8/2/2018 – Another mixed day with the Dow Jones down 8 points (-0.03%) and the Nasdaq up 95 points (+1.24%) 

All in all, today was very positive for our overall forecast.

First, the market was able to …… If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our mathematical and timing work, in both price and time, please Click Here.  

As we have discussed here over the last few months, Trump’s trade war on nearly everyone is beyond idiotic. He is blaming the wrong people for the trade deficit. In fact, his stance is so wrong that it is equivalent to blaming the Jews for the holocaust during second World War.

The real culprits are the Federal Reserve for distorting our monetary policy to the 10th degree and the American corporations who manufacture overseas and then proceed to import the good into the country. The latter are responsible for 60% of the said trade deficit with China.

Here is another very good look at the subject matter…..

US Trade Policy: Not Only are We Stupid, We are Hypocrites

1. Let the Yuan slide 25% negating the tariffs.
2. Further limit US firms ability to do deals in China
3. Halt Rare Earth Exports. Rare earths are 17 minerals used to make cell phones, hybrid cars, weapons, flat-screen TVs, magnets, mercury-vapor lights, and camera lenses.

Option one has capital flight risks for China of course. But US tariffs pose numerous risks to the US and global economy as well.

Option two is a given.

You Decide…..

8/1/2018 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 81 points (-0.32%) and the Nasdaq up 35 points (+0.46%) 

There is very little to add to the analysis presented here over the last few weeks/days.If you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our mathematical and timing work, please Click Here. 

Today’s FED decision on interest rates was “as expected snooze fest”. Here is a very good look at the subject matter.

Word of the Day “Strong”: Just Not Strong Enough to Hike

The word of the day is “strong”. The Fed used that word five times. The Fed’s actual action was not strong.

Fed Ups Economy from Solid to Strong

Words Strong, Action Weak

The Fed elected to hold interest rate at 1-3/4 to 2 percent.

This is rather simple at this point. As we have discussed here in the past the FED will continue to hike interest rates. They have no choice. The next recession and everything bubble collapse is coming and they need ammunition to fight it. Having said that, it is a little too late. Flat and soon to be inverted yield curve is already doing massive damage to our debt driven bubble economy.

Bubble, what Bubble? ….this bubble. 

This Favorite Warren Buffett Metric Tells Us a Stock Market Crash Could Be Coming

This simple indicator, Market Cap/GDP, has been incredibly accurate in the past. That is why I often laugh at money managers talking about Value in this market. There isn’t any, not by a long shot. So much so that today’s valuation levels are the highest in history. We have discussed that in the past.

Over the last few years Mr. Buffett has suggested that it is a no brainer to invest in America over the long-term. And while he might be right over the long-term, do as he does and not as he says.

After all, the lack of attractive investment opportunities has resulted in Berkshire Hathaway accumulating nearly $110 billion of cash and equivalents on its balance sheet.

That is to say, Mr. Buffett is hoarding cash and waiting for much lower stock prices. And so should you.

If you would like to find out when the next collapse happens, based on our mathematical and timing work, please Click Here. 

7/31/2018 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 108 points (+0.43%) and the Nasdaq up 41 points (+0.55%)

Thus far, the market action has been consistent with what we have discussed in our weekly update.If you would like to find out what happens next, in both price and time, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here

As we have covered before Trump Becomes An Inflation Expert Overnight – Launches Unprecedented Attack On The FED

Ron Paul has excellent point of view on the subject matter as well and I highly encourage you to read it in full.

Trump’s Tweets End the Myth of Fed Independence

President Trump’s recent Tweets expressing displeasure with the Federal Reserve’s (minor) interest rate increases led to accusations that President Trump is undermining the Federal Reserve’s independence. But, the critics ignore the fact that Federal Reserve “independence” is one of the great myths of American politics.

When it comes to intimidating the Federal Reserve, President Trump pales in comparison to President Lyndon Johnson. After the Federal Reserve increased interest rates in 1965, President Johnson summoned then-Fed Chairman William McChesney Martin to Johnson’s Texas ranch where Johnson shoved him against the wall. Physically assaulting the Fed chairman is probably a greater threat to Federal Reserve independence than questioning the Fed’s policies on Twitter.

While Johnson is an extreme example, history is full of cases where presidents pressured the Federal Reserve to adopt policies compatible with the presidents’ agendas — and helpful to their reelection campaigns. Presidents have been pressuring the Fed since its creation. President Warren Harding called on the Fed to lower rates. Richard Nixon was caught on tape joking with then-Fed chair Arthur Burns about Fed independence. And Lloyd Bentsen, President Bill Clinton’s first Treasury secretary, bragged about a “gentleman’s agreement” with then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan.

As always, Mr. Paul is dead on the money here.

Yet, here is what almost all observers are missing about today’s environment.

First, the FED is raising interest rates to re-load for the next recession and market bloodbath. They know what they have done, what’s coming and what they need to do now in order to soften the blow.

And should they fail to re-load, the next recession or “Everything Bubble” implosion will end the USA as we know it.

Second, as we have discussed before FED Powell Confirms – Yield Curve Inversion Imminent, it no longer matters if the actual yield curves inverts or not. The damage has already been done by flattening and it is only a matter of time before the mother of all recessions hits Mr. Trump’s perfect economy.

Our timing and mathematical work tends to confirm all of the above. If you would like to find out exactly when the stock market will crater, in both price and time, please Click Here