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The Secret Behind The Wealthiest 0.01%

Belfast Telegrapsh Writes: Combined wealth of the 85 richest people is equal to that of poorest 3.5 billion

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The wealth of the 85 richest people equals that of half the world’s population, says development charity Oxfam.

Global inequality has increased to the extent that the £1 trillion combined wealth of the 85 richest people is equal to that of the poorest 3.5 billion – half of the world’s population – according to a new report from development charity Oxfam.

Oxfam chief executive Winnie Byanyima said: “It is staggering that in the 21st century, half of the world’s population – that’s three and a half billion people – own no more than a tiny elite whose numbers could all fit comfortably on a double-decker bus.

“We cannot hope to win the fight against poverty without tackling inequality. Widening inequality is creating a vicious circle where wealth and power are increasingly concentrated in the hands of a few, leaving the rest of us to fight over crumbs from the top table.

“In developed and developing countries alike we are increasingly living in a world where the lowest tax rates, the best health and education and the opportunity to influence are being given not just to the rich but also to their children.

Read The Rest Of The Article

Indeed, this is staggering. Just think about it for a second. Just 85 of the wealthiest people control the same amount of wealth as the poorest 3.5 Billion – half of world’s population.

At least a part of me wants to say, “So what?  Work your ass off and become part of the elite.”  Yet, after starting a number of businesses and being a part of the investment community,  I now know it is a lot easier said than done.  It takes favorable circumstances and luck to get anywhere close to that level. In other words, for most of us, approaching the pinnacle of wealth is nothing but a pipe dream.

That is why I am starting to shift my point of view towards the view shared by both Warren Buffett and Bill Gates. They argue that the taxation structure in place is disproportionately setup to favor the rich. That should not be a surprise to anyone as the system is setup by the rich.  The problems begin when we have a situation where 85 people control more wealth than the lowest 3.5 billion people.  It’s bad on two fronts. 

First, it stagnates the economy. The accumulated wealth held by so very few people is not being properly allocated to benefit the overall economy. For the most part, it just sits there accumulating interest. Second, it creates social unrest. If history teaches us anything, eventually, this type of a “social setup” leads to revolutions or worst, wars.

What is the answer? I am not sure, but this cannot continue over an extended period of time.  Some changes must occur. 

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The Secret Behind The Wealthiest 0.01%

Timed Value Introduction

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As time went on in 2004 and 2005 I was increasingly frustrated. I was working incredibly hard, but my investment returns were not reflecting the fact. If anything, I was starting to underperform while the market was surging higher. I had big problem on my hands.  After a lot of fundamental research I have determined that the real estate sector as well as the mortgage finance sector are set for a significant decline. Not just any kind of a decline, a once in a lifetime blow up.  After reading and analyzing at least 100 annual reports I was sure of it. The “subprime” mortgage companies I was looking at were essentially bankrupt. I was sure the market will soon see the same and reward me with outsized returns.

I was wrong. Instead promptly collapsing the companies in question kept surging higher. Day after day, month after month and year after year. I could not wrap my head around it. There I was, looking at clear evidence that the “sub primers” in question are nothing more than a giant Ponzi Scheme , yet Mr. Market was rewarding them with ever increasing stock prices. That was my first clue that while the in-depth fundamental analysis can show me WHAT will happen with great accuracy, it fairly useless in identifying WHEN it will happen.  It was not until 3 years later that the said companies did collapse in a spectacular fashion. Some losing $70-50 per share price within a 2 week period of time and then immediately filling for bankruptcy (summer of 2008).

I was right on the money, yet my timing work was way off.  That lead me to spend a considerable amount of time searching for market timing solutions that work.  If I can somehow identify the “WHEN” portion of the equitation, my investment returns should surge.  It wasn’t long after I started that I came across the article below. It was a life changing revelation that showed that I can use modern science to predict the timing of individual stocks and the overall stock market with great accuracy. It was a life changing understanding and I had to explore it further.

(***I highly encourage you to read the article in its entirety to form your own opinion.  The Ticker and Investment Digest was later renamed  “The Wall Street Journal”).  

To Be Continued Tomorrow…..

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Real Estate. Buy or Run Away?

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Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics and is in direct response to one of my readers questions, “What are  your views on real estate? Is right now a good time to buy?” – Roman J. 

    • The truth about real estate. 
    • What is the real reason behind real estate rebound.  
    • The shocking truth of what will happen to real estate over the next decade. 
    • What you should do now and why it will save you a ton of money. 

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Why Does Goldman Sachs Hates Your Money?

 

CNBC Writes: ‘No bubble troubles’ in stock market, declares Goldman Sachs

 

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Goldman Sachs thinks talk of financial bubbles is misguided, and the firm is encouraging its wealthy clients to keep their money in relatively expensive sectors such as U.S. technology stocks and high-yield bonds.

