it closed after its first day of trading, according to Dealogic. The S&P 500 index, meanwhile, has edged only slightly higher for the year.

To be sure, the IPO market has a long way to go before reaching tech-bubble levels. In the first two months of this year, 42 companies went public in the U.S., compared to 77 in the same period in 2000, according to Dealogic.

That’s why many stock investors aren’t willing to turn bearish right now.

In his weekly commentary, BlackRock strategist Russ Koesterich didn’t sound enamored with stocks, but he still considered them to be better than other alternatives.

“To start, we would say equities are no longer cheap and that stronger economic growth will be needed to drive earnings and prices higher,” he said. “But we do believe stock prices are more likely to head higher rather than lower from here,” Mr. Koesterich added, while cash investments “are effectively paying nothing, and traditional areas of the bond market offer little return after factoring in the effects of inflation and taxes.”

Even with a pricey stock market and an increasingly frothy IPO market, the fact that inflation and interest rates are low and the economy is gradually improving offers “sound arguments for overweighting stocks,” he says.

Morning MoneyBeat Daily Factoid: On this day in 1888, a brutal blizzard smacked the Northeast, resulting in a shutdown of communication and transportation lines along the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard. More than 400 people died from the storm.

Ukraine Wants The US To Get Into A War With Russia

Why are we supporting these idiots again? Oh, right, freedom, liberty and justice for all. Especially the Ukrainians who would like nothing more but to get America involved into yet another war that would cost the lives of thousands of American soldiers. Right…..

The new and illegitimate Ukrainian government makes it very clear. They want the US to interfere militarily. I hope no one in our administration is even considering this action. Doing so would trigger a massive war with Russia. I guarantee you that. Plus, any war with Russia would be a little bit more difficult than blowing up a 1984 Toyota Pickup full of Taliban fighters. 

It is time the US stops meddling in the business of other countries and starts paying attention to the US Economy and our own future.  

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Ukraine forms new defense force, seeks Western help

KIEV/SEVASTOPOL (Reuters) – Ukraine’s interim leaders established a new National Guard on Tuesday and appealed to the United States and Britain for assistance against what they called Russian aggression in Crimea under a post-Cold War treaty.

Blaming their ousted predecessors for the weakness of their own armed forces, acting ministers told parliament Ukraine had as few as 6,000 combat-ready infantry and that the air force was outnumbered nearly 100 to 1 by Moscow’s superpower forces.

There was no let-up in the war of words, with the pro-Russian regional parliament in Crimea approving a declaration of independence that will take effect if people on the Black Sea peninsula vote to unite with Russia in a referendum on Sunday.

The national parliament in Kiev said it would dissolve the Crimean assembly if it did not cancel the plebiscite.

Viktor Yanukovich, whose overthrow last month after protests triggered the gravest crisis in Europe since the Cold War, insisted from his refuge in Russia that he was still Ukraine’s legitimate president and commander of its armed forces.

Lavrov: Russia has proposals to resolve Ukrainian  …Play video

Lavrov: Russia has proposals to resolve Ukrainian  …

Acting Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk, who will visit the White House and United Nations Security Council this week, said a 1994 treaty under which Ukraine agreed to give up its Soviet nuclear weapons obliged Russia to remove troops from Crimea and also obliged Western powers to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty.

He said a failure to protect Ukraine would undermine efforts to persuade Iran or North Korea to forswear nuclear weapons as Kiev did 20 years ago. The terms of the Budapest Memorandum oblige Russia, Britain and the United States as guarantors to seek U.N. help for Ukraine if it faces attack by nuclear weapons.

DISARMAMENT PACT

Parliament passed a resolution calling on the United States and Britain, co-signatories with Russia of that treaty to “fulfill their obligations … and take all possible diplomatic, political, economic and military measures urgently to end the aggression and preserve the independence, sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine”.

NATO powers – and the authorities in Kiev – have made clear they want to avoid a military escalation with Moscow, which has denied its troops are behind the takeover of Crimea 10 days ago by separatist forces – a denial ridiculed by other governments.

U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine: Discussion “over& …Play video

U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine: Discussion "over" …

The European Union and United States have been preparing sanctions against Russia, though with some reluctance, especially in Europe, which values commercial ties with Moscow.

Direct diplomacy has stalled this week. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry turned down an invitation to Moscow until Russia modifies its stance. Ukrainian premier Yatsneniuk said he had been unable to reach either Russian President Vladimir Putin or Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev for the past five days.

Russia says the overthrow of Yanukovich was a coup backed by the West and that it has the right to defend the interests of the ethnic Russian majority in Crimea, a territory of two million that the Kremlin transferred from Russia to Ukraine at a time when the collapse of the Soviet state was unthinkable.

NATO AWACs surveillance planes were beginning flights over Poland and Romania to monitor events in Ukraine and the U.S. navy was preparing for exercises in the Black Sea with NATO allies Bulgaria and Romania over the next few days.

Yatseniuk, who said he supported efforts to set up a “contact group” of major powers to resolve the crisis, accused Russia of seeking to undermine the world security system:

Russians rally in Moscow to support annexation of  …Play video

Russians rally in Moscow to support annexation of  …

“This is not a two-sided conflict. These are actions by the Russian Federation aimed at undermining the system of global security,” he told parliament.

NATIONAL GUARD

Acting president Oleksander Turchinov said the National Security and Defence council had decided to raise a new National Guard among veterans. He accused Yanukovich of leaving the military in such a poor state that it had to be built “effectively from scratch”.

The acting defence minister said Ukraine had not been prepared for military confrontation with Russia. Having mobilized its forces, he said the country had only 6,000 combat-ready infantry out of a nominal infantry force of 41,000 -compared to over 200,000 Russian troops on its eastern borders.

Turchinov warned against provoking Russian action, saying that would play into Moscow’s hands. The National Guard, based on existing Interior Ministry forces, would “defend citizens from criminals and from internal or external aggression”.

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An armed man, believed to be Russian serviceman, is …

An armed man, believed to be Russian serviceman, is seen in an armoured military vehicle outside a U …

A partial mobilization would begin of volunteers drawn from those with previous military experience, he said.

Yatseniuk said the government was doing all it could to finance pay and equipment for the armed forces, but that Kiev needed help from Western guarantors of its security.

Western powers have been careful to note that Ukraine, not being a member of NATO, has no automatic claim on the alliance to defend it. But Yatseniuk said the principles of its 1994 nuclear disarmament pact entitled it to expect assistance.

“What does the current military aggression of the Russian Federation on Ukrainian territory mean?” he said.

“It means that a country which voluntarily gave up nuclear weapons, rejected nuclear status and received guarantees from the world’s leading countries is left defenseless and alone in the face of a nuclear state that is armed to the teeth.

“I say this to our Western partners: if you do not provide guarantees, which were signed in the Budapest Memorandum, then explain how you will persuade Iran or North Korea to give up their status as nuclear states.”