8/9/2018 – Another mixed day with the Dow Jones down 75 points (-0.29%) and the Nasdaq up 3 points (+0.04%)

Today’s market action was once again nearly ideal if we consider our overall forecast. If you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here

Now, let’s look at some scary charts……

We have argued for some time, based on numerous metrics, that today’s stock market is selling at its highest valuation level in history. Yes, going all the way back to May of 1790. The chart above presents us with yet another confirmation point of the same.

Having said that, you can nail this chart to a bull’s head and they will still argue that today’s market is undervalued and that FAANG stocks represent a wonderful buying opportunity.  Any more scary charts? I am glad you have asked.

In other words, while just TECH stocks were massively overpriced at 2000 top, today it is EVERYTHING BUBBLE. Perhaps that is the reason Warren Buffett is sitting on a massive cash pile while the rest of value investors are chasing “undervalued unicorns”. And if that wasn’t enough, there is this comparison……

Now, you don’t have to rely on the charts above to figure out what the stock market will do next. We have the exact answer you are looking for.  If you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our mathematical and timing work, please Click Here. 

8/7/2018 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 126 points (+0.50%) and the Nasdaq up 24 points (+0.31%) 

Something incredibly important happened on the Dow earlier in the day and no, we are not talking about Tesla.  If you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, please Click Here

We often talk about investor sentiment and how oversold/overbought the market is. And while no indicator is perfect, perhaps nothing tracks actual investor bullish/bearish sentiment better than the actual money, on the margin.

BLINKING RED BUBBLE LIGHT: Stock Market Investor Margin Debt Reaches New High

The world is standing at the edge of the financial abyss while most investors are entirely in the dark.  However, specific indicators suggest the market is one giant RED BLINKING LIGHT.  One of these indicators is the amount of margin debt held by investors.  What is quite surprising about the level of investor margin debt is that it has hit a new record high even though the market has sold off 2,500 points from its peak in February.

It seems as if investors no longer believe in market cycles or fundamentals. Instead, the Wall Street saying that “This time is different” has become permanently ingrained in the market psychology.  For example, it doesn’t seem to matter to the market that Amazon makes no money on its massive online retail business.  The only segment of Amazon’s business that made a decent profit last quarter was from its Cloud hosting services.

We have touched on this subject matter a few days ago. Some Scary Charts To Keep You Up At Night Over The Weekend. At that time we looked at this chart.

It is truly mind boggling to see how long and leveraged everyone is. When the market finally cracks, as it surely will, all of the red on the right hand side will act as jet fuel to the downside.

Luckily, our mathematical and timing work is clear in identifying exactly when that will happen. If you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, please Click Here

8/3/2018 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 39 points (+0.16%) and the Nasdaq up 47 points (+0.66%) 

The overall stock market finds itself at incredibly important juncture. Will it break out or will it face the so called and dreaded double top formation. If you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here

Elon Musk is finally cracking under enormous pressure of a giant Ponzi scheme known as Tesla (TSLA). A company that would be impossible without today’s monetary environment, stock market bubble and government handouts.

I hold no position in the stock (long or short), but crazy valuation aside, the bearish case for the company is very well known. Just Google “Bearish case for Tesla” and keep reading.

That is not the purpose of this writing. This is…..

Elon Musk: ‘Dang, turns out even Hitler was shorting Tesla stock’

Early Sunday, Musk tweeted a doctored scene from “Downfall,” a 2004 film about Adolf Hitler’s final days. In the actual clip, which has been parodied many times since its release, Hitler is yelling at his generals as Allied forces close in.

In the version posted by Musk, Hitler is a frantic fund manager who’s been caught on the wrong side of a Tesla trade. “If Tesla doesn’t go bankrupt soon, I’ll lose everything,” he says in one of the subtitles.

As for the short-sellers he so enjoys taunting, they were sitting on a paper loss of almost $2 billion after the spike, according to S3 Partners LLC, a company that has access to and tracks real-time short interest data.

Now, while Mr. Musk gloats in arguably a fraudulent earnings report Tesla Discloses Worst Quarterly Loss Ever, But Where Are the 17,000 Model 3 Cars it “Produced” But Didn’t “Deliver”? Where is the SEC?, some serious issues must be raised.