“Stay fully invested—we don’t have bubble troubles yet,” Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, chief investment officer for the bank’s investment strategy group, said at a press briefing in New York last week.

The firm likes several relatively pricey sectors. One is U.S. technology stocks, based on strong corporate free cash flows and prospects for corporate earnings growth. The Dow Jones U.S. Technology Index has gained about 141 percent over the past five years. 

Maybe Goldman Sachs clients are too rich for their own good and are in need of a good haircut. That is exactly what they are going to get if they listed to Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani. Instead of being risk averse she wants them to pile into highly speculative Tech stocks? You can’t make this stuff up.

The article continues,  “But she reiterated the four reasons Goldman believes equities are not in bubble territory, as outlined in a recent strategy report: Credit growth is not excessive; investors are just beginning to get back into U.S. stocks; views on the U.S. are not yet overly bullish; and stock valuations have not raced too far ahead”.

Let’s take a look at each point individually.

1. Credit Growth Is Not Excessive.  Are you kidding me? Total market debt as a % of GDP stands at 370%.  The highest in the history of mankind. As a reference point, 1929 this same indicator was at just 280% of GDP. We all know what happened thereafter. Plus, the FED is printing/monetizing $85 Billion per month to add liquidity to the market. There are credit bubbles everywhere (mortgage, student loans, credit cards, even car loans) and Goldman Sachs has the balls to claim that credit growth is not excessive? Unbelievable. 

2. Investors are just beginning to get back into US stocks: I am not sure what “investors” she is talking about, but the market is up over 150% in 5 years. If they are getting back in “just now” they are dumb and this should be used as a contrary indicator.   

3. Views on the US are not yet overly bullish: Once again, views by whom? If you take a look at the bullish sentiment indicator, it is sitting close to an all time high. That is above 2000 and 2007 levels. Plus, everyone (media, financial advisors, investors, etc…) are falling all over each other while predicting the market to go up in 2014. As far as I am concerned you can’t get more bullish than this.

4. Stock Valuations have not raced too far ahead: “Too Far” is the keyword. In a sense, Sharmin is admitting that valuations are indeed high. While this point is debatable based on your valuation metrics, personally, this market is incredibly expensive. At today’s prices I cannot find too many things (if anything) to invest in. 

The bottom line is as follows. The arguments Goldman Sachs makes are nonsense and without merit. Investors must clearly understand that before making their investment decisions. As I have said so many times before, my timing/mathematical work indicates a contrary position. The bear market is about to start and it will wreck havoc on the financial markets over the next 3 years. AKA….its time to protect yourself instead of buying up tech stocks.  

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Weekly Stock Market Update, January 18th ,2014

daily chart Jan18, 2014

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position. 

There has been no real change since last week. The market oscillated up and down, but finished the week relatively flat. 

As I have mentioned many times before, my advanced timing work showed a number of cycles arriving and rolling over in early January. That is the primary reason you are seeing the market stalling since the beginning of the year. While everyone else is incredibly excited about the market (overwhelming bullish attitude) we should be very careful here. Again, the market is overpriced and the next leg of the bear market will start shortly. I will provide an exact date as we get closer. 

Technically speaking, while the market is showing signs of a fatigue and a roll over, this is not yet the top.  Either way, we have to wait for a technical confirmation before reversing position. My previous updates and various fundamental issues associated with the market remain right on the money. Please click on the links below to see them. 

November 22nd Report

November 15th Report. 

November 8th Report.

November 1st Report.

As we continue to hold our long position while waiting for the market reversal, right now might be a good time to start thinking about how you would liquidate your holding and/or re-allocate your capital once the bear market of 2014-2017 starts.

If you would like to take it one step further, this is a good time to start researching SHORT opportunities.  

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 Weekly Stock Market Update, January 18th ,2014

Why You Should Love Bear Markets

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Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics: Why you should love bear markets.  

    • What makes bear markets so great.  
    • The secret behind making a large amount of money in the bear market.  
    • How bear markets can surge your investment returns. 
    • What everyone ought to know about bull and bear phases. 

Did you enjoy this podcast? If so, please review it on iTunes and share it with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Is 30-40% Unemployment The Future?

The Economist Writes: Coming to an office near you The effect of today’s technology on tomorrow’s jobs will be immense—and no country is ready for it

robotics and job distruction

INNOVATION, the elixir of progress, has always cost people their jobs. In the Industrial Revolution artisan weavers were swept aside by the mechanical loom. Over the past 30 years the digital revolution has displaced many of the mid-skill jobs that underpinned 20th-century middle-class life. Typists, ticket agents, bank tellers and many production-line jobs have been dispensed with, just as the weavers were….

Read The Rest Of The Article Here      

The article above is an interesting “must read” for anyone with a job. While I agree with the overall premise of the article they have missed a few significant points.

First, as productivity and technology improves over the next decade, what will happen to all of the “white collar jobs” that our economy used to, and to a certain extent, still supports. Will there be another advance, either technological or otherwise, that will eat up excess labor force as it did in the 21st century? That is a difficult question to answer. While I am looking incredibly hard to find some sort of a catalyst, as of right now, I don’t see anything. Maybe it will and maybe it won’t. However, the article is missing a few other points.

Robotics & Outsourcing: Having lived in Asia for a few years, I am here to tell you that outsourcing will take a large bite out of US labor force over the next few decades. Why should I hire an American and pay him at least $15/hour when I can pay a Filipino worker (who is just as good) $2.50/hour. This is basic economics. Plus, robotics are advancing so rapidly now that in many cases the cost of labor is being pushed into the $2/hour territory. I believe you would agree that such a cost will be pushed even lower over the next decade as the cost of technology drops further. Will anyone be able to compete with $0.50/hour robots?   

Finally, there is the question of the US Economy. As I have stated repeatedly on this blog, the state of the US Economy is dismal at best. The unemployment rate is being under reported. The recovery we have experienced thus far has been driven by nothing more than speculation and massive credit infusion. When it ends and the bear market starts, the unemployment rate will surge again. Sadly, I do not see any outcome to reverse my position.    

I know I have asked more questions than I have answered. Yet, a clear trend is evident. There is a tremendous amount of pressure on the US labor force. All of it is negative and none of it is going away anytime soon. If anything it will intensify over the next two decades.

So, is 30-40% unemployment rate possible? While it seems extreme, I wouldn’t rule it out. Anything is possible. Some sectors of Greek and Spanish economy are already there. One thing is for sure. Make yourself as valuable as possible so your job cannot be axed.

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

Is 30-40% Unemployment The Future? 

Daily Stock Market Update, January 17th, 2014

Daily Chart January 17 2014

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position.  

01/17/2014 – Slow day in the market. While the S&P and NASDAQ were both down to the tune of -0.50%, the DOW inched up 40 points or (+0.25%). As mentioned yesterday, the DOW closed the “DOWN GAP” that was originated on Thursday during the trading day today. We continue to be stuck in the trading range since the beginning of the year. According to my work this has to do with a number of cycles topping out on or around January 1st of this year. In other words, the powerful rally we have witnessed in the late 2013 is running out of steam. While the trend is still Bullish the market is starting to exhibit signs of a fatigue and an eventual roll over. Still, as of today, it is prudent to maintain our long position while we wait for a confirmation. Weekly summary coming up tomorrow.   

Daily Stock Market Update, January 16th, 2014

How To Make A Killing In The Stock Market

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Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics and is in direct response to one of my readers questions, “What do I have to do to make a killing in the stock market, fast?” – Robert Hitt

    • Your options and what no one else will tell you. 
    • The secret way to getting it done. 
    • How you should position yourself now. 
    • How big are you cojones? 

Did you enjoy this podcast? If so, please review it on iTunes and share it with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Did Bernanke Predict The Stock Market Crash?

bernanke meme

AP Writes: Bernanke likens ’08 financial crisis to car crash

WASHINGTON (AP) — In his final public appearance as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke took a moment to reflect on the 2008 financial crisis and compared it to surviving a bad car crash.

During an interview Thursday at the Brookings Institution, Bernanke recalled some “very intense periods” during the crisis, similar to trying to keep a car from going over a bridge after a collision.

The government had just taken over mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Lehman Brothers had collapsed. He recalled some sleepless nights working with others to try and contain the damage.

“If you’re in a car wreck or something, you’re mostly involved in trying to avoid going off the bridge. And then, later on, you say, ‘Oh my God!'” Bernanke said.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

An innocent car crash Mr. Bernanke? Just an accident? I guess that’s one way to look at it. There is another. How about getting so drunk that you drive your car into a pole.  

Of course, the above is an analogy for using entirely too much credit to propel our financial system and our underlying economy right after the Tech crash. As we know, that led to the housing bubble, the stock market bubble and the credit market bubble that all blew up in 2007-09. Now, you can’t blame Mr. Bernanke for that. For the most part, another “brilliant economist” under the name of Mr. Greenspan was responsible for the financial collapse we have all suffered during that time.

You can, however, blame Mr. Bernanke for what happened between 2007 and today. It seems like he took Mr. Greenspan’s playbook, squared it and then multiplied it by 100. By pumping a tremendous amount of credit into the system since the market meltdown of 2007-09 Mr. Bernanke upped the ante for any reasonable resolution to our current financial issues.

Make no mistake………..the current stock market, real estate and economic recovery has very little to do with the underlying fundamental economy and everything to do with massive infusion of credit into the financial system by the FED.

It is a speculative illusion at best. When the credit card is finally maxed out, there will be hell to pay. Based on my mathematical work we are just a few short months away from the start of the bear leg. Get yourself ready.

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