Chief among them being, the CEO of a highly overvalued and speculative company shouldn’t be making fun of well researched company shorts and/or attempting to crush them. He should let the market do it for him.

Instead, the story is always the same. Some egomaniac CEO pumped up on his own hubris starts believing his own BS and the rest, as they say, is history.

I don’t believe Pets.com CEO made fun of the short-sellers in early 2000, at least I don’t recall, but nearly everyone else did. From business leaders to professional money managers, all were lining up to make fun of the “stupid short sellers” that were about to get run over by the never ending bull market.

All of the above has to do with sentiment that is all too pervasive at the tops. Trust me, Mr. Musk wouldn’t be making fun of the short sellers if we were in a bear market. If I were him, I would worry about the massive gap ups his stock has left behind, including the one from last week.

Now, if you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, in both Price and Time, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here

A positive week with the Dow Jones up 11 points (+0.04%) and the Nasdaq up 75 points (+0.96%) 

At the initial glance it is easy to dismiss today’s market conditions as nothing more than the continuation of a bull market. At the very least, a consolidation. Yet, the situation is not that simple. Despite the Nasdaq/Russell sitting near their all time highs, the Dow and other indices are not following through. With the Dow & NYA remaining well below their January highs.

That is exactly what we discuss in our weekly analysis and explain why. Most importantly, we discuss what happens next, why and most importantly WHEN. If you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our mathematical and timing work, please Click Here

There are two very important things we have to consider this week.

First, The Fed Accelerates its QE Unwind

The FOMC, in its August 1 statement, mentioned “strong” five times in describing various aspects of the economy and the labor market – the most hawkish statement in a long time. Rate hikes will continue, and the pace might pick up. And the QE unwind will accelerate to final cruising speed and proceed as planned. The Fed stopped flip-flopping in the fall of 2016 and hasn’t looked back since.

When the economy eventually slows down enough to where the Fed feels like it needs to act, it will cut rates, but it will let the QE unwind proceed on automatic pilot toward “normalization,” whatever that will mean. That’s the stated plan. And the Fed will stick to it – unless something big breaks, such as credit freezing up again in the credit-dependent US economy, at which point all bets are off.

The above is incredibly important. This is the primary driver behind today’s “Everything Bubble” and what we see in the overall economy. Should QE and associated liquidity go away, so will exuberant prices. It is as simple as that.

On top of that not everything might be going as well as the establishment wants you to believe. Have you ever wondered why your wages are not going up if we are at full employment? If not, Paul Craig Roberts has done it for you.

Americans Live In A World Of Lies

The US government and the presstitutes that serve it continue to lie to us about everything. Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics told us that the unemployment rate was 3.9%. How can this be when the BLS also reports that the labor force participation rate has declined for a decade throughout the length of the alleged economic recovery and there is no upward pressure on wages from full employment. When jobs are plentiful, people enter the labor force to take advantage of the work opportunities. This raises the labor force participation rate. When employment is full—which is what a 3.9% unempoyment rate means—wages are bid up as employers compete for scarce labor. Full employment with no wage pressure and no rise in the labor force participation rate is impossible.

The 3.9% unemployment rate is not due to employment. It results from not counting discouraged workers who have ceased to search for jobs because there are no jobs to be had. If an unemployed person is not actively searching for a job, he is not counted as being in the labor force. The way the unemployment rate is measured makes it a hoax.

We highly encourage you to read the report above in full. It is full of gold and satire.

As a result, a very simple setup we have discussed here over the last few months remains.

The stock market is selling at its highest valuation level in history if we make adjustments for 2000 distortions. On top of that the FED is tightening, the yield curve is near inversion, liquidity is going away, deficits are surging, corporate earnings are peaking and if that wasn’t enough, President Trump is launching an unprecedented trade war against, well, nearly everyone.

Our work offers a very simple and somewhat shocking answer to what happens next. Based on our timing and mathematical work, of course. So, will the stock market continue its unlikely run higher or will it finally crash in a spectacular fashion? Please CLICK HERE to find out